Dave Gloeckner 
The NFL season wraps up today in Week 18. And luckily for us football fans, there are many important games on the slate for us to watch and bet on. This has been a fantastic season for the NFL as the parody they aim for has been reached. While Baltimore and San Francisco are locked into the number one seeds in their conference, both are vulnerable and the postseason tournament will be wide open.
We had a great week last weekend by posting a 4-1 record. We’ll look to extend that momentum into Week 18 with the below picks.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 44-29 (last week 4-1)
NFL BETS WEEK 18
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3 vs ATLANTA FALCONS
The Saints have been one of the most underwhelming teams in the NFL this season. But they played their most complete game last week in Tampa to give them a shot at the NFC South Division title. They’ll need to win today, and hope for a Carolina upset of the Buccaneers to get in the dance. Stranger things have occurred!
But this pick isn’t about the Saints as much as it is about their opponent, the Atlanta Falcons. Head Coach Arthur Smith is definitely on the hot seat. From his constant swapping of starting QB’s, to his complete mismanagement of his start players, he’s completed a mess in Atlanta. And the unfortunate part is they should have won this division with the talent they have. They come into this game with losses in 3 of their last 4 games. Including two embarrassing ones; a 20 point loss to Chicago and 2 point loss to Carolina.
I don’t see how the Falcons can stay motivated today. And while this will be a heavy public bet, I’m good riding that side as long as it stays at 3 or less.
ARIZONA CARDINALS +3 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Cardinals pulled off the upset of the season last week when they beat the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 35-31. Head Coach Jonathan Gannon has the Cardinals playing hard to end the season which is a key factor in this bet. They also play better at home, despite their two big road upsets, as they are 4-3 ATS and 2-5 SU in the desert. As for their opponent, the Seahawks, they come in losers in 5 of their last 7. And their two wins are last minute miracles against the Eagles and Titans. Surprisingly, the wheels have fallen off the wagon as they are struggling on both sides of the ball.
The betting market is even on this game so the line isn’t anticipated to move much between now and kickoff. I’ll trust Kyler Murray to have his team hang tough and maybe pull off the outright upset.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS -3 vs DENVER BRONCOS
The Raiders have played extremely hard under HC Antonio Pierce. Their play on the field fully represents the tough attitude that Pierce displayed when he played. They’ve also won seven straight games against the Broncos including their opening week victory in Denver.
As for Denver, the recent change in QB has left a cloud of doubt over the team. Yes, they were victorious last week against the Chargers. But they struggled to pull away against an Easton Stick led attack from LA. Where on the other hand, the Raiders crushed the same Chargers by a score of 63-21 just 3 weeks ago.
I’ll take the team that has some fight left in them versus a team that is in full transition mode under HC Sean Payton.
GREEN BAY PACKERS -2.5 vs CHICAGO BEARS
I was on the Bears earlier this week. I love how HC Matt Eberflus has this team playing to close out the season. It’s what Chicago fans envisioned when 2023 started. But instead it took half the season to get things straightened out and now it’s too little and too late in the Windy City. However, the best news for Chicago is that they’ll have the number one pick in next years draft due to the ineptitude of the Panthers. So this season is still a success and the future is bright.
But I’ve flipped my lean of Chicago to Green Bay for a few reasons. First, Green Bay has shown resilience on multiple occasions this year. Most importantly, they’ve shown it when playing their Division rivals. They are 3-2 in NFC North games, but impressively are 2-0 in rematches. They dismantled both the Lions and Vikings in their second games. And now they try to match that success playing the Bears for a second time.
The other reason I now like Green Bay is because of some motivational words that Justin Fields gave them. While it may not be much, he took a shot at the small town Packers. Their fans are sure to be dialed into that and ready to bring the heat today. I’ll take a fired up Packer fan base to bring the heat and make a difference in the game today.
BONUS BET: Buffalo Bills -2.5
Dolphins can’t win against good teams. Ride the Bills especially now they have some freedom knowing they’re in the dance.
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