Dave Gloeckner 
I hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving and was able to spend time with family and friends. We at Win Daily are thankful for this whole community and look forward to celebrating future big wins together.
From a betting perspective, I went 2-1 on Thursday bringing my season record to 28-19. With four games already played, the betting pool is much narrower today. But there are still several games I like and see an advantage on. So let’s keep this momentum rolling right into Week 12 Sunday action.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 28-19 (last week 4-0)
NFL BETS WEEK 12
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +2 at HOUSTON TEXANS
Houston has been one of the best stories of this NFL season. They finished last year with the worst record in football (tied with Chicago) and are hosting a game in Week 12 that with a win would put them in first place in the AFC South. It’s quite a transformation for a team with a rookie Head Coach and rookie QB. But it’s getting tougher each week now that they’ve put themselves on the NFL map. Ever since beating Pittsburgh 30-6 on October 1st, the Texans have played in 6 straight one score games. And while they’ve fared well, going 4-2 in those contests, none were against teams that currently have a winning record.
Today they welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars who surely circled this game after getting beat 37-17 by the Texans in Week 2. The Jags haven’t played their best football game yet this season as they are 2-3 against teams with a winning record. But all those losses came at home as they are 4-0 overall on the road and 4-0 ATS. They also turned it on in the second half of last season when they went 7-1 down the stretch to win the AFC South. That’s a staple of Doug Pederson teams that often find their identity later and build towards a playoff run. With that, I’ll back the hungry Jaguars who know with a win today they will be in complete control of the AFC South.
DENVER BRONCOS -1.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS
I’m back at it again with betting a Browns game. Will the undefeated streak continue? What’s for certain is that we’re not running away from perfection but instead chasing it. While I sided with the Browns and DTR last week against their rivals in Pittsburgh, I’m fading them today in their game at Denver.
First, the Denver D has vastly improved over the past 5 weeks. In those games, they’ve allowed a maximum of 22 points and averaged just 17.2/game. And that has been against high powered offenses in KC (twice), Buffalo and Minnesota. The key to this streak has been turnovers as they’ve created 14 in that span. Now they face a rookie QB with just 2 career starts in the mile high altitude. Yes, give me the Broncos today as I side with the reinvigorated defense in a hostile environment versus a very green QB in DTR.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS
I swore I’d stay away from Patriots games after Mac Jones threw away their last game in London against the Colts. But after the Giants upset of Washington last week, we’re getting a good number here and one I can’t pass up. The Giants had looked like the worst team in football leading up to their game against the Commanders. The GMen had been outscored by the Cowboys and Raiders to a tune of 79-23. But somehow, they found something last week and pulled off a big upset by upending Washington 31-19.
The Giants improved to 2-0 against Washington but are now 1-8 against the rest of the league (their only other win a comeback victory in Week 2 against Arizona). The matter of fact is the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league. Tommy Devito is bad. And the Giants D is ranked 27th overall in DVOA. While we still don’t know who the Patriots are starting at QB, it will be better than Devito. And factor in Bill Belichick’s propensity to have success against rookie QB’s is the reason I’m (tepidly) backing New England today.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1.5 at ATLANTA FALCONS
The NFC South is once again leading the pack for the worst division in football. Last year’s South winner finished under 0.500 and it looks like we’re headed that way again. And today’s matchup between the Falcons and Saints may very well determine the winner of the South this year.
I’m backing the Saints today as they have the better defense and offense when compared to Atlanta. The Falcons have lost three straight and have decided to go back to Desmond Ridder at QB. Ridder has been sacked 25 times in his 8+ games and has just 6 TD passes thrown. The Saints D will be able to hold down the Falcons O long enough for their offense to put away this game.
SURVIVOR PICK KANSAS CITY CHEIFS
The Chiefs are steaming after another poor offensive performance. I expect that energy to show out on the field today in Las Vegas and the Chiefs to put together a complete game and show the NFL world they are still a team to be reckoned with.
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