Joe DiCarlo 
Week Two was a roller coaster, some of us just made it across the pay lines and some saw takedowns in GPPs. One take of mine from Week two as I mentioned in the breakdown, Puca Nacua is matchup proof! If you kept riding the hot hand with him, for DFS, you cashed in more tickets. On to Week Three! The injury bug bit the NFL across the league last weekend, including superstar running back Nick Chubb. With a ton of value on this slate it can again get pretty chalky, so let’s think outside the box for GPPs. Cash games are a priority in my book, stay right here as I dissect the players to consider in each matchup.
I’m Joe DiCarlo, feel free to tag me @DiCarlo78 in our Discord or any of our other experts for building advice and questions. Be sure to check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Now let’s get into The Week Three Game by Game Breakdown…
Sunday Main Slate 9/24/23
Bills @ Commanders (+6.5) (O/U 45)
Bills Mafia was back in full effect last weekend, as we watched Josh Allen ($8,100 DraftKinks/$8,800 FanDuel) spread the ball around the Vegas secondary in Buffalo. He was a cash game darling, and why not let it ride with him again? It’s tough to figure out which receiver to stack along with Allen week in and out, but running back James Cook ($6,400 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel) has stepped forward as the clear lead back in Buffalo. His opportunity share skyrocketed in Week Two averaging over seven yards per carry (17ATT/123YDS). Stefon Diggs‘ ($8,100 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) high floor also keeps him in the cash game conversation, as usual.
I never expected such a high-scoring game in Denver with the Commanders, but it happened as they pulled out with a win last weekend. Washington rode the coattails of running back Brian Robinson Jr.($5,800 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel), who dominated the goal line opportunities and scored two touchdowns. His salary on DK is still below $6K, take advantage of his price tag before it climbs again.
Update: Logan Thomas is OUT…Cole Turner ($2,700 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) as your GPP dart throw.
By all means, if you are looking for a cheap defense to pivot to, the Commanders at ($2,400 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel) have scored ten and eleven fantasy points this year, and we know Josh Allen is no stranger to turning the ball over.
Honorable Mention: Dalton Kincaid ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel)
Texans @ Jaguars (-8.5) (O/U 44.5)
Houston’s top prospect quarterback C.J. Stroud ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has been given a long leash to start the season. The Ohio State product has slung it 91 times in just two games, completing 58 passes for 626 yards. The Jags currently are 29th in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks, but the coaching staff will have him on a throwing count due to a sore shoulder. Pairing him with Nico Collins ($5,300 DraftKings/6,900 FanDuel) would’ve made a lot of lineups for me, coming off a 7 REC/146 YDS/1 TD stat line. But it’s a little risky for cash, I’d only take my shot in tournaments with the Texan duo.
The Jags broke a lot of hearts last weekend in Kansas City, as we watched Trevor Lawrence put up a depressing 10.2 fantasy points. He may struggle again with the Texans who’ve had his number, holding him without a passing touchdown in 2022. Travis Etienne ($6,900 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) may be more appealing this week against a Houston front seven that has been bludgeoned by opposing running backs again this season (24th in DVOA). Zay Jones will not be suiting up as well, so we may see a repeat performance of a Christian Kirk ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,500 FanDuel) target funnel.
Honorable Mention: Tank Dell ($3,600 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel)
Broncos @ Dolphins (-6.5) (O/U 48)
Broncos head coach Sean Payton may have finally cleared the cobwebs from Russell Wilson ($5,900 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel), putting up 30 fantasy points in Week Two. We would have to make a strong case to use Russ against Miami in another potential high-scoring game. Consider getting different here at running back too, Javonte Williams ($5,500 DraftKings/$ 6,100 FanDuel) is quietly ramping up this season, especially in the passing game. With nine targets to start the year along with 25 rushing attempts, this could be a Javonte breakout in Miami who averages 161 yards per game to opposing running backs.
Miami has been lights out to start the season led by Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) and Tyreek Hill ($9,000 DraftKings/$9,600 FanDuel). The duo has combined for 16 receptions, 255 yards, and three touchdowns, and could add tremendously to that total on Sunday if Jaylen Waddle cannot clear the concussion protocol by Sunday. Veteran running back Raheem Mostert $6,000 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) has also been white-hot, rushing for 121 yards and two touchdowns against a stingy Patriot defense Sunday Night.
Honorable Mentions: Braxton Berrios ($3,600 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel If Waddle is a no-go)
Update: Jaylen Waddle is OUT
Colts @ Ravens (-7.5) (O/U 44)
The Colts may be missing their dynamic rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson due to concussion protocols, opening the door for Gardner Minshew to possibly start in Baltimore. Running back Zack Moss looked awesome in his 2023 debut last weekend racking up over 20 fantasy points. But the Colts may be in over their heads on the road in Baltimore this weekend. The Ravens rank fourth in the league in stopping the run (69 YDS/game), and I can’t rely on Minshew to get the ball out in a potential hurricane with a backup center snapping him the ball. Pay up a spot for the Ravens DST ($3,700 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) in a potential washout, and keep an eye on weather reports.
Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) has arrived for fantasy ladies and gentlemen, and he gets another great matchup at home against the Colts. He completed 77% of his passes for 237 yards and two touchdowns in Cincinnati while adding 54 yards on the ground. Roll him out naked for cash or pair him with an affordable wide receiver of Zay Flowers ($5,400 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) especially with OBJ already ruled out. The Ravens will face the second-worst passing defense in football, but we may get a lot of rain on Jackson’s parade. The clear pivot would be to running back Gus Edwards ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel), who will command the backfield due to an injured Justice Hill.
Falcons @ Lions (-3.5) (O/U 47)
The young and up-and-coming Falcons will bring their unblemished 2-0 record into the Motor City this Sunday, who finally may be turning to Desmond Ridder ($5,000 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) through the air. The second-year signal caller threw for 237 yards and a touchdown on 32 attempts, adding a touchdown with his legs. Rookie phenom Bijan Robinson ($7,800 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) is quickly running away with the feature role at running back in Atlanta, as he out-snapped Tyler Allgeier 92-65. We’ve all seen our fair share as he’s accrued 180 yards already with ten receptions and a touchdown.
Jared Goff ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) at home and indoors (13,432 yards and 85 touchdowns in 51 home games) has been a blessing for DFS managers, and we get another opportunity on this slate. Although stud receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900 DraftKings/FanDuel) has a bruised toe, he can still be a factor along with tight end Sam La Porta ($4,000 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel) and receiver Josh Reynolds ($4,200 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel). Running back David Montgomerey’s status is looking murky this week, which will lead to more opportunities for Jahmyr Gibbs and possibly Craig Reynolds, but the usage will be unclear. Keep the Lions’ running backs in GPPs only.
Chargers @ Vikings (+1) (O/U 54)
As the Vikings and Chargers sit at 0-2 both teams enter this weekend desperate for a win. The 54-point total in a climate-controlled environment spells a fantasy all-you-can-eat buffet. Kirk Cousins ($6,900 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) starts Week Three as QB 1 for the season, as he has easily moved the ball averaging 44 attempts per game with six touchdowns to teammates Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DraftKings/$9,700 FanDuel), T.J. Hockenson ($6,500 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) and the rookie Jordan Addison ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel).
News broke this afternoon that Chargers running back Austin Ekeler will miss his second straight contest, putting Josh Kelly ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) back into the chalkiest player for DFS in back-to-back weeks. The game script will also fit the usual Bolts partakers. Justin Herbert ($7,500 DraftKings/$8,400 Fanduel) will seek to air it out once again, leading the league in deep ball attempts (13) and second in red zone attempts (15). Keenan Allen ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel) and Mike Williams ($5,700 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) will get plenty of opportunities once again this weekend.
Cowboys @ Cardinals (+12) (O/U 43.5)
The Cowboys have made mince meat of their inferior opponents to start 2-0, dominating both sides of the ball. Their schedule continues to be a cakewalk as they prance into the desert in Arizona. Tony Pollard ($8,000 DraftKings/$9,400 FanDuel) and Cee Dee Lamb ($7,700 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) have been the backbone of the offense for Dallas, as well as their suffocating defense led by Micah Parsons.
The Cardinals went down in history last week, blowing a 28-point halftime lead to the Giants. The road will get even bumpier in Week Three facing the NFL’s top-ranked defense. Tight end Zach Ertz ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) continues to be quarterback Josh Dobbs’s man crush, leading the league in targets (18) and target share percentage (30.5%).
Bears @ Chiefs (-13) (O/U 48)
Chicago is another team yet to find the win column, and the 13-point spread says they will keep looking into Week Four. Quarterback Justin Fields has not been his 2022 self, rushing for only 62 yards and only a 65% completion rate. Until we see the Bears turn things around offensively, the only reasonable play would be rookie running back Roschon Johnson ($4,700 DraftKings/FanDuel), whereas out of Bears’ camp, his role will grow this weekend, making him a GPP separator.
It wasn’t pretty in Jacksonville last weekend, but the Chiefs pulled out an uncomfortable win on the road. Travis Kelce was not himself coming off a bruised knee but did manage to find the end zone. Expect Pat Mahomes ($8,300 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) to return home and get all his ducks in a row against a Bears defense that has allowed 377 total yards per game so far this year. Pay attention to Isaiah Pacheco’s ($5,400 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) hamstring as most of the damage is done on the ground to Chicago. Jerrick McKinnon ($4,500 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) could see an increase in workload if Pacheco is out.
Titans @ Browns (-3.5) (O/U 39.5)
As the Derrick Henry train slowly starts to derail while he averages 3.6 yards per carry so far in 2023, and could even see Tajae Spears step into the mix sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, DeAndre Hopkins has been averaging nine targets per game, But he’s questionable for Sunday. Even if he does give it a go, Hopkins only scored eight fantasy points last week. Tennessee facing this down-and-dirty Browns defense, I won’t lose sleep by fading the Titans this weekend.
Cleveland and Deshaun Watson were terrorized on Monday night by the Steelers and TJ Watt but should recover this weekend. Watson ($6,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) will face a pressure-free, pass-funnel defense ranked 28th in passing yards allowed, which will also favor Amari Cooper ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel), who is nicely priced on the slate. Sadly we saw running back Nick Chubb go down for the season also on Monday night, promoting Jerome Ford ($4,800 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel) to the top of the depth chart. Ford put up 27 DK PTS. in just three quarters of play against Pittsburgh.
Patriots @ Jets (+3) (O/U 36.5)
The total of this AFC matchup is nauseating at 36.5 but does offer an option for both the Jets and Patriots defenses. New York will hide the quarterback for every possession while the Pats will have an uphill battle to move the football against a young and hungry Jets defense. Patriot tight end Hunter Henry ($4,100 DraftKings/$5,700 FanDuel) does offer us some salary relief, scoring a touchdown in both games this season while facing a Jets team ranked 26th in fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Until New York can fix their problem again at quarterback with Zach Wilson, the Jets will be a cheat code for opposing defenses. Coach Belichick looks forward to humiliating Gang Green twice a year, so the Patriots DST ($3,500 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel) is a lock this weekend. Weather will play also play a role on Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium and the Jets DST ($2,800 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) will be heavily owned because of the discount for a defense.
Saints @ Packers (-2) (U/O 42.5)
Jordan Love ($5,600 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) has been the only quarterback to throw three touchdowns with no interceptions in both games this season, the Packers knew what they were sitting on since 2020. Running back Aaron Jones seems to still be bothered by a hamstring, and I’m not willing to start AJ Dillon again for DFS if Jones is a no-show. The Saints’ defense has been frugal to opposing offenses, rolling Love out naked may be the only path if you like the Packers this week.
New Orleans running backs are dropping like flies as Jamaal Williams has already been ruled out this weekend. The journeyman Tony Jones Jr. stepped up for two touchdowns in the Carolina victory, but the rookie Kendre Miller ($4,300 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) may be featured. His salary is extremely favorable in a matchup against a Packers team that has allowed 166 yards per game to opposing running backs.
Panthers @ Seahawks (-6) (U/O 42)
Carolina will sit rookie Bryce Young out this week for an ankle injury and will start Andy Dalton in Week Three. This change of pace at quarterback will give the offense a shot of better decision-making with the football. Look for Miles Sanders ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) to see an increase in volume, facing Seattle’s bottom ten run defense. Pass-catchers Adam Thielen ($3,900 DraftKIngs/$5,700 FanDuel) DJ Chark ($3,800 DraftKings/$5,600 FanDuel), and Hayden Hurst ($3,800 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) will also see more accurate targets, but I would only look to Carolina’s receiving core for salary relief for GPP tournaments.
Geno Smith ($5,700nDraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) does it again, proving the haters wrong in 2023 that last year wasn’t a fluke. He threw for 328 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, but his arm could take the afternoon off this weekend. Seahawks back Kenneth Walker ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,600 FanDuel) struggled in his last matchup but did find the endzone twice. This week may tell a different story, as he’ll attack a Panthers’ run defense that could not stop a runny nose (31st in DVOA).
Cash Core
Cousins/Jefferson/Kelley/Ertz
GPP Core
Wilson/Mostert/Lamb/Hockenson
Stacks
Cousins/Jefferson/Addison/Hockenson
Herbert/Allen/Williams/Kelly
Goff/ARSB/Reynolds/Bijan (runback)
Dak/Lamb/Pollard/Ertz (runback)
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 3. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for a 3-day, weekly, monthly, and annual membership here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
