Joe DiCarlo 
And then there were four. The Divisional Round played out beautifully, with no real upsets this weekend. As we enter the final multi-game slate this Sunday, let’s start preparing for the toughest weekend in DFS to get different from the field. There will be chalk galore up and down lineups, so give it all you got. Put your thinking caps on and get creative because the next time won’t be until September that we see more than one NFL contest.
Time to chop it up for this Championship Weekend. Two games, four elite teams. One total reaches the fifties, the other in the mid-forties. The field will flock to the Niners/Lions game, but as history has shown, the Ravens and Chiefs are no strangers to lighting up the scoreboards either.
Stay tuned to our Discord’s injury news, updates, and building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Now on to the Conference Championship Breakdown, the final multi-slate weekend of the 2023-24 season for NFL DFS!
Sunday Slate 1/28/24
Chiefs @ Ravens (-3.5) (U/O 44.5)
Pat Mahomes has been the Grim Reaper for his career during the playoffs for the Bills, sending them home early yet again, but will lightning strike twice? Only time will tell as the two-time Super Bowl Champ will face the number-one ranked defense on the road in Baltimore. The Chiefs’ defense will also have to contain Lamar Jackson on the other side of the ball, who may be named this year’s MVP any day now after his four total touchdown performance against Houston. But DC Steve Spagnolo and the Chiefs’ front seven are far superior to the Texans’ caliber of coverage, so don’t be surprised if they slow down Jackson and the Ravens offense.
As much as I anticipate a great game between these titans of the AFC, for DFS and Kansas City, we can’t put too many eggs in this basket. Travis Kelce is finally back and revived after his two-touchdown game against Buffalo, so he is a go after what I witnessed in the Divisional Round. Rashee Rice took a back seat last game, but he is still Pat Mahomes’ number-one option in my book, as he has averaged double-digit targets for the second half of the season. Finally, it’s been the Isaiah Pacheco show in KC’s backfield. Head Coach Andy Reid has finally found his three-down back in his tenure and will continue to ride the coattails of Pacheco, as he sees all the work on the goal line and touches the ball 20-plus times per game. It will be a tough matchup but still have faith in the defending champs.
There’s been some banter yet again about Mark Andrews making his return to the field for the AFC Championship for Baltimore and it’s been confirmed that he will play, but why the rush? Lamar Jackson and Isaiah Likely have been inseparable in the endzone together, hooking up on one this past weekend. But if the Ravens want to reach the big dance, they’ll need to be successful in the run game, as KC’s third-strongest secondary coverage has allowed less than 180 yards through the air on average. Jackson has carried the bulk of the rushing for Baltimore this season, but he’ll need some help from Gus Edwards and Justice Hill on Sunday. Both backs averaged about four yards per carry against Houston, but Hill’s work in the passing game (averaging four catches per game since Week 16) at his low salary is tempting for DFS managers.
Update: Mark Andrews has been activated off of IR and will play this Sunday. Lamar Jackson gets his favorite passing target back on the field since Week 11. Isaiah Likely will see a downgrade with Andrews back in action.
Top rookie prospect Zay Flowers quietly caught four passes for 41 yards in Baltimore’s playoff victory, but still is considered to be the Ravens’ WR1 going into Sunday. He’s way underpriced to $6K on DraftKings, making him a steal for a top target alongside an MVP quarterback. His matchup is terrifying going up against a defense that just suffocated Stefon Diggs, but the options at receiver are slim pickings this weekend.
Update: Isaiah Pacheco still questionable to play, CEH will be the free square if Pacheco is a no-go.
Historical Fact: Nelson Agholor has 22 receptions for 235 yards and a touchdown in seven total playoff games.
Honorable Mentions: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Nelson Agholor, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman
Lions @ Niners (-7.5) (U/O 51)
The second half of the doubleheader will be set in Santa Clara, California as the Lions will ride their momentum into the NFC Championship and attempt to make it to their first ever Super Bowl. However, the Forty Niners have been the beasts of the conference and will not be a walk in the park for Detroit as opponents, especially since Vegas has them as a touchdown favorite to come out victorious. With the highest total of the slate, expect the majority of the field to draft in this game for DFS.
The Lions have been the rags-to-riches story for the NFL over the past few seasons. From the laughing stock with a record of 3-13-1 in 2021 to being one win away from the big game has been a huge feather in Head Coach Dan Campbell’s hat. But it will be an uphill road for Detroit to make it out to Vegas, as the Niners will be one of their toughest opponents since Kansas City in Week One.
Jared Goff will be outdoors on the road in this matchup, so I’m iffy using him for DFS. His supporting cast however is all systems go. Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta will command most of the passing targets, with Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams to pick up the scraps. Whichever route you choose for Daily Fantasy is up to you, there are no wrong decisions this late in the season. Now as far as the Lions’ backs, it’s been the Jahmyr Gibbs show. Even though David Montgomery still sees his usual 10-12 carries per game, it’s Gibbs who has had more pep in his step, especially in the passing game catching all eight of his targets this postseason.
In other Lions news this week, veteran tight end Zach Ertz was signed off the street. He’ll be a popular dark horse on the slate this weekend because of his minimum-priced salary. He’s a 50/50 shot of giving you an ROI, which would be about three catches for thirty yards. Also, check out Detroit as a defense this weekend. They are the least expensive, mainly because of the points they allow per game but are fully capable of racking up a few sacks with pressure by tackles such as Aidan Hutchinson.
As for the home team, Frisco is still up in the air with the status of Deebo Samuel, who injured his shoulder against Green Bay last week. His being unable to suit up would be a crucial blow to the Niners’ offense, which was unstable in the win. San Fransisco is 7-10 in a total of 17 games without Deebo in his career, so for their sake, he hopefully can give it a go.
Brock Purdy, fortunately, has the best matchup of the weekend with the Deebo news, as the Lions are 30th in DVOA to opposing quarterbacks and receivers. Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will both see an uptick in targets, as well as running back Christian McCaffrey. If Deebo does sit out, Jauan Jennings could see a heavier snap share, along with other bench players Chris Conley and Ray-Ray McCloud.
Update: Deebo Samuel is back at practice, and has a good chance to suit up this Sunday. Great matchup to line up across Detroit’s Kindle Vildor.
Lastly, we all want the best of the best in our lineups with McCaffrey. He’ll be up against the number-one-ranked run defense, but with his volume and skill set, we have to put those stats in the rearview mirror in a game with this amount of magnitude. He’s the most expensive, so to cash we’ll need pieces like a Jauan Jennings or a Josh Reynolds. Fading McCaffrey is also an option, and using the extra salary on an Aiyuk/Amon-Ra combo, but I’d be hedging with CMC in other builds in case he does blow the doors off the slate.
Thanks for reading my 2024 Conference Championship Weekend Breakdown. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Sign up for an all-access premium pass here at WinDailySports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!
