Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Divisional Round
We’re down to eight teams left in the playoff field and hopefully, we get some better quality football this week. Last week was blowout central and the two competitive games were marred by referees who were….well, horrible. This weekend shapes up to be much better and we still have plenty to cover in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Divisional Round to find green screens!
Bengals at Titans, O/ of 48 (Titans -3.5)
Bengals
QB – Joe Burrow didn’t go for his nuclear-level explosion game last week but he still threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns. He didn’t turn the ball over and we all know what the upside is with this lethal receiving corps. Burrow finished first in the regular season in yards per attempt and Tennessee was 14th in DVOA against the pass but 17th in yards per attempt allowed. They also gave up the seventh-most passing yards on the season so the matchup is ripe for the Cincinnati passing game to have a big day. I’d love to get a quarterback from the Chiefs/Bills game, but if that path is too difficult, Burrow could be where I head under the $7,000 threshold.
RB – The results weren’t there for Joe Mixon last week but he had the exact style of workload that we assumed and we’d want again. Mixon had 21 touches, generated 76 scrimmage yards with no touchdowns, and let a large chunk of the field down. However, I’m not sure this is the perfect get-right spot. I’m not saying don’t play Mixon at all but there are other very strong options at the position at different salary levels (namely the player on the other side if he’s active). The Tennessee defense was stout against running backs as well, finishing in the top half ion the league in DVOA against the run. On top of that, they were one of five defenses to allow under four yards per rush attempt and just four yards behind the Buccaneers for the fewest amount of rushing yards to backs allowed. I will almost surely be getting my exposure to the Bengals in the passing game this week.
WR – I think we could be in line for a big bounce-back game from Tee Higgins this week. After a total flop against the Raiders, he’ll find himself lining up mostly against Janoris Jenkins. He’s off the injury report but he still allowed a 111.4 passer rating and 1.86 points per target and I highly doubt he only sees four targets again this week since his target share was 24.5% in the regular season. That’s not to say that Ja’Marr Chase isn’t a great option either and he was the focal point last week with 12 targets, over 33% of the attempts for Burrow. Chase will draw the top corner from the Titans (get used to that sentence for the next 10 years) in Kristian Fulton. While he had a strong overall season with 1.49 points per target and a passer rating allowed of 88.9, Fulton did allow 13.7 yards per reception. Chase thrives in the deep passing game as he sat in the top five in YPR, YPT, and yards per route this year. Tyler Boyd will man the slot as usual and faces Elijah Molden, who allowed a 66.7% catch rate. If the script you follow ism icon is not getting a lot done on the ground, all three receivers are in play.
TE – It figures that a tight end I wasn’t that interested in last week set his season-high in receptions at six, but C.J, Uzomah was fantastic against the Raiders. Tennessee didn’t face much in the way of tight ends this year and finished in the top six in yards and receptions with just three scores allowed. Before last week, Uzomah was 24th in target share among tight ends and didn’t finish in the top 15 in yards or receptions. Unless you believe he can replicate one of his best games of the season while Higgins flops worse than a fish on a dock, Uzomah will likely let you down this week.
D/ST – The Bengals are of interest to me because the two most sacked quarterbacks are both in this game. Tennessee allowed the second-most on their starting quarterback and Cincinnati is one of the five teams left that cleared 40 sacks on the season. They also generated a 24.5% pressure rate but did finish 16th in points per game and 20th in total DVOA. The price helps make peace with some of those warts and they are on the board as an option.
Targets – Burrow, Higgins, Chase, Mixon, Boyd, D/ST, Uzomah
Titans
QB – One direction I’m not likely to go is Ryan Tannehill. First, he only hit 20 DraftKings points or more four times all season and while he had his best game in Week 18, the Bengals are a mixed bag. They were 13th in DVOA against the pass but they also allowed the sixth-most passing yards and ranked 23rd in completion rate allowed. Trusting Tannehill is difficult as he finished just 16th in passing yards, 19th in yards per attempt, 15th in points per dropback, and 12th in attempts. Tannehill is sort of like Derek Carr was last week in that he could allow you a bevy of skill position players, but the upside is so questionable that it’s very risky. If he scores over 20 points you could be in business. I just don’t know if I can stomach him on a slate where the QB options are so strong, although he is the cheapest player I would use at the position.
RB – If we get the all-clear, Derrick Henry is about as close to a lock as a player can be for me on Tuesday night at 11:11 p.m. in part because he’s $7,500. The playoff pricing is a bit lower than the regular season because it’s way more difficult to find value, but the salary is egregious if Henry is ready. Keep in mind this man played only eight games this year, not even half of the season. He still finished ninth in rushing yards, 10th in carries, and eighth in touchdowns. Cincinnati was 13th in DVOA and 17th in yards per attempt allowed but also gave up 103 yards to the Raiders last week. King Henry with fresh legs is a terrifying proposition and it will be hard to not gravitate toward him as a 3.5 point home favorite.
WR – Never would I have thought Julio Jones would be $4,700 for a playoff game and I would be wildly uninterested. He’s barely been a factor this season due to injuries for a large part and I don’t even feel great about him making it through a game anymore. Even facing Eli Apple doesn’t give me much confidence with Julio at this juncture. A.J. Brown can be played with Henry this week and he’s the alpha in the passing game without discussion. Brown was ninth among receivers in target share this year at 27% and seventh in yards per route at 2.72. He should see a significant amount of Chidobe Awuzie and he surrendered a 54.8% catch rate and 11.4 YPR across 84 targets this season. While he had a strong season and ranked in the top 30 in points per target allowed as well, Brown can overcome that with the volume he has in the passing game. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine would be one of the few punt options for deep GPP but he’s not a target magnet and if Henry is back, there are only so many plays in a game.
TE – If you’re willing to get nuts and punt, the duo of Anthony Firkser and Geoff Swaim enter the discussion. Both players had a target share under 10% and Swaim did have a slight edge in red-zone targets at 8-6 and end zone targets at 5-2. The Bengals were the same matchup we attacked last week with Darren Waller, and the play-action game could be way more effective if Henry is back running the ball. Cincy was in the bottom five in receptions and yards allowed, but the floor is so low here that the risk is monumental.
D/ST – Likewise as the Bengals, Tennessee checks in as a possibility because Joe Burrow led the NFL in sacks at 51. The Titans racked up 43 sacks with a 24% pressure rate and ended at 12th n total DVOA and sixth in points per game allowed. The hesitation is they were weaker against the pass and that is the strength of the Cincy offense, but that also offers the opportunity for sacks and turnovers (the Titans forced 22 on the season). Seeing as how the defense is typically the last potion of my lineups, Tennessee is an option under $3,000 and you hope they record 3-5 sacks with a turnover to get you there.
Targets – Henry, Brown, D/ST, Tannehill, Firkser, Swim, Westbrook-Ikhine
49ers at Packers, O/U of 47 (Packers -5.5)
49ers
QB – My belief is this is the worst play on the slate at the position between the weather, being on the road, and the matchup. Jimmy Garoppolo said after the game last week that every throw he made was affected by his thumb injury, not exactly what you want to hear. Jimmy G did lead the league in yards per attempt but Green Bay was 15th in DVOA against the pass and looks like they’re getting two of their best defenders back in corner Jaire Alexander and linebacker Za’Darius Smith. Maybe they can’t play a ton of snaps since both have missed significant portions of the season but there’s no question the unit is better with them. They were in the top 10 in passing yards allowed even without them so I will not be that interested.
RB – If the 49ers can pull off this upset, they’ll need to lean into Eli Mitchell and have him help grind the clock and put points on the board. They jumped out early in Dallas and Mitchell carried the ball 27 times, excellent value for a player of this salary. Mitchel continues to bring almost nothing in the pass game so there is some level of risk in Lambeau. If the Packers get up fast, Mitchell could struggle to carve out a huge role but the spread is under a touchdown on Tuesday. He has proven to be the lead back in spades for the 49ers and the Packers were 28th in DVOA against the run and 31st in yards allowed per attempt. They only gave up the sixth-fewest rushing yards to backs but they faced the third-fewest carries. If San Francisco can flip that script a little bit, Mitchell should have a big day and the 49ers could pull the upset.
WR – Deebo Samuel continues to be one of the more confounding players for fantasy. He had another game with just three targets but yet found his way to 20 DraftKings points with a touchdown and 72 rush yards on 10 attempts. Given the salaries of the slate, I’m not likely to have a ton of him because, at some point, this lack of targets has to bite him with a very poor game. Since Week 9, Deebo has had one game of seven targets or more and just six targets can be tough to be consistent. Even last week, he had just three targets and the 10 rushing attempts are nice but the salary is questionable. I won’t take him off the table since he has an 11 target game and went for 31 DraftKings points. I just wish we had a more stable floor of targets as opposed to rushing attempts.
Brandon Aiyuk continued to have a big-play presence in the offense last week and his lone missed target was a poor throw from Garoppolo. He likely sees a lot of Eric Stokes, though the presence of Jaire Alexander does make this a bit more of a guessing game. Stokes excelled this season and even though 92 targets, he allowed 1.20 points per target and just a 75.5 passer rating along with 10.1 yards per reception. I think there are better options around him this week.
TE – Full transparency – I have no idea what to do with George Kittle. We’ve seen the best and the stone worst from him in the past seven weeks. He’s gone for 42 and 37 DraftKings points, but in the next five games, he combined for 32.7 points, 21 targets, 15 receptions, and under 30 yards in three of four games. Green Bay was average defending the position but he seems like a forgotten man in the offense right now and I’d hard to pinpoint exactly why. The metrics are awesome among tight ends with the second-highest target share and he was fourth in yards and sixth in receptions. Knowing the ceiling is there gives me some hesitation but I don’t think he’s going to be a primary option for me this week.
D/ST – It’s difficult to see where the upside is coming from if you play San Francisco’s defense. They did finish tied for fifth in the regular season in sacks with 48 and forced 21 turnovers but Green Bay wasn’t even in the top 20 in sacks allowed. The 49ers also finished seventh in total DVOA and eighth in points per game, but in Green Bay is too much of a test to get excited about.
Targets – Mitchell, Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk
Packers
QB – I may be going with the groupthink here, but if I’m spending at the higher end on quarterbacks, Aaron Rodgers may not be the path I take. Of course, nobody is saying that he’s not in play at all but does he have the same upside as Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes? He had better if you play him because they could both blow him out of the water, in theory. It sounds odd to say that Rodgers had a “down” year since he’s likely going to repeat as MVP (I’d say Tom Brady has a strong claim but I digress) but there were some inefficiencies in the metrics. He was only 16th in deep completion rate, 14th in red zone completion rate, and 10th in yards. What came to the rescue as far as fantasy goes is he had the third-most attempts in the red zone and threw the fourth-most touchdown passes, along with ranking fifth in points per dropback. San Francisco was ninth in yards per attempt allowed but was 16th in DVOA against the pass, so it’s not out of the realm for Rodgers to have a great game.
RB – This backfield is somewhat difficult to figure out. Aaron Jones injured his knee and missed Week 11 (and sat Week 18). From Week 12 through Week 17, A.J. Dillon had more carries at 65-48 while Jones led in targets at 18-12. That’s a much closer split to 50/50 in total touches with Dillon at the front of the timeshare at 76-63. Dillon also had a strong lead in red-zone attempts at 18-4 and carries inside the five at 6-1. On the surface, this wouldn’t be a question and Dillon would be the preferred target. However, the question becomes if the Packers were just going easy on Jones and will now unleash him in the playoffs or if they put one of the most efficient backs in the league on the wrong end of a timeshare for no real reason. The gap in salary is significant as well on DraftKings but the matchup on the ground isn’t great. San Francisco was second in DVOA and only allowed 77 total rushing yards last week. I think Jones is still the preferred target and they keep their best players on the field, but I am a little more nervous than I should be.
WR – It’s been a true coin flip all season long between Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp when they are on the same slate and that’s true again. Both players can score 30+ at any given moment and Adams destroyed the 49ers once already this year in Week 3 for 34.2 DraftKings points on 18 targets. With Adams in the slot only 22% of the time, he avoids K’Wuan Williams and even though Emmanuel Moseley only gave up 1.09 points per target (fifth among CB’s), I don’t ever care with Adams. This is their best chance to get to the Super Bowl and he’s going to be hyper-targeted. Only Kupp finished with more targets but Adams also played just 15 full games.
Allen Lazard comes into play here because Marquez Valdes-Scantling is doubtful and Randall Cobb is coming back from a core muscle injury. Cobb is active but hasn’t played since Week 12 so the bulk of the work falls to Lazard. What is important is Cobb has been the slot man 58.7% of his snaps, which would leave Lazard to the boundary on those snaps. He’s got to make it count because Josh Norman should be on the other side and he’s allowed a 122.8 passer rating and 14.7 yards per reception. MVS was the deep threat in the offense with a 17.9 aDOT so if Lazard gets deployed in a similar fashion against Norman, it could only take one play.
TE – I would rather take a shot with a Tennessee tight end ahead of Josiah Deguara as he sports the lowest target share on this sales at 6.1% and has just two scores on the year, one coming Week 18 on a 62-yard tight end screen. The 49ers tied for the second-fewest yards allowed and were in the top 10 in receptions allowed, so the matchup isn’t exploitable on paper. Much like the Titans players, there is a floor of zero so just be aware of what this play would entail, although it’s not for me.
D/ST – It’s hard to advocate for the most expensive defense this week, especially when their weakness is against the run and that’s what the 49ers do well. They do get some reinforcements back which will help them but they missed the 40 sack plateau and forced 26 turnovers. Total DVOA was just 23rd so they do have cracks to exploit which leaves them as a secondary option at the salary.
Targets – Adams, Jones, Rodgers, Lazard, Dillon, D/ST
Rams at Buccaneers, O/U of 48.5 (Buccaneers -3)
Rams
QB – Matthew Stafford may not have been needed for much last week with only 17 attempts but he played well in his limited work and put up 24.3 DraftKings points, including a rushing touchdown. This matchup could come down to how much Tampa blitzes Stafford and the Rams. It’s in the DNA of the Bucs to blitz as they had the highest blitz rate of any team in football but Stafford carved up the blitz and finished fourth in completion rate under pressure at 53.8%. He also finished third in yards per attempt and eighth in attempts, so if the run game isn’t doing near the damage it did last week and the game is competitive, Stafford could be a strong value. He handled this defense in the first matchup in Week 4 (fair to say it’s much healthier now) for 343 yards and four touchdowns. I would prefer to find the $400 to play him ahead of Tannehill.
RB – Normally, we wouldn’t be looking to play a running back against this Tampa front seven but Cam Akers could be the exception. He’s an extremely reasonable salary this week and touched the ball 18 times, generating 95 scrimmage yards. He also had multiple big runs called back on a penalty and looked excellent in his first serious action since his Achilles tear. Tampa did allow the second-most receptions to backs and Akers was used in that fashion, albeit not all that much. What’s interesting is even though the Bucs allowed the fewest rush yards to backs, they also faced the fewest attempts by 17. They were 12th in DVOA against the run so they weren’t quite as invincible as they have been in years past. Sony Michel was still a large part of the run game last week with 13 carries but it would be foolish to assume they run the ball 30 times again. The game script is very unlikely to be the same, so Akers would be the primary target here.
WR – As he did to most teams this season, Cooper Kupp abused the Bucs in Week 3 but it has to be said that they were dealing with a lot of injuries in the secondary. That has gotten better and Kupp has been “disappointing” relative to his standards this year coming down the stretch. It’s tough to criticize last week since the Rams flat didn’t throw the ball, but I do slightly prefer Adams this week. Sean Murphy-Bunting is questionable but would likely face Kupp most of the time in the slot and Murphy-Bunting only allowed a 58.3% catch rate in 48 targets and he was not active in Week 3.
Odell Beckham has looked everything but washed up in LA and he’s in play again at a great salary, especially if you go with Adams. He still gets exposure to this passing game if you want it and he’s up to six scores in just nine games with the Rams. Carlton Davis will be tasked with defending OBJ for some of this game and allowed a 56.5% catch rate but 14.2 yards per reception. I would prefer OBJ to Van Jefferson this week as Jamel Dean only allowed 9.3 yards per reception (sixth among CB’s) and Beckham nudged him in end zone, red-zone, and overall targets by the end of the season.
TE – Tyler Higbee could turn out to be a major weapon for the Rams in this contest. He’s never going to get the headlines with the crew working around him but he’s been a reliable target all year for Stafford and it is interesting to see his second-best fantasy game of the season came against Tampa. That may seem like game log watching but Tampa allowed the eighth-most receptions to the position this year and six touchdowns. The lack of scoring held Higbee back in the seasonal ranks but his red-zone work was elite with the second-most targets. Higbee is the middle ground if you don’t want to punt totally but the build takes you away from the more expensive options.
D/ST – They blew all other defenses out of the water last week and they could be an option this week, depending on the state of the Tampa offensive line. Going against Tom Brady in the playoffs doesn’t bear fruit very often but his offensive line could be missing multiple important starters. LA shared Arizona on Monday night and they never let up despite the fact they were short both starting safeties. I want to circle back o this one later in the week to see who they’re up against.
Targets – Kupp, Stafford, Akers, Beckham, Higbee, Jefferson, D/ST
Buccaneers
QB – Tom Brady fell into the Joe Burrow category last week as he was solid, but unspectacular for fantasy. He threw the ball 37 times and for just two touchdowns, so the upside wasn’t there even though the volume was. With Brady, we really have no fears but for one – the offensive line. Starters Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs both started off the week with not practicing and that would be a big issue in this matchup. Aaron Donald and others are waiting on the other side and if the center and a tackle can’t play, I won’t be that keen to play Brady. One aspect that Brady has struggled with his entire career is pressure right up the middle and forcing him off the spot. Every quarterback has that issue but Brady hasn’t gotten any faster at 44 years old. He lit up this defense in the first meeting for 432 yards on 55 attempts, but my interest hinges on the big uglies guarding him upfront.
RB – As of Wednesday, there’s still not much of a lean about how this backfield looks on Sunday. We know what happened last week when Leonard Fournette was still out and that was Gio Bernard and Ke’Shawn Vaughn splitting the work with Gio holding an edge in receiving work with five receptions. Both backs scored and had cracks at a second, so if Fournette doesn’t play I would much prefer Gio on DraftKings for just $300 more because he has a higher floor/ceiling combo than Vaughn does. If Fournette is active and 100% ready, he would still be a bargain. He was a top-three back in receptions even playing just 14 games and we saw that Vaughn and Gio shared nine targets last week. That’s just the way the Bucs offense is set up and I’m interested in a matchup where quick, short passing might be Tampa’s best attribute.
WR – The answer to “which secondary Tampa receiver should we look at” last week was nobody, as Mike Evans took the lion’s share and was targeted 10 times on his way to 29.7 DraftKings points. Brady and Tyler Johnson struggled with their chemistry and nobody else made an impression at all. The bad news for the Bucs is that should make it easier for Jalen Ramsey and the corners to focus on Evans and force someone else to beat them. I know that Ramsey doesn’t typically shadow, but if he’s not on Evans the majority of the time in a playoff game where Evans is the clear threat, I don’t want to hear another word about how good he is. For me, I’m not likely to go with Evans because of Ramsey and the other options on the slate as Ramsey allowed only 1.38 points per target and 10.8 yards per reception.
TE – It was sort of a disappointing week for Rob Gronkowski last game as I thought he would shred the Philly defense. Also, note to them for the offseason – you may want to cover one of the best tight ends ever at the goal line. Just a thought. For this matchup, the first game doesn’t shed much light as he was injured partway through that game and didn’t finish. Seasonally, they were in the bottom 12 in receptions allowed but only surrendered four touchdowns. What will be important here is the status of the Rams starting safeties. Last week, both were out of action and the Cardinals failed to take advantage. I’d have much more confidence with Brady and Gronk exploiting that weakness and Ramsey could be holding Evans to a quieter game. All that would lead Gronk to see a boatload of work and he should be the second-highest tight end on the slate.
D/ST – I’m a little wary since Stafford did so well against the blitz as Tampa was the only team to blitz over 40% of the time during the regular season. Now, the smart thing for coordinator Todd Bowles would be to dial back the blitzing in this matchup. If I can sit on my couch and know that Stafford has played very well against it, I’m sure he does as well. The problem is Tampa has done it so much that just not blitzing could be detrimental and the Bucs finished with 47 sacks and a 28.6% pressure rate, the second-highest in the league. The salary likely keeps me away from them and I’m not making a large effort to jam them in.
Targets – Gronk, TBD in the backfield, Evans, Brady
Bills at Chiefs, O/U of 53.5 (Chiefs -2)
Bills
QB – This game is the main event of the weekend with a total of almost a full touchdown higher than the other three. Both offenses can score 30 points or more on any given week and both quarterbacks went bonkers last week, totaling over 700 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. It’s safe to say that the Chiefs defense is not a matchup that should scare us for Josh Allen and one of these two is the goal this week. They are justifiably the highest on the slate and Allen eviscerated the New England defense last week in sub-zero temperatures. There’s not much left to say for Allen past the fact that he was top-five in near every metric we could ask for. He almost hit 40 DraftKings points in the first game but safety Daniel Sorenson was starting at that point. Allen tormented him that night and he’s since been demoted so that actually helps the Chiefs defense a good bit. It’s not a reason to worry about Allen, but worth pointing out when discussing the matchup.
RB – Devin Singletary is on some kind of heater right now and has scored seven touchdowns in the past five games. We know we want some heavy exposure to this game and Singletary makes sense, even understanding the waterfall of touchdowns has to stop at some point. What is more important is the volume and he’s had no fewer than 17 touches in the last five games and the Bills have scored at least 27 points in each game. It didn’t come back to bite them last week against the Steelers pop-gun offense but the Chiefs were 20th in DVOA against the run and ranked 30th in yards per attempt allowed. He’s well in play as is just about anyone from this game.
WR – I wasn’t terribly high on Stefon Diggs last week but it will be hard to ignore the environment and the salary at $6,500 (!!) on DK. He was the alpha in the passing game and was top 12 in receptions, yards, and targets on the season. The game script figures to be far different this week and Diggs could be facing Rashad Fenton if he’s active. If he’s not that is a big deal but even if he is, Fenton still allowed a 65.1% catch rate on 43 receptions. He’s one of the easiest ways to get access to this game at a very cheap salary.
The secondary players of the corps get much tougher. Gabriel Davis, Emmanuel Sanders, and Cole Beasley all seem like lottery tickets that can fly you to the top or ruin a really strong lineup with very little in-between. Charvarius Ward likely gets after Davis with his 45.2% catch rate and 85.2 passer rating while L’Jarius Sneed faces Beasley in the slot and only allowed 10.6 yards per reception. Overall on the season, Beasley was second in targets but Davis started to make his mark later in the year with injuries going around and I wonder if the Bills have realized he brings the highest ceiling among this trio. I’d lean towards playing him but will be monitoring anything leading into the weekend to see if we can get a lean of who’s second behind Diggs.
TE – It’s always hard to figure out Dawson Knox and he’s likely the most unstable option at the position. He could go for under three DraftKings points or he could go for 25+ and there’s not always a lot of rhyme or reason for which game you get. Even last week, the Buffalo offense was a buzzsaw but New England was the best team defending tight ends coming into last week. The Chiefs were much more average and the fears with Knox are the target share in the offense was so low at 13.2%. It’s hard to say no to any player in this game and I wouldn’t fight you over it, but we have more stable exposures in my eyes.
D/ST – Even though the game is suspected to be a wild shootout, that doesn’t mean defenses aren’t playable at all. Kansas City had turnover issues this year as they ranked in the top five and Buffalo forced 32 of them along with 45 sacks. No team had a higher pressure rate than the 30.8% that the Bills managed and even against a great offense, that could force some mistakes. Buffalo finished first in total DVOA and points allowed so the salary makes sense in this spot. If they get 3-4 sacks along with a turnover or two, they can afford to give up some points and still be worth playing.
Targets – Allen, Diggs, Davis, Singletary, Knox, Sanders, Beasley, D/ST
Chiefs
QB – It’s going to be interesting to see how the field views Allen and Patrick Mahomes, but I would expect the rostership to be close. Mahomes thew five touchdowns in what amounted to a blink of an eye last week and I had regrets. I even said it felt like the Chiefs were primed to explode but didn’t take my own advice and paid for it. This week they will be far more popular and the matchup is more difficult. Buffalo finished first in DVOA against the pass, first in yards per attempt allowed, and first in completion rate allowed. Mahomes finished fourth in yards, third in attempts, and 10th in points per dropback but if we’re breaking the tie, I prefer Allen since the Buffalo defense is far more talented than the Chiefs.
RB – It’s not very often the entire field gets a play wrong as we did with Darrell Williams last week. Seeing as how there were no real indications that his toe injury was very serious, he was rostered roughly 60% even in GPP and I scored more points than he did last week as he went negative. Jerick McKinnon was the back that went nuts with 18 touches, a score, and 142 scrimmage yards. The unknown factor is Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he practiced on Wednesday. It’s not an easy matchup against the Bills by the seasonal data but they did allow 89 rushing yards last week despite being ahead by three scores for a ton of that game. We’re going to need to see who’s going to be available before we make any decisions.
WR – It absolutely feels like the second I back Byron Pringle or Mecole Hardman, they’re going to flop and Tyreek Hill is going to go nuts. It’s also hard to not notice that Hill has been very muted since he battled Covid and injured his heel, having scored under 17 DraftKings points in the four games since he entered protocols for the league. He’s only been targeted 20 times in those four games and three of them were five or fewer. It’s odd for a receiver that was seventh in targets, sixth in yards, and third in receptions. He’s playing in the slot almost 38% of the time and Taron Johnson is one of the better slot corners in the league. Johnson only allowed a 48.3% catch rate but his 4.5 40-yard dash time does raise a strong red flag. I prefer Diggs at the salary and would rather play the next position. If you’re going with a receiver, Pringle is still an option because the alignments on the season would have him against Dane Jackson for the Bills. That’s the “weak link” of the cornerbacks with a 57.6% catch rate allowed across 33 targets and 14.6 yards per reception. Hardman faces Levi Wallace, not ideal at all.
TE – It’s a uniquely crappy feeling when you write that Travis Kelce has really not shown the upside we’re accustomed to for most of the season and he goes out and scores almost 29 DraftKings points, including a touchdown pass. I wouldn’t expect that again but Kelce is always someone that can go nuts and he’s more affordable than he typically would be. He took seven targets last week and turned it into 108 yards on five receptions and what’s interesting is the continued average play of Hill. That could only drive the ceiling for Kelce higher and even though Buffalo defended the position well, it’s not easy to match up against Kelce.
D/ST – Kansas City didn’t get home often at just 31 sacks and that is easily the fewest in the remaining field. That’s not a strong place to start when facing Allen and the Bills and I’m not sure there could be a bigger shift in matchup going from Pittsburgh to Buffalo. They had a spurt where they looked like an excellent defense but finished at 25th in total DVOA and 10th in points allowed. This could be the spot where Buffalo has the largest advantage because their defense was wildly more productive than the Chiefs unit. I would much rather play Tennessee or Cincinnati.
Targets – Mahomes, Kelce, Pringle, Hill, TBD on backs
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