NFL DFS Divisional Round – Stix Picks

Let’s get right into it for the Divisional Round NFL DFS slate. This week’s article will simply be a ranking at each position for the players in my DFS player pool. The Divisional Round is a bit better for cash games than last week was, but I will be limiting my exposure to strictly NFL DFS GPP tournaments.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

• Cincinnati @ Tennessee (-3.5) / TOTAL (47.5)
• San Francisco @ Green Bay (-5.5) / TOTAL (47)
• Los Angeles @ Tampa Bay (-3) / TOTAL (48)
• Buffalo @ Kansas City (-2) / TOTAL (54)

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

1. Josh Allen – He’s half man, half beast, half quarterback, and half running back. The AETY Model rates Josh Allen as the top quarterback on this slate projecting for over 280 passing yards, 50 rushing yards, 2.4 pass touchdowns, and 0.21 rushing touchdowns. Allen is matchup proof and playing like a MVP candidate of late as the rest of this Bills’ offense comes in absolutely rolling. This is going to be a great game with explosive offensive plays throughout… Enjoy it!
   
2. Joe Burrow – Joe Burrow is playing like a man possessed lately and I’ll go right back to the well against a pass funnel defense and a trash secondary for a 10% owned Joe Burrow.
   
3. Matthew Stafford – In terms of GPP lineups, Matthew Stafford is going to get the nod for me over the likes of Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers. Stafford is incredible against teams with a heavy blitz rate (Tampa blitzes the most out of anyone in the NFL) and will come into this matchup around 5% in ownership. There’s just too many weapons on this Rams’ offense in a game with the most expected pass attempts on the slate.
   
4. Patrick Mahomes – it’s Patrick Mahomes, at home, in a game with a 54-point total. He’s likely to lead this slate in ownership and the Bills aren’t the best of matchups. Having said that, it’s still Patrick Mahomes.
   
5. Aaron Rodgers – honestly, I’m not going to be playing any Aaron Rodgers this week due to the pace that the 49ers play at. If Shanahan has half a brain (sometimes I wonder, other times I marvel), he’ll take the air out of the ball as much as possible to protect his pass-funnel, underwhelming secondary, and most of all, to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field.
   
   Honorable Mention: Tom Brady

NFL DFS Running Backs

1. Elijah Mitchell – the only true weak spots in the Packers’ defense is their ability to stop the run and cover tight-ends. Elijah Mitchell, Devin Singletary, and Joe Mixon are the only “locks” at the running back position in terms of 15+ touches, so I’ll likely be rostering both of them in my main lineups. Again, my “story” for my lineups this weekend is Shanahan and the 49ers try to dictate this pace as much as possible and run the living hell out of the football.
   
2. Devin Singletary – 19+ touches in three straight games! On a slate with multiple “running back by committee” situations, I’m taking the route of playing the two who I know will see a ton of usage. Kansas City is the second worst run-defense on this slate (Packers) and rank 26th in pass DVOA against opposing running backs.
   
3. Joe Mixon – similar situation the both of the above, just with a tougher run defense in Tennessee and a higher price-tag in DFS. I do love the multiple touchdown upside and pass-catching ability Mixon brings to the table, but at 40% ownership, I’m having a hard time getting to him, although I want some Mixon. If I were to bet anyone to score two rushing TDs this weekend, it would be Mixon, as I project this game to go over the total and have plenty of red-zone opportunities for Mixon and the Bengals.
   
4. Aaron Jones – Jones is one of my favorite GPP targets this weekend mainly for what he can do in the passing game. As much as I respect the 49ers’ defense, I’m projecting a significant boost in the passing attack for Aaron Jones as the Packers will be without Marquez Valdes-Scantling. We know we will see a lot of A.J. Dillon as well, so temper your expectations a bit.
   
5. Giovani Bernard – Leonard Fournette is coming off of a significant hamstring injury and is ready to roll for this matchup against the Rams. My issue here is whether or not Bruce Arians was showing some gamesmanship in saying Leonard Fournette was not ready to return last week or the fact they simply did not need him to beat the Eagles.
   
   It’s a very difficult situation to get a read on, but I’m planting my flag on the side that Fournette was not 100% ready to return last week and will be on a bit of a pitch-count this weekend and leaving Gio Bernard on the field in most passing down situations. At the $5K price-tag on DraftKings, I’m confident Gio Bernard will get the job done as he racked up ten targets just a week ago and we know Tom Brady will check down often. For what it’s worth, the Rams grade 24th in pass DVOA against opposing running backs.
   
6. Clyde Edwards-Helaire – CEH is officially off the injury report and will suit up for Sunday Night’s game against the Bills. We’ll still see plenty of Jerick McKinnon and likely a splash of Derrick Gore, but the early-down and red-zone work should go back to CEH. In a game with a 54-point total, I want exposure to as many key players as I can.
   
   Honorable Mention: Cam Akers, Leonard Fournette, Derrick Henry, AJ Dillon

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

1. Cooper Kupp
   
2. Ja’Maar Chase – At this price, I’ll do anything I can to roster Ja’Maar Chase against his former high school and LSU teammate, Kristian Fulton. When Chase is away from Fulton, he’ll see a banged up Janoris Jenkins who straight-up cannot handle Ja’Maar Chase.
   
3. Davante Adams – I likely won’t prioritize Adams this weekend due to his price-tag and the expected pace of this game. Yes, that scares the hell out of me, but it’s the stance I’m taking to prioritize others in my lineups. If you can find a nice way to fit him in without sacrificing the rest of your lineup, do so with confidence. We know Shanahan will try to scheme out Davante Adams but that simply doesn’t work. I’m banking on a reasonable output for Adams and using others in my lineup to keep me close.
   
4. Stefon Diggs – Stefon Diggs against Charvarius Ward, Mike Hughes, and L’Jarius Sneed at 10-15% ownership? Where do I sign? Again, I want all of the exposure to this game that I can afford and at $6,500 on DraftKings, Stefon Diggs makes for an excellent NFL DFS GPP play.
   
5. Tyreek Hill – on the other side of Diggs, Tyreek Hill’s price-tag is borderline criminal against a sub-par Buffalo Bills secondary. If they use some single, press-coverage, Hill will have a field day. If not, I still have plenty of confidence in Tyreek Hill to get 18+ DraftKings points and provide my lineup a chance to succeed.
   
6. Deebo Samuel
   
7. AJ Brown – ridiculously cheap WR1 against Eli Apple in a game the AETY Model projects to shootout a bit more than the public does.
   
8. Mike Evans
   
9. Tyler Boyd – a great value going up against the Titans who grade as the #1 expected fantasy point provider to opposing slot receivers.
   
10. Randall Cobb – min-price, punt-play without Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
    
    Honorable Mention: Brandon Aiyuk, Odell Beckham, Allen Lazard, Tee Higgins, Mecole Hardman, Jauan Jennings, Tyler Johnson

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski – the WR2 of a Tom Brady pass-happy offense.
   
2. Travis Kelce
   
3. George Kittle
   
4. Tyler Higbee – simply way too cheap for the expected production against a Tampa Bay secondary that struggles against opposing tight-ends and will have their hands full with Cooper Kupp and Odell Beckham.
   
5. Dawson Knox
   
   Honorable Mention: Josiah Deguara, CJ Uzomah, OJ Howard, Cameron Brate

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams, but prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2. Green Bay Packers
3. Los Angeles Rams
4. Cincinnati Bengals
5. San Francisco 49ers
6. Tennessee Titans
7. Buffalo Bills
8. Kansas City Chiefs

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