Dave Gloeckner 
We hit another trio of winners last week, posting a 3-1 record ATS for the second consecutive weekend. And we hit our outright winner in Survivor/Eliminator to keep moving forward. I don’t know about you, but my pools have already seen ~50% of entries eliminated. Though just two weeks, getting this far has been good navigating for us.
As a quick recap for Week 2, we continued to see dogs cover spreads as the favorites went just 7-9 ATS and are now 13-19 on the season. More importantly, the public went 9-7; however Vegas hit on their most important sides, getting covers in Arizona and the LA Rams. In case you missed it, the books are big fans of Rams HC Sean McVay.
Things have shifted slightly this week as we have only four home underdogs, where we had fourteen over the first two weeks. And home dogs are 7-7 ATS in those matchups to date.
So, let’s get moving and find some winners.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 3-1 (last week 3-1)
NFL BETS WEEK 3
CAROLINA PANTHERS +5.5 at SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Many bettors will run to the window on Sunday to place action on Seattle. The Seahawks went into Detroit in Week 2 and won a game in OT to improve to 1-1. The public betting loved seeing that happen as they scored 37 points in that game. Their opponent, the Carolina Panthers were on MNF and looked utterly flat in their loss to New Orleans. So it’s a case of recency bias that will indeed have the books flooded with seabird bets.
However, QB Bryce Young has been ruled out for this contest, and in comes Andy Dalton. That should play in the favor of the Panthers, as their biggest issue so far has been the QB play. The Panthers rank dead last in passing yards with just 299 over the first two games. And they are 28th in completion percentage at 59.2%. Dalton played well last season, having a 92.5 QBR with a 2-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio.
The Seahawks have a solid passing attack, but that plays into a Panthers team with the 5th best-passing defense, according to DVOA. On the other side of the ball, the Panthers, with their new QB, should be able to move the ball against Seattle as they own the 22nd-ranked defense, according to DVOA. A weak defense, combined with Carolina’s ability to play solid pass D, should allow the Panthers to hang close enough to cover this number, and even pull out a win.
CLEVELAND BROWNS -3.5 vs TENNESSEE TITANS
The Browns have found a place in this article for the 3rd consecutive week. And that could be good or bad news, depending on what team you cheer for. To date, I’m 2-0 in Browns games, and feel like there’s an edge in this week’s contest too. The Browns saw DeShaun Watson fumble away the game last Monday Night in Pittsburgh. But the public also saw Nick Chubb go down to a scary injury, and now they have completely turned their backs on the city by the lake.
However, this wasn’t going to be a Nick Chubb game anyway. The Titans are the #2 ranked rushing defense, according to DVOA. And they led the league in rushing defense last year. This was always going to be about DeShaun Watson and the Browns WRs. And with Watson struggling on MNF in Week 2, he will have added motivation to show he is worth the money that Cleveland invested in him.
Additionally, Cleveland has the #2 ranked defense, according to DVOA. The Titans have significant issues on the offensive line, as PFF ranks that unit as 28th in the league heading into Week 3. While only having four sacks this season, the Browns have the 3rd ranked pass-rushing unit as rated by PFF. The advantage in the trenches and the passing game is significant. The Titans, while 2-0 ATS, could easily be 0-2. Another Chargers late-game collapse masked their struggles, and they will be unable to hide this week against Myles Garrett and company.
DENVER BRONCOS +6.5 vs MIAMI DOLPHINS
I’m definitely on an island here, and I’m OK with it. The Broncos are 0-2 and 0-2 ATS, while the Dolphins are the exact reverse. To add to the opposite effects of these two teams, Denver has played two home games, and Miami has played two road games. It’s an exciting matchup seeing two teams with opposite results and paths taking the field today in Miami.
But here’s the thing: the public is hammering the Dolphins and it is for good reason. Miami passes the eye test, and casual bettors love good offenses. So far, we’ve seen almost 80% of bets and 75% of the money pouring in on Miami. And yet, the oddsmakers haven’t pushed this to the key number of 7. Something seems very odd about this one, and when it smells, trust Vegas.
As for the game, the offense in Denver hasn’t been the issue like in 2022. But now the defense can’t stop anyone. They made a splash in FA with DE Frank Clark and DL Zach Allen. But the Broncos have just four sacks this season, which ties them for 23rd in the NFL. This week, that will have to change if they want to get in the win column.
On offense, Denver has an advantage against the Dolphins D as their pass and run block rates are in the league’s top half. In the end, Denver is desperate and will play inspired football. They will play their best game of the season this week in Florida. Also, Miami was 1-2 ATS in 2022 at home following a road trip of 2+ games or more. And in two of those game, they lost outright (Minnesota and Green Bay).
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -4 at TAMPA BAY BUCS (MNF)
The Eagles have been on National TV in the first two weeks of the season. And public bettors do not believe what they see despite their 2-0 and 1-0-1 record ATS, which is precisely where the Eagles want to be. They have yet to play a complete game and have 10 days of rest to figure it out.
As for the Bucs, they are one of the more surprising teams in the NFL to date. They’ve won a challenging game in Minnesota, then took care of the hapless Bears at home. Both defenses rank in the bottom 1/3rd of the league. But this week, they take a step up in competition and face an Eagles team that led the league in sacks last season with 70. And while Tampa has allowed just one sack this season, they’ve faced two teams that don’t have the defensive line strength like the Eagles possess.
There are mismatches at both lines of scrimmage, and the Eagles have the better-skilled position players. They’re comfortable in the spotlight and have the added rest days, all hidden advantages that will factor into this game.
SURVIVOR PICK
DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys look like the best team in the NFL after the first two weeks of the season. And their reward in Week 3 is to play the worst team in the NFL, the Arizona Cardinals. There’s only a little to assess here as Dallas should keep it rolling this week in the desert. What I saw from Arizona last week was a team that is content to play tight but even more happy to lose and stay in the lead for the Caleb Williams sweepstakes. Dallas will help them keep that lead this week.
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