NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown

Hopefully everyone enjoyed ANOTHER huge week of cashing in Week 2 NFL DFS Cash Games! It’s officially NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries. There are a ton of great value plays at WR/RB, but QB and TE are getting slim. There will not be a lot of different optimal builds this weekend.
• Miles Sanders chalk week – Play him in cash games!
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

1. Russell Wilson ($7,300 DK / $8,700 FD) – Another week of backing Russell Wilson. The dude is on another planet right now and the model loves him (as everyone’s does this week). Wilson has a whole boatload of weapons at his disposal and faces up against a bottom-half pass defense (in terms of DVOA) with Dallas. Not to mention, the total in this game is at 56, lol.
   AETY Projection: 24.74 points
   
2. Kyler Murray ($6,800 DK / $8,400 FD) – Not a whole lot to say about Kyler Murray besides “I told you so”. Every SiriusXM show we did this summer I mentioned this will be the first year I “reach” on a QB in the 5th or 6th round for Kyler Murray. He’s damn near a running back and goes up against the 24th ranked pass defense DVOA in Detroit. There aren’t many safer plays than Murray this week.
   AETY Projection: 25.35 points
   
3. Cam Newton ($6,700 DK / $7,700 FD) – The AETY Model LOVES Cam Newton this weekend against the Las Vegas Raiders who apparently the public thinks are a good team after beating New Orleans on Monday Night. Cam is going to have a field day with this defense. My only concerns are the ability of a banged-up Raiders offense being able to keep the pace moving and forcing Newton to continue moving the football.
   AETY Projections: 24.42 points
   
4. Mitch Trubisky ($5,700 DK / $7,500 FD) – We say it week in, week out… the Atlanta Falcons are the nuts matchup for opposing QBs coming in at 28th in pass defense DVOA. If you need salary relief, Trubisky is your guy this week despite how ugly the points may look.
   AETY Projections: 19.07
   
   Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz

Running Backs

1. Miles Sanders ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD) – It’s Sanders’ Week, plain and simple. He’s incredibly low priced for the floor/upside and likely to be rostered by over 60% of cash game players this week. Cincinnati’s run defense ranks 25th in DVOA and is going to have a hard time keeping up with a 3-down back like Sanders at home. Use him.
   AETY Projection: 20.42 DK / 18.92 FD
   
2. Dalvin Cook ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – With Barkley and McCaffrey out, this slate is missing its true #1 running back. The AETY Model really likes Dalvin Cook this week and for good reason: you can run all over the Titans who rank 22nd in run defense DVOA. Pair that with a Gary Kubiak outside-zone running scheme and you’re in for a big day.
   AETY Projection: 19.99 DK / 18.37 FD
   
3. Kenyan Drake ($6,000 DK / $6,500 FD) – He’s simply too cheap and also a guy that’s going to be over 40% in cash game ownership. We love picking on Detroit’s run defense (insert all of your screenshots of rostering Aaron Jones last weekend) and can certainly go back to the well in NFL DFS Cash Games this week. I hate using two players on the same team in cash (especially QB/RB), but this week, it’s OKAY if you do it with Kyler and Drake. I still don’t prefer it.
   AETY Projection: 18.56 DK / 16.64 FD
   
4. Ezekiel Elliott ($8,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – He’s probably too expensive for my builds this week and I’d truthfully rather roster a Dallas wide-receiver, but it’s hard to not love Elliott every week. Seattle’s run defense is not nearly as bad as the public thinks. I’m not going to play him in cash, but he’s always cash viable with that volume.
   AETY Projection: 22.01 DK / 20.32 FD
   
5. Jonathan Taylor ($7,000 DK / $6,700 FD) – Can’t believe DraftKings priced him up so high, but on FanDuel, you probably need to lock him in as an 11-point home-favorite against a minor-league Jets’ team.
   AETY Projection: 19.07 DK / 17.69 FD
   
6. The Value Backs…
   
   Mike Davis ($5,100 DK / $6,000 FD)
   Joshua Kelley ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)
   Jerick McKinnon ($4,900 DK / $5,700 FD)
   Devin Singletary ($4,900 / $5,900 FD) – UPDATE: I’m likely locking in Singletary on DraftKings cash games.
   Jeff Wilson Jr. ($4,000 DK / $5,200 FD)
   
   Honestly, just pick whichever one you prefer because you’re likely to need one for salary relief. If your build doesn’t require that, you’re in good shape.
   
   – Mike Davis – love the PPR floor here and not much competition behind him.
   – Joshua Kelley – more viable on FanDuel, but certainly a smash spot against Carolina’s poor excuse of a run defense (dead last in DVOA and bleeding touchdowns to opposing backs.
   – Jeff Wilson Jr. / Jerick McKinnon – I’m not buying into McKinnon getting a large workload. Wilson is going to be the lead runner here while McKinnon plays a stronger role in the passing game. If you think the Giants can push the pace, McKinnon is your guy. If you think the Giants lay an egg, go with Wilson.
   – Devin Singletary – Meh. There’s no one else there, I guess. Solid for PPR.
   
   Honorable Mention: James Conner, Austin Ekeler, David Montgomery

Wide Receivers

1. DeAndre Hopkins ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – The dude’s target share is through the roof and there’s no Christian Kirk this week. Detroit’s pass defense is very bad, but they are likely to bring some bracket coverage towards Hopkins. I don’t think it matters, he’s the WR1 on this slate.
   AETY Projection: 21.14 DK / 17.42 FD
   
2. Chris Godwin ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD) – For the same reason we loved JuJu Smith-Schuster against the rookie cornerback in Denver is why we love Godwin this week. Denver’s run defense is actually quite solid and Tampa Bay knows that. They’ll get their points through the air and a lot of that via Chris Godwin. He’s 100% healthy and ready to rock.
   AETY Projection: 15.26 DK / 12.21 FD
   
3. DK Metcalf ($6,500 DK & FD) / Tyler Lockett ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD) – They are both in absolute smash spots against this awful Dallas secondary in the highest game total on the slate. On FanDuel, I’ll roll with Metcalf. On DraftKings, I’ll roll with Lockett. You’re likely going to need one of these guys in your cash game lineup.
   Metcalf AETY Projection: 17.33 DK / 14.69 FD
   Lockett AETY Projection: 18.53 DK / 15.21 FD
   
4. Julian Edelman ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD) – Model loves Cam. Model loves Edelman. Coming off of the most receiving yards in a single game (for his career), I’m loving this matchup against inside cornerback, Lamarcus Joyner. If I can pick on Joyner, I’ll always do so. James White being out for this game gives Edelman even more of a slight bump than just a plus-matchup.
   AETY Projection: 17.94 DK / 14.49 FD
   
5. Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD) – Every week we lock in a receiver against Atlanta’s secondary. This week is no different, play Robinson.
   AETY Projection: 17.07 DK / 14.02 FD
   
6. Diontae Johnson ($5,400 DK / $6,300 FD) – When will they raise his price, lol? The dude is tied for third in the NFL in targets (granted, it’s only been two weeks), but this price is too low against a horrid Houston secondary. This game has sneaky shootout potential and Johnson should smash value.
   AETY Projection: 14.41 DK / 11.73 FD
   
7. CeeDee Lamb ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD) – Getting cheap exposure to the Seahawks/Cowboys game is a must for me. Lamb is getting a high target share and should have a strong outing in a shootout against Ugo Amadi (who actually looked decent against the Patriots) and the rest of this Seahawks’ secondary.
   AETY Projection: 11.73 DK / 9.68 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: N’Keal Harry, Calvin Ridley, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Odell Beckham Jr., Keenan Allen, Adam Humphries

Tight Ends

1. Jonnu Smith ($5,200 DK / $5,600 FD) – I hate rostering Smith in cash games, but it’s slim pickens at the tight-end position this week. Smith is by far their biggest threat in the red-zone with A.J. Brown out yet again.
   AETY Projection: 11.01 DK / 9.30 FD
   
2. Evan Engram ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD) – Not going to lie, the AETY Model loves Evan Engram this weekend against a 200% depleted San Francisco defense and no Sterling Shepard. Just use him in NFL DFS Cash Games.
   AETY Projection: 12.16 DK / 9.77 FD
   
3. Hunter Henry ($4,800 DK / $6,000 FD) – Herbert absolutely loved targeting Hunter Henry last weekend against Kansas City and I’ll be more than happy to invest in that chemistry again. I’m usually not a 100% believer in rookie QBs loving their tight-ends as a safety blanket, but Herbert refused to throw the the ball outside and that’s likely not going to change this weekend.
   
   You all know how much Mike Williams I had last weekend 🙁
   AETY Projection: 11.76 DK / 9.41 FD
   
4. The Punt Plays…
   
   Logan Thomas ($3,700 DK / $4,900 FD)
   Drew Sample ($3,500 DK / $4,800 FD)
   
   I rank Thomas much higher due to the proven target share, but if you choose to go dumpster diving at tight-end on Sunday, Sample is probably as low as I’ll go. Let’s try to just stick with Thomas if we go that low in NFL DFS Cash Games.
   
   Honorable Mention: Zach Ertz, Hayden Hurst, Jack Doyle

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Indianapolis Colts ($4,100 DK / $4,800 FD)
2. Cleveland Browns ($3,800 DK / $3,900 FD)
3. Los Angeles Chargers ($3,600 DK) *too expensive on FD
4. Los Angeles Rams ($3,000 DK / $4,100 FD)
5. Chicago Bears ($2,900 DK / $4,200 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup (DK)

QB: Cam Newton
RB: Miles Sanders
RB: Kenyan Drake
WR: Allen Robinson
WR: Tyler Lockett
WR: Chris Godwin
TE: Logan Thomas
FLEX: Josh Kelley
DST: Bears

Good luck to all!

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