Joe DiCarlo 
First off I want to congratulate our long-time member Scottd923 on his milestone of a takedown last weekend of $500K, our Discord was popping bottles of champagne for you last Sunday evening as the clocks struck 0:00 on the late slate! Just goes to show everybody how hard work and a little luck can pay off tremendously in DFS. Onto the slate, we’re back to 12 games again… awesome! I love the matchups this weekend. The field will be stacking the Miami/Buffalo game, but the Chargers/Raiders and Rams/Colts contests also offer totals in the high forties with ways to get away from chalk.
I’m Joe DiCarlo, feel free to tag me @DiCarlo78 in our Discord or any of our other experts for building advice and questions. Be sure to check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Now let’s get into The Week Four Game by Game Breakdown…
Sunday Main Slate 10/1/23
Commanders @ Eagles (-8) (O/U 44.5)
The Commanders hit rock bottom hosting the Bills, getting waxed 37-3 last weekend. Sam Howell turned the ball over with four picks, keeping his defense on the field way too long and folding to the Bills’ pressure. They’ll have an even stricter matchup this weekend on the road, but the Eagles rank 31st in DVOA to opposing tight ends. Logan Thomas is still pretty banged up, so consider Cole Turner or John Bates for some cap savings.
Fly Eagles fly to stay undefeated at 4-0. Jalen Hurts and company should put up a big early lead, then ride their bread-and-butter run-game featuring D’Andre Swift and Kenneth Gainwell. If you can afford to squeeze in the Philly DST, be my guest. On this slate paying up on a defense may be too risky especially if Washington puts up some garbage time points.
Dolphins @ Bills (-3) (O/U 53.5)
This matchup needs no introduction, pick your poison between the Dolphins and Bills players. They’re all in play for this AFC East divisional contest. I see them going toe to toe on Sunday afternoon, so save your salary cap space. We already know the studs in Stefon Diggs ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel) and Tyreek Hill ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel), but who in this matchup can we sneak in our lineups past the field? Quarterbacks Josh Allen ($8,200 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) and Tua Tagovailoa ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) will also be too chalky. I’m kind of thinking of the WR 2’s getting a little underappreciated here. Gabe Davis ($5,900 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) and Jaylen Waddle ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel) could easily blow the doors off the hinges in Week Four, consider them for GPPs.
Let’s not forget about these running backs either. We all have seen the highlights (Eight touchdowns split between them) for Raheem Mostert ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel) and Devon Achane ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) by now, but James Cook has the best opportunity in the game. He currently ranks third in rushing (267) and faces a Dolphins defense averaging 131 rushing yards allowed per game. Start your engines and buckle up fellas, this is the game of the week.
Vikings @ Panthers (+3.5) (O/U 45)
Looks like the rookie Bryce Young practiced this week, so he should be back in the rotation. Do we want him back for fantasy though? Andy Dalton was over 5X his salary filling in with 26.5 DK PTS. last weekend, like other DFS players, I would prefer the red-head against a gross Minnesota secondary. Adam Thielen ($4,500 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is the only Panther I’m interested in on the roster this weekend, as he returns to his former team and roots in the perfect “Revenge Game” narrative. He’s been the clear-cut WR1 for the offense this season, in three games he caught 20 passes for 211 yards and two touchdowns.
The Vikes have been stellar for fantasy but have stunk in reality football with a 0-3 start. Kirk Cousins has been lightning in a bottle leading the NFL in pass attempts (138), yardage (1,075), and touchdowns (9). There will be a sense of urgency for Minnesota to get into the win column, using Justin Jefferson and TJ Hockenson will be locked as usual for DFS. Running back Cam Akers will be worked into the offense this weekend, and will tone down the volume of Alexander Mattison, so consider fading the Minnesota backfield until we see the snap share.
Ravens @ Browns (-2.5) (O/U 41)
Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) has re-emerged for DFS thanks to his legs and the depleted backfield of the Ravens, rushing for 101 yards and two touchdowns in Week Three. Now with OBJ and Rashod Bateman continuing to miss practice, Zay Flowers ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) should again command the target share (29.8%). The Browns’ defense ($2,800 DraftKings/$4,300 FanDuel) however is no walk in the park, so Lamar and company may be wise to not chase.
The Ravens’ defense has made some noise themselves racking up 11 sacks in their first three games. Their secondary has been beatable though, ranking 25th in the league, and will be without Marlon Humphrey again. Amari Cooper ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) and Elijah Moore ($4,700 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel) make affordable options at receiver for Cleveland.
Update: Odell Becham Jr. and Rashod Bateman are out!
Steelers @ Texans (+3) (O/U 42)
The running game has been gross in Pittsburgh as Najee Harris ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) and Jaylen Warren ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) have combined to average 3.6 yards per carry through three weeks. They draw a bottom-of-the-barrel run defense (25th in DVOA) in Houston, putting themselves in a break-out week at affordable pricing for DFS.
C.J. Stroud has been rock-solid as a cheap option at quarterback for DFS three weeks in a row, can he make it four? I’m more than happy to roll the dice one more time, especially with Nico Collins ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel) and Tank Dell ($4,600 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel). Running back Dameon Pierce ($5,100 DraftKings/$ 6,300 FanDuel) is due himself for a big game, he’ll face a Steelers team that has been abused on the ground allowing over 150 yards per.
Bengals @ Titans (+2.5) (O/U 41.5)
Joe Burrow ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) escaped re-injuring his calf and coming out on top Monday night, thanks to Ja’Maar Chase’s ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) 12 receptions on 15 targets for 141 yards. The dynamic duo gets rewarded with the Titans in Week Four, who will allow you to run track meets on their lackluster coverage (29th in DVOA).
The wheels are beginning to fall off the Derrick Henry train, as he’s been averaging a skanky 3.2 yards per carry to start the season. On another note, the rookie Tyjae Spears has been averaging a studly 5.5 yards per carry along with nine receptions. But as long as Henry is available, Spears‘ fantasy value is capped. Tennessee has been a dumpster fire for fantasy at this point, stand clear.
Honorable Mention (Squeaky Wheel): Tee Higgins
Bucs @ Saints (-3.5) (O/U 40.5)
Baker and the Bucs finally showed their true colors against a better team in the Eagles and will get a double dose of reality in New Orleans. Mike Evans has been owned by Marshon Lattimore’s coverage over the years (15 receptions since 2020), so this could be a Chris Godwin ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) week on the opposite side of the field.
Jameis Winston ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) could get another crack at his former team filling in for the injured Derek Carr, but that news will be a game-time decision. The last time he aimed for revenge the Florida State Seminole former number one pick tore his ACL. The real piece of the Saints I’d be interested in would be a re-instated Alvin Kamara ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) With Jamaal Williams on IR and only Tony Jones Jr. and Kendre Miller to fend off, Kamara will slide right back into the lead role.
Update: Derek Carr will PLAY
Broncos @ Bears (+3) (O/U 46)
Denver gave up 70 points last week… I mean where do I begin? Patrick Surtain had no help at safety (Justin Simmons sat out) which allowed the Dolphins to run up and down the open field. The game was over by halftime last week, but I expect them to bounce back against a Bears team allowing 31 points per game. From Russell Wilson ($5,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) down to Marvin Mims ($3,900 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel), the Broncos offer little risk with high reward value because of their inexpensive salaries.
On the same token, the Bears are in the same boat. Justin Fields ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) finally will see a defense to feast on, but does he still have anything left in the tank? From the fantasy numbers, he put up last season (back-to-back 40-point performances) I would say it’s go time. Keep in mind when two bad defensive teams meet during the season, it usually ends up being a back-and-forth contest for fantasy, make sure to use some Bears and Broncos pieces this weekend.
Honorable Mentions: Courtland Sutton; Jerry Jeudy; Javonte Williams
Rams @ Colts (-1.5) (O/U 47)
The Rams’ offense came to a screeching halt Monday night against Cincinnati, but Indy will be another story. The Colts allow you to move the chains, averaging 365 total yards per game. The Rams will be in a bounce-back scenario, lifting back up the DFS ladder will be Matt Stafford ($5,700 DraftKings/$ 6,600 FanDuel) Kyren Williams ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel), Puca Nacua ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel), and TuTu Atwell. ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel)
The Colts should get rookie phenom Anthony Richardson ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) back this week from concussion protocols, offering a boatload of upside at quarterback. This will boost Zack Moss’ efficiency even more, after his 30 carries and 100-yard back-to-back games. Richardson’s dual-threat attributes continue to freeze linebackers, allowing Zack Moss ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) in for some serious damage on the ground.
Honorable Mention: Michael Pittman
Update: Colts’ O-line Ryan Kelly (C); Quenton Nelson (G); and Bernhard Rainmann (OT) are all OUT
Raiders @ Chargers (-6) (U/O 48)
Jimmy Garoppolo still hasn’t cleared his concussion protocol, so we may get some 38-year-old Brian Hoyer in LA this weekend. Either way, Davante Adams ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) is the main cog of the Raiders’ offense no matter who is throwing the ball. Coming off 13 receptions off 20 targets for 172 yards and two touchdowns, the Chargers secondary is in trouble. Jakobi Meyers ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) would be just as useful in this matchup considering the price difference from Adams.
Bolts up! Chargers finally pulled out a win and look to make it two I. A row at home. Now they’ve lost Mike Williams for the year, so even more volume will be headed in Keenan Allen’s ($7,900 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel) direction. Stepping in for the injured Williams will be Josh Palmer ($4,000 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) and first-round pick Quentin Johnston ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) Raiders’ corner Nate Hobbs will have his hands full. Eat the safe chalk across all Cash and GPP formats in a high-powered offense led by Justin Herbert ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,600 FanDuel) who averages well over 40 passing attempts per game.
Update: Jimmy G is OUT…Aiden O’Connell is in for Vegas at quarterback, Game flow could be a factor now with Justin Herbert
Cardinals @ Niners (-14) (U/O 44.5)
Fresh off their upset win hosting the Cowboys, the Cardinals now head out on the road for another tough matchup as two-touchdown dogs to the Forty-Niners. As much as I love rooting for the underdog, anyone you roster from the Cardinals against this suffocating Niner’s defense is a pure GPP ticket option. Hollywood Brown ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,00 FanDuel) has been filling the stat sheet with back-to-back touchdown weeks, consider him for a dart in a GPP.
San Fransisco is the team to beat again in the NFC, and if they play the way they should, The Cardinals will not have an answer for the amount of firepower they possess. If Arizona lays down and it does become a blowout, then Christian McCaffrey ($9,200 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel) may be resting in the fourth quarter, possibly burning fantasy managers. Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) and George Kittle ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) make the most sense to roster, as they are priced just right, not to mention Deebo Samuel may sit this game out with bruised ribs.
Update: Elijah Mitchell is OUT/Deebo Samuel expected to PLAY!
Patriots @ Cowboys (-7) (O/U 43.5)
Mac Jones ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) has quietly become more of a gunslinger rather than a game-manager here in 2023, ranking third in pass attempts (125) and deep balls (16). The Cowboys have shown their weakness without Trevon Diggs by losing to the Cardinals, opening the door for Mac to get in work. Oh and by the way, Zeke Elliot ($5,100 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) is back in town after being released by the Cowboys in the offseason. He gets in the endzone if given the goal-line opportunity,
Dem’ Boyz will be out for blood this weekend after the embarrassing loss to the Cards on the road. Belichick will slow down the tempo, but Tony Pollard ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) has a big reason to carve up the Pats’ front seven. While leading the league in weighted opportunities (59) and red zone touches (27), Pollard could serve as the reverse revenge game narrative, reminding Zeke why he was shown the door. Tight end Jake Fergusen ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) does interest me too, as he leads the league in red zone targets with nine.
Cash Core
Josh Allen/Josh Palmer/D’Andre Swift/TJ Hockenson
GPP Core
Justin Fields/Ja’Marr Chase/Javonte Williams/Jaylen Waddle
Stacks
Allen/Diggs/Davis/Knox
Tua/Waddle/Hill
Herbert/Allen/Palmer/Johnston
Fields/Jeudy/Sutton/Williams (runbacks)
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 4. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for a 3-day, weekly, monthly, and annual membership here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
