Dave Gloeckner 
We had our second losing week of the year as Houston failed to cover by 0.5 points because their kicker got hurt. Those are the breaks and staying consistent with our methods is the key. We’re due for a lucky break and a big week. Which is exactly what we’re chasing for in Week 10 of the 2023 NFL Season. The good news is that we didn’t sweat our Survivor pick as Cleveland pulled away early against the Cardinals and won in blowout fashion.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 21-15 (last week 2-2)
NFL BETS WEEK 10
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -2.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Vikings added another miracle to their resume last week as QB Josh Dobbs came in the second quarter to captain Minnesota to an improbable comeback win in Atlanta. This was so improbable based on the fact that he joined the team just a few days prior to the game and didn’t know most people’s names or the plays. But that was also against a defense that was 25th in DVOA. The story is much different this week with the Saints as they rank 9th overall in defensive DVOA.
Additionally, the Vikings have covered in four straight and are 5-3-1 ATS. However, they are just 1-3 SU and ATS at home. The public is backing the Vikings in both the money and number of bets (66%). This is a clear reflection of their recent play and the fact that NO has been bad to bettors this year (2-6-1 ATS). That changes today and the Saints will make sure the Dobbs magic was for just one week.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +2 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
With talk of Bill Belichick’s job being on the line, I expect the Patriots to play inspired football today. Going into last season, Belichick was 25-4 SU against rookie head coaches. And that’s what he faces today with Shane Steichen taking over the Colts this season.
Looking deeper at the Colts, the issue is on defense where they allowed 37 points in three straight games before last week’s contest where they allowed just 13 to the Carolina Panthers. But the Panthers outgained the Colts and the victory came because of two defensive scores.
While New England’s offense isn’t much better than Carolina, I do believe they’ll be able to attack the Colts much better than the Panthers did. A back against the wall Belichick versus a rookie HC who has a porous defense. That’s enough ingredients for me to back the Pats today.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -3 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
The 49ers bye week came at a perfect time as they have been spiraling downwards in losing three straight games. A week away can only help them get rid of the bad vibes and refocus their energy on how dominant they were to start the season. On the other hand, the Jags also had a bye week but went into that in an opposite direction than San Fran as Jacksonville has won five straight.
Besides the difference in momentum, the teams are also flipping spots in how they perform. The Jags rank 3rd in defensive DVOA while the 49ers rank 15th. And offensively, the 49ers rank 1st in DVOA while the Jags are 14th. The strengths and weaknesses of these teams are flipped from what they are perceived to be. And with that, the 49ers will be motivated to get back to their winning ways and do it defensively. They will be able to create pressure and get after Trevor Lawrence.
This line is definitely tilted to SF as the books as look at the 49ers being almost one TD better than Jax on a neutral field. Give me the team that needs the win more today, and one that will be fired up coming out of their bye.
NY JETS -1 at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
The Jets are atrocious on offense. And yet here they are at 4-4 and still competing for a playoff spot. And the reason this line is where it’s at is mainly because of optics. The Jets scored just six points last week in prime time while the Raiders, who looked awful the week before on MNF, crushed the Giants. But if you look deeper at the numbers, the Jets held the Chargers to just 191 total yards last week. And that’s against a quality QB. Imagine what they can do versus a rookie starting only his second NFL game? The NFL is cyclical, and I believe an embarrassing loss like last week gives us an edge today. I’ll back the Jets as fade the public here as defense will rue the day.
SURVIVOR PICK DALLAS COWBOYS
Two Words: Tommy DeVito
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