Dave Gloeckner 
We are entering the final 1/3rd of the season and while there are still big DFS pots to take down, we’re also racing to finish the season in the plus as it pertains to our single game bets. We picked up two more wins last weekend now pushing our season total to 30 wins and +7.9 units.
Week 12 brought us a few crazy numbers to digest. First, the public went 10-5-1 on the week. And when the public wins we know the favorites are the primary source. And that was the case as favorites went 11-4-1 ATS. This throws up several red lights this week when assessing the card. As we all know, Vegas doesn’t like to lose (they’ve already started the week 1-0 with Seattle’s cover on TNF).
2023 SEASON RECORD: 30-21 (last week 2-2)
NFL BETS WEEK 13
NEW YORK JETS +2 vs ATLANTA FALCONS
The first question I’m going to get is “How do you back Tim Boyle”? And it’s a helluva question as I can’t answer that without some sort of smile. But this isn’t about backing Tim Boyle. If you were a Florida State bettor last night, did you back Brock Glenn (who threw for 55 yards in the game) or the FSU team and opponent? That’s really where this game lies with me. The Jets have one final at-bat this season and it’s today. Listen, 4-7 is likely out of it anyway but in the locker room they can talk themselves into still having a chance. And as long as they have that, the defense will be motivated enough to win this game by themselves.
The Falcons are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road this season. They’ve lost to two last place teams in the Titans and Cardinals. So why not make it three? In all seriousness, this is a good spot for the Jets as the Falcons are 22nd in scoring in the league. The Jets cannot keep any pace with a good offensive team but can hang tight with lower scoring opponents (lost one score games to NYG, LV, NE). I’ll rally behind the J-E-T-S and back the team with the better D today in NY.
HOUSTON TEXANS -3 vs DENVER BRONCOS
We faded the Texans last week in a game against Jacksonville and were able to come away with a W because of a fortunate bounce off the FG post. Speaking of fortunate, that’s exactly what Denver has been of late. They are currently riding a 5-game winning streak which is the longest in the NFL. In that stretch, they’ve forced 16 turnovers and are a +13 in TO differential. That’s staggering and not sustainable. Today they face Houston who has the 3rd lowest turnovers in the league with just 11. CJ Stroud is playing at an MVP level and has several weapons at his disposal to help attack a Denver D that is ranked 32nd in Defensive DVOA.
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCS
The Panthers finally pulled the plug on the Frank Reich era in Carolina. After a long eleven games, owner David Tepper made yet another coaching change. But in all seriousness, this is a move that had to happen. There was enough locker room division that the team had stopped hearing the message from their HC. And when that happens, to quote the famous Sam Cooke, a change is gonna come.
And that’s one of the primary reasons I’m backing the Panthers this week. They still have plenty to play for as they do not want to be the worst team in the league since they don’t own their 1st round pick. The Panthers also want to see development in Bryce Young which is a reason they didn’t anoint OC Thomas Brown to HC.
Then there’s the Bucs who are just out there doing mediocre things. After starting 3-1 they have now lost 6 of their last 7 games. They are ranked 16th on defense and 22nd on offense. They don’t do anything particularly well. So I’ll take a team that was looking for change, and can be freed up (similar to the Raiders after Josh McDaniels firing).
CLEVELAND BROWNS +4 at LOS ANGELES RAMS
It’s the eye test. And last week everyone witnessed a Browns team get beat by 17 in Denver and a Rams team beat the Cardinals by 23 in the desert. Add to that the Browns are forced into starting 38 year old Joe Flacco and the bettors are running to the windows to bet against Cleveland.
But I’ll say not so fast my friend. The Rams have the 8th worst pass blocking rate in the NFL according to PFF. And that’s bad news as the Browns own the 3rd best pass rushing win rate in the league. I think this is a Myles Garrett type of day and Cleveland will create havoc on the Rams O Line. Flacco should be able to just enough to get the ball to his talented WR’s and keep this game within striking distance. The matchup with the lines is what I’m focused on here and think four points is too much.
SURVIVOR PICK PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers are not worthy of their record. But that doesn’t matter to me when we’re focused on straight up wins. Coach Mike Tomlin just finds ways to win games. And the coach on the other sideline, finds ways to lose them. So that’s the analysis, Mike Tomlin vs Jonathan Gannon. Steelers win and keep us moving forward.
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