Adam Strangis NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend
Typically Championship Weekend for NFL is one of the best weekends in football but I’m not sure how the four teams left standing can beat last week. Three underdogs won and all four games were won on the last play of the game, with the Chiefs capping it off with a game for the ages. Let’s talk about the two games we have at hand on Sunday to carve the path to green screens in the NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown Championship Weekend!
Bengals at Chiefs, O/U of 54.5 (Chiefs -7)
Bengals
QB – These games are going to be interesting because both are repeats of Week 17 and 18, with the Bengals and 49ers emerging with the win. Joe Burrow torched the Kansas City defense in that game with 446 yards and four touchdowns for a cool 37 DraftKings points. He’s played well in his first taste of the postseason and the only thing missing is touchdowns. He’s had a completion rate over 70% in both games, the 592 yards are strong, and he’s looked totally unfazed by anything happening around him. This game carries a total almost 10 points higher than the second game and that is notable. There is a clear tier of quarterbacks this week and Burrow is in the “second” tier in my eyes, simply because he doesn’t have the same rushing upside as Josh Allen did last week and nobody left in the field is in the tier of Mahomes. With the discount, Burrow is slightly easier to fit and he’s going to have all the chances in the world to throw for well over 300 yards and three touchdowns.
RB – The position as a whole this week is fairly gross and Joe Mixon pretty clearly leads the pack based on how the season has gone to this point. He was top five in carries and he has enough role in the passing game that he can be a weapon even if the Bengals wind up playing from behind (they are seven-point underdogs). He’s seen a total of 12 targets over the two playoff games so far and he’s touched the ball 41 times. Kansas City is weak against the run and has allowed over 80 yards per game so far. They were also 20th in DVOA against the run and allowed the fourth-most receptions to backs. It’s worth noting that when these teams played in Week 17, Mixon had seven receptions on eight targets and that was with the rest of the offense going nuts. I suspect some of the passing options from these games will be popular, leaving little room to pay for a back. That will be fascinating to watch unfold closer to lock.
WR – Ja’Marr Chase has yet to find the paint in the playoffs and still has scored at least 19.1 DraftKings points in each game, making him one of the best targets at the position this week. He nuked the Chiefs defense in Week 17 with over 56 DK points and even though we’re not going to get that again, he’s had 18 targets total and the salary has not been lower than it is this week. We need a lot of exposure to this game and the matchup with Charvarius Ward matters little with Chase. Ward did allow 1.43 points per target and only a 45.2 completion rate but also a 13.0 YPR, right in the wheelhouse for Chase and the downfield passing attack.
I’m very curious to see how the field reacts to the poor game from Stefon Diggs last week. If they transfer that outcome to Chase and make Tee Higgins more popular, I’ll love Chase even more although Higgins is a super strong play as well. Higgins was right with Chase as far as targets all season long and had nine again last week for 16.6 DK points. He also gets to see Rashad Fenton who allowed a 65.1% catch rate on the year, a big difference over Ward. If I’m plying Burrow this week, the odds are I will double stack him with both Chase and Higgins or possibly one of those two and the tight end, but we’ll get there. Tyler Boyd is the clear third wheel among receivers and he’s lagging behind the whole passing game, sitting fifth in targets through the playoffs. L’Jarius Sneed also played most of the slot snaps for KC and allowed 1.50 points per target so there’s room for Boyd to have a game if he actually was getting targeted.
TE – C.J. Uzomah is about as low as we can conceivably go for the position this week and I may well be doing just that. It’s not just the fact that he’s scored at least 14 DraftKings points in the past two games, he’s seen 14 total targets. He only averaged 3.9 targets per game in the regular season and there’s a possibility that KC will be missing Tyrann Mathieu in their defensive backfield on Sunday. Even if he plays, Uzomah has suddenly become a big part of the offense and Burrow has at least 34 attempts in each game, leaving room for him again. If I’m in love with everything else in the lineup, Uzomah isn’t the worst-case scenario.
D/ST – Cincinnati may have finished the year with 42 sacks on the regular season and tacked on another four in the playoffs with five turnovers but I can’t go against the Chiefs in Arrowhead with a defense. Ask Buffalo how that ended last week, and they were the number one defense in almost anything we could have asked for.
Targets – Burrow, Chase, Higgins, Uzomah, Mixon, Boyd
Chiefs
QB – Sometimes all you can do is shake your head and that’s about all we can say for Patrick Mahomes after last week. He threw for 378 yards, ran for 69, accounted for four total scores, and was just in total command of the offense. For a while this year, the Chiefs struggled a bit with two-deep shell defenses but Mahomes and company have grown more patient and let the talent take over. Seeing this Bengals defense within the past month isn’t going to end well in my eyes and the only reason you don’t play Mahomes is the salary involved. It’s nothing crazy but there’s not a ton of easy value plays this week.
RB – We saw Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire split time as expected but it wasn’t reported until Sunday that McKinnon was expected to be the lead. That’s exactly what happened as CEH touched the ball eight times to 15 for McKinnon although CEH did generate 69 scrimmage yards to 78 for McKinnon. The deciding factor is McKinnon is a touch cheaper and he was the clear receiving back, which matters a good deal in PPR settings. That was a major sore spot for the Bengals as well as they were fifth in receptions allowed to backs and if he’s going to get 8-12 carries as well, that’s going to make him a better play than CEH. I’m fully prepared to move this around if we get reports that CEH is going to lead this week, but McKinnon has made some explosive plays in both facets of the game even though he was shut down on the ground last week.
WR – Welcome back to the land of the fantasy living, Tyreek Hill. He went ballistic including a signature touchdown (should have been a flag but I digress) and we could well be in for a repeat this week. It’s basically the same thing as Mahomes that there is nothing wrong with playing Hill, but there are cheaper alternatives that have similar ceilings. What we really love for Hill is he plays close to 40% of his snaps from the slot and that leaves him on Mike Hilton for the Bengals. That is a significant mismatch (most corners are) in the favor of the Chiefs and Hilton allowed a 72.4% catch rate and ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash back in 2016 for the combine. Godspeed, Mike Hilton.
Byron Pringle continued his streak of being useful for fantasy with a touchdown and he does draw Eli Apple in coverage, which isn’t the worst-case scenario. Pringle also has at least seven targets in four of the past five games and that gets your attention at just $4,300. Apple has allowed 13.3 yards per reception this season and 1.60 fantasy points per target so he’s viable as a stacking component or if you decide to not play Hill. Mecole Hardman scored last week but had just one target and two rushing attempts so that’s not something I want to take a chance on. Pringle has been seeing much more reliable volume.
TE – Based on what we saw in the regular season, this could be much of a better spot for Travis Kelce. Cincinnati got gouged by tight ends all year, sitting bottom-five in both receptions and yards and Kelce has at least five receptions, 96 yards, and a touchdown in both playoff games so far this year. Realistically, there is no reason to shy away here as he has the highest upside left of anyone with how each team is playing. He was held in check the first game around but I expect the Chiefs to have solved that puzzle this time and Kelce seems like a sure bet to approach 20 DraftKings Points.
D/ST – The Chiefs aren’t an easy sell here either, as they got smashed last week for a -2 DK score. They only have 35 sacks through 19 games but they have generated 30 turnovers, which helps a bit. The Cincinnati offensive line has struggled through portions of the year, as they did last week with nine sacks allowed. I will say they weren’t all the fault of the offensive line but regardless, I’d much rather pay $200 more for the Rams unit later on in the slate.
Targets – Mahomes, Hill, Kelce, McKinnon, Pringle, CEH
Prop to Bet – Joe Burrow Over 286.5 Passing Yards
Game Pick – Chiefs, 38-31
49ers at Rams, O/U of 46 (Rams -3.5)
49ers
QB – I certainly get it, nobody wants to play Jimmy Garoppolo this week. He’s barely over 10 DraftKings points in both playoff games combined so that’s pretty far from ideal. Jimmy G is looking for his first touchdown pass in the postseason and despite averaging 8.6 yards per attempt during the season (second-highest), he’s yet to even pass for 175 yards in a game. It can be worth exploring your options on short slates like this but it’s impossible to say that Garoppolo offers the same upside as the other three options. He averaged six fewer fantasy points than everyone else and is dealing with an injury so, at the minimum, you almost have to find a way to the quarterback on the other side of this game.
RB – It was a slow week for Eli Mitchell last week against the Packers in the cold but I’m not letting that worry me this week. He’s getting a boatload of touches when he’s healthy and the last four weeks it’s been 23, 21, 28, and 20 touches. He is a little bit touchdown-dependent because only six of those touches have been receptions, so the floor is a little lower than we would typically chase. However, only three backfields are based around one back with the Chiefs being the exception and Mixon is pricey compared to the rest of the position. These two teams just played each other in Week 18 and Michell handled over 20 touches with 85 yards rushing, but he didn’t accrue another stat so the DraftKings score was just 8.5. If he finds the end-zone, he has a very strong chance of paying off this week.
WR – I can’t spend on Deebo Samuel this week when he’s more expensive than Hill and Chase but has had fewer than seven targets in every game since Week 9 except for one. It’s great that he’s getting rushing attempts (35 in the past five games) but I’ll take double-digit targets at cheaper prices. Jalen Ramsey has faced him for eight targets this season and Deebo has 3/88/1 total so it’s not that I’m terrified of Ramsey himself. It’s much more the utilization of Deebo compared to the other receivers in his salary tier and his upside doesn’t exactly match, even if it’s not terribly far behind.
Brandon Aiyuk came up with a zero last week on just one target but I’m willing to mostly throw that game out for the elements. If Deebo continues to not be a volume receiver, someone has to get targets in a game where the 49ers are underdogs. Aiyuk’s lone 100-yard game this season came against this secondary and if you want a mid-tier receiver, Aiyuk is high on my list. He was 18th in yards per reception this season and managed to get over 800 yards this year despite being in the doghouse for a long time in the early going.
TE – George Kittle continues to just not do a whole lot so far in the playoffs (or the weeks leading up to it) and it’s confusing when you see how few targets a guy like Deebo is getting. The biggest fear is Kittle has to stay in and help block against that stout defensive line of the Rams but he’s also the only player at the position that can rival the upside of Kelce and he won’t be as popular. In the two games they’ve played, Kittle has a combined 14 targets at has scored a touchdown. It could make for an interesting double tight end build with Kelce or a fade possibly overall, but the floor has been scary.
D/ST – There’s a world where the San Francisco defense can have a good showing fantasy-wise and the Rams offense still plays well, so they are on the board under $3,000. They’ve totaled 10 sacks through two games which is double any team that is left. Both teams have allowed under 300 yards per game to the opposition and the total of this game is way lower. I’d be targeting defenses from this side, even if I don’t expect them to score over 20 DK points again.
Targets – Mitchell, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo, D/ST
Rams
QB – Matthew Stafford might still be laughing at any idea of not being able to perform in a big game. The DVOA for San Francisco was 16th in the league during the year but they also were bottom 10 in completion rate allowed and Stafford has played extremely well in the past two games. The first matchup between these teams saw the 49ers house the Rams but the second game was more competitive and Stafford threw three scores and 238 yards. I’d rather get to Burrow for the game environment but if Stafford is sitting third in popularity, it’s hard not to want to take some shots.
RB – He may have fumbled twice last week but this is now the Cam Akers show and Sony Michel is an afterthought. Akers handled 27 touches last week and sure, the results weren’t great against Tampa. Most running backs don’t have strong games against the Bucs front seven and San Francisco is a tougher spot as well. They were second in DVOA against the run and called the seventh-fewest rushing yards but we simply can’t turn a blind eye to this level of volume at $5,000 flat on DraftKings. Akers is a strong value play and he’s been a little bit involved in the passing game as well with three receptions last week despite the offense crawling into a shell for too long in the second half.
WR – The decision here and one of the biggest decisions on the slate revolves around Cooper Kupp because his upside is incredible and his floor might be the safest of any skill position player. However, he’s at least $1,800 more expensive than Hill and Chase so not only do you need him to pay off the salary but you need him to be a LOT better than those two to make things worth it. My lean is to not go here because the salary is just too steep but of course, Kupp is always in play.
Just like Aiyuk, Odell Beckham makes more sense to me as far as salary involved and getting exposure to something in the offense and he’s coming off seeing eight targets last week. Beckham has scored six times already as a Ram and now we have Van Jefferson listed as questionable and has been limited in practice. That would only help Beckham but it does not seem like a huge worry. Beckham could see Emmanuel Moseley who was excellent this year with 1.09 points per target and a 53.2% each rate but Beckham looks rejuvenated in LA and the salary works to get other star players.
TE – The 49ers have not exactly figured out how to keep Tyler Higbee out of the end zone this year as he’s scored three total touchdowns in the two games. That’s not a great reason to chase Higbee but he is very cheap and he’s seen at least five targets in every game since Robert Woods was lost for the season. He was a red-zone monster the entire way (top-five RZ targets among tight ends) for the Rams even though he’s only scored five total times this season. Higbee could make a stack with Stafford more contrarian if you went Stafford/Kupp or Stafford/OBJ.
D/ST – If I can get there, the Rams are the best overall defense on the slate because they face the clear weakest quarterback. It’s also not going to help San Francisco that tackle Trent Williams is going to play but might be less than 100% even though he dodged a broken bone in his ankle. LA has five sacks through their two games and harassed Tom Brady relentlessly last week, so the only reason stopping playing them is the salary and they’re likely to be the highest-rostered unit on the slate.
Targets – Akers, Stafford, OBJ, Kupp, Higbee, D/ST
Prop To Bet – Brandon Aiyuk Over 47.5 Receiving Yards
Game Pick – Rams 28-17
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