Joe DiCarlo 
Week One is in the books, but let’s keep the momentum going for our bankrolls as we dive into this breakdown for Week Two of DFS. The 12-game slate loses last week’s top fantasy scorer Tyreek Hill (47.5 DK PTS.), who we were all over like a wet blanket in our first article of the season. However, we do get the Chiefs back on Sunday afternoon along with a couple of other matchups with close to a 50-point total. That’s usually my first line of attack, game totals, but so is most of the field. The public will be expecting a huge bounce-back from Kansas City after their loss in the opener, so let’s zig when they zag and get creative to cross the pay line.
I’m Joe DiCarlo, feel free to tag me @DiCarlo78 in our Discord or any of our other experts for building advice and questions. Be sure also to check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. The Week Two Game by Game is locked and loaded for you to dissect at your convenience, Now let’s roll!
Sunday Main Slate 9/17/23
Chiefs @ Jaguars (+3) (O/U 51)
The defending Super Bowl champs were embarrassed at home in the season opener by Detroit, and sit in a great position to bounce back in Duval County. If the Chiefs get a healthy Travis Kelce ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel) back on the field, he could see 15-plus targets since nobody else was able to catch anything in his absence. Clearly, there was a lack of communication and execution against the Lions, but expect Patrick Mahomes ($8,300 DraftKings/$9,000 FanDuel) to redeem himself against a Jaguars defense he faced twice last season, completing 74% of his passes totaling six touchdowns to one interception.
Jacksonville looked fresh in Week One, with a come-from-behind win in the fourth quarter by Trevor Lawrence ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) on back-to-back touchdown passes. If you rolled the dice on Calvin Ridley ($7,200 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel), you were heavily rewarded for DFS. The Alabama product went for 8REC/101YDS/1TD on 11 targets in his first game since Week Nine of 2021. If you’re looking for a discount at receiver in this potential shootout, Christian Kirk ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,000 FanDuel) may re-emerge this week if he gets some one-on-one coverage.
Honorable mention: Isaiah Pacheco ($5,700 DraftKings/FanDuel)
Update: Kelce expected to play; gametime decision
Seahawks @ Lions (-5.5) (O/U 49)
Geno Smith put up a dud at home in Week One, barely breaking the century mark in passing yardage as Seattle was upset by the Rams. It may turn out to be another uphill battle for him in Detroit, whose defense led by C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Aidan Hutchinson put the KC offense in a vise last week. I would steer clear of Seattle players other than DK Metcalf ($7,000 DraftKings/$7,700 FanDuel) whose 6’4″/235 lbs. frame continues to be a mismatch for opposing cornerbacks and safeties.
The Lions just keep over-achieving, playing their hearts out with nothing to lose, and it shows on the field. Jared Goff ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) has been electrifying indoors. Against Seattle at home in 2022, he had one of his best games with a 378 YDS/4TDS stat line. A Lion stack with Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) and Sam La Porta ($3,900 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) is legit.
Honorable Mention: Josh Reynolds ($3,900 DraftKings/$5,900 FanDuel)
Chargers @ Titans (+3) (O/U 45.5)
LA came up short hosting Miami, running into a Tyreek Hill buzzsaw which lit up the stale Brandon Staley playbook. Justin Herbert ($7,000 DraftKings/$8,200 FanDuel) and company will look to get into the win column in Tennessee, whose secondary remains at the bottom of the league (29th in DVOA to opposing receivers). Mixing and stacking Keenan Allen ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,800 FanDuel) and Mike Williams ($5,700 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel) is ideal. Keep an eye on Austin Ekeler and his ankle, If he continues to miss practice and is forced out of action, then Josh Kelly ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) is a lock.
Is the Derrick Henry ($7,400 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel) era coming to an end in Tennessee? The Bama bell cow only carried the ball 15 times and caught three passes for 56 yards, but was out-snapped 48% to Tajae Spears’54%. However, Tennessee may be ramping up King Henry. Last season in Week Three he broke out for 143 rushing yards with a touchdown, and he’ll face a Chargers defense that allowed the 31-year-old Raheem Mostert to hit paydirt twice in Week One.
Update: Austin Ekeler is out! DeAndre Hopkins will Play!
Ravens @ Bengals (-3.5) (O/U 46.5)
Lamar Jackson showed us some rust in Week One, only giving managers a dismal 8.6 fantasy points. He did average over six yards per carry on six attempts, but until his new O.C.Todd Monken draws up fewer passing plays, we can’t use Lamar. Rookie wideout Zay Flowers ($5,000 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) looked like the focal point of the offense, seeing 10 targets for 9REC/78YDS. Tight end Mark Andrews ($6,300 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) could see the field this weekend to resume his role as Lamar’s top receiving option, so Zay may see a slight decrease in the target share.
The Browns have owned Joe Burrow ($6,900 DradtKings/$7,400 FanDuel), denying him to move the football and getting benched in the fourth quarter. We’ve seen this scenario play out before though, he’ll get back up to speed at home and put up QB1 numbers after taking a beating just like last season’s Week One against Pittsburgh. He should get back on the right page with his right-hand man Ja’Maar Chase ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) who has smoked Baltimore’s Marlon Humphrey in both prior meetings, totaling 17REC/170YDS/2TDS.
Honorable Mention: Tee Higgins ($6,400 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) (GPPs for low ownership)
Update: Mark Andrews will PLAY!
Packers @ Falcons (+1) (O/U 40.5)
Jordan Love ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel) was the only quarterback in Week One to throw for three touchdowns with no interceptions, showing us the years behind Aaron Rodgers has paid off. Although Atlanta held Carolina to only 127 PaYDS last weekend, Love is no rookie, and will find ways to get the ball to Romeo Doubs ($4,800 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel).
Keep an eye on injury reports for Aaron Jones too. The veteran back hasn’t practiced all week after tweaking his hamstring in Chicago. AJ Dillon ($5,900 DraftKings/$7,000 FanDuel) would inherit the Packers’ backfield if Jones can’t suit up in Atlanta.
Head coach Arthur Smith is clearly playing “hide the quarterback” with Desmond Ridder, focusing the entire Atlanta offense around Bijon Robinson ($7,900 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel) and Tyler Allgeier ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) running the rock. The duo combined for 131 RuYDS and three touchdowns, adding nine receptions against Carolina. Avoid the air attack and stick with the ground game for the Falcons in DFS until further notice.
Honorable Mention: Luke Musgrave ($3,200 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel)
Update: Christian Watson and Aaron Jones are OUT! Start up AJ Dillon and Romeo Doubs.
Bears @ Bucs (-3) (O/U 41.5)
Chicago suffered a disappointing loss in their home opener, as we watched Justin Fields struggle to throw the ball completing only 64% of his passes. Although he did rack up 59 yards on the ground with only nine carries, Fields ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,000 FanDuel) is best this week to roll out naked for DFS until he can make a few of his weapons more viable besides Darnell Mooney.
Baker and the Bucs shocked the league after stealing a win in Minnesota. I know it’s gross even thinking about it, but what’s to stop him going 2-0? Mayfield ($5,100 DraftKings/$6,800 FanDuel) is still under-priced, and can easily triple his salary again by utilizing Mike Evans ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,100 FanDuel) and Chris Godwin ($6,000 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) against a Bears defense that is currently 30th in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks and receivers.
Honorable Mention: Rachaad White ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel)
Raiders @ Bills (-9.5) (O/U 48)
It was a sloppy victory for Vegas in Denver, but it may be some light at the end of the tunnel in Buffalo. We witnessed the Jets Breece Hall smack the Bills‘ front seven in the mouth on Monday night. If Josh Jacobs ($7,100 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) can shake off the rest of his rust he may in fact dominate running the football while holding on to an 88% opportunity share in Week One.
Not only did Josh Allen and the Bills turn the ball over four times, but they also lost to Zach Wilson. Expect the Bills and Allen ($7,900 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel) to come out guns blazing at home against the Raiders’ young secondary. Of course, Stefon Diggs ($8,000 DraftKings/FanDuel) and James Cook ($6,100 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel) make a nice compliment to their quarterback at home as well.
Honorable Mention: Davante Adams ($7,600 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) (Jakobi Meyers is OUT!)
Colts @ Texans (+2.5) (O/U 40)
How about that rookie Anthony Richardson ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel)? He proved to the world he could be fantasy-viable scoring over 21 fantasy points against Jacksonville in a close game. He gets another great matchup against Houston, who continues to rank at the bottom of the league in rushing defense (23rd DVOA). Now that Zack Moss ($4,700 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) has been given the all-clear from the Colts’ medical team, he’ll also feast on the Texans. The Colt’s DST ($3,400 DraftKings/$4,800) is another option for defense, especially with C.J. Stroud’s name on the Texan’s Friday injury report.
The second-overall pick C.J. Stroud was quiet in his debut, throwing for 242 yards, 11 of his attempts went to second-year receiver Nico Collins ($4,800 DraftKings/$6,200 FanDuel). Anticipate Collins to see even more looks this Sunday against a Colts’ secondary ranking 26th in the league in pass coverage.
Niners @ Rams (+8) (O/U 44)
San Fransisco steam-rolled through Pittsburgh 30-7 on Sunday, easily seizing the victory. “Mr. Irrelevant” Broock Purdy was flawless finding Brandon Aiyuk twice in the endzone. But we all know the Niners’ fantasy carousel will spin elsewhere on the offense and could feature more of Deebo Samuel ($5,600 DraftKings/$6,900 FanDuel). Since 2021, Samuels has owned the Rams, in three games catching 15REC/307YDS/3TDS with one rushing touchdown.
Matt Stafford played with a chip on his shoulder for the Rams, winning on the road in Seattle passing for 334 yards. He also made a new BFF, and his name is Puka Nacua ($4,900 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel). Stafford had him dialed in for 15 targets, catching 10REC/119YDS. The Niners’ defense will be waiting for Nacua, but his pricetag outweighs the matchup here.
Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey ($8,900 DraftKings/$9,500 FanDuel)
Giants @ Cardinals (+4) (O/U 40.5)
New York was humiliated at home by the Cowboys 40-0, mainly due to a combination of a suffocating defense and inclement weather. Daniel Jones ($6,000 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel) all but accumulated seven fantasy points, but gets the primo matchup in Arizona. He’ll move the sticks with feature tight end Darren Waller ($5,500 DraftKings/$6,600 FanDuel), but only if he can’t shake a lingering hamstring. The Giants will also lean on their crutch of the offense Saquon Barkley ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel), and I’d be dumbfounded if he doesn’t find the endzone this weekend in the desert.
We can’t fathom rostering any Cardinals this season until Kyler Murray gets back on the field. Fill-in quarterback Josh Dobbs last season in Tennessee did build up tight end Chig Okonkwo’s fantasy value, and now doing the same with Zach Ertz ($3,500 Draftkings/$4,900 FanDuel). In Week One Ertz saw a team-high ten targets, catching six of them.
Honaorable mention: James Conner ($6,200 DraftKings/$6,400 FanDuel)
Jets @ Cowboys (-3.5) (U/O 45.5
The Jets are cursed, I’m convinced. Aaron Rodgers goes down for the season in only four plays, turning back the clock to 2022’s leather helmet run every down offense. Breece Hall was electrifying, but I couldn’t pull the trigger using him against the Cowboys D. The Jets’ defense ($2,700 DraftKings/$3,700 FanDuel) are no slouches either though, picking off Josh Allen three times, and adding a game-winning special teams touchdown. I have no faith in Dak Prescott this season, start up the gang-green D.
If Josh Allen struggled, what will Dak look like against the Jets waiting for him to hike the ball? I’m fading offensive pieces on the Cowboys too, but the Cowboys’ defense ($4,000 DraftKings/$4,500 FanDuel) facing Zach Wilson is an even juicier morsel. The boys lit up MetLife Stadium for 37 fantasy points against the Giants and could repeat that performance at home.
Commanders @ Broncos (-3.5) (U/O 39)
Finally, the Commanders go on the road to face the Broncos. The low total will keep the ownership away, mainly because it looks to be another defensive battle. Russell Wilson has made his mistakes, just as second-year quarterbacks like Sam Howell. With both teams loving to blitz and pressure the quarterbacks, it’s safe to say to roster the Commanders DST ($3,100 DraftKings/$3,900 FanDuel) and Broncos DST($3,900 DraftKings/$4,700 FanDuel)
The Broncos will be without tight end Greg Dulcich this weekend, leaving Sean Payton’s buddy from the Bayou Adam Trautman ($3,000 DraftKings/$4,600 FanDuel) to reap the receiving benefits.
Going back to last week’s Las Vegas Raiders wideout Jakobi Meyers’ 9REC/81YDS/2TDS explosion, the Commanders Johan Dotson ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) should see next to nothing of the Broncos’ Patrick Surtain coverage.
Cash Core
Allen/Chase/Kelce/Moss
GPP Core
Lawrence/Samuels/Jacobs /Trautman
Stacks
Herbert/Allen/Williams/
Burrow/Chase/Higgins
Allen/Diggs/Davis/Jacobs (run back)
Fields/Evans/Godwin (runback)
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 2. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an all-access premium pass for a 3-day, weekly, monthly, and annual membership here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
