Dave Gloeckner 
Happy Holidays to the WinDaily family. No matter what you celebrate, we all are here for a common goal and that’s to win some extra spending cash. And we did that last week with a 4-1 record pushing us to +10.8 units on the season. And if you’ve been in Discord of late, I’m also 4-0 in College Bowl Games. So let’s see if we can build that stack even a little higher with our Week 16 NFL Picks.
The favorites ruled in Week 15 as they went 11-4-1 ATS. That’s almost a full reverse from the week prior when dogs covered over 60% of the games. The books have already started good in Week 16 and two dogs, the Steelers and Chargers, covered. And I expect more underdog outright’s today as every game in the 1:00 PM and 4:00 PM window has a spread of 4 points or less.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 38-26 (last week 4-1)
NFL BETS WEEK 16
CAROLINA PANTHERS +4 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS
We’re going back to the well here in fading Green Bay. The Packers have lost two straight games as significant favorites. And they enter today against the Panthers as a solid favorite again. But they just haven’t played well in that role. Their only true win as a favorite was against the Rams when Brett Rypien was the starting QB.
As for Carolina, they’ve covered 2 of 3 since Frank Reich was fired. They’re also 3-3 ATS at home. And their strength, which isn’t much, is their pass D which is ranked 17th in DVOA (rushing D is 31st). Green Bay does not have a strong running game but ranks 5th in passing O DVOA. If you can’t attack Carolina on the ground, they’re able to hang in games. Combine that with the Packers recent discouraging play as a favorite and we have a good spot to back Carolina.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3 vs DETROIT LIONS
The Lions are looking to clinch the NFC North for the first time in 30 years. And they can do that today with a victory in Minnesota. But if we know anything about Detroit Lions football, nothing ever comes easy. First, the Vikings are in desperation mode as a loss today would likely push them out of playoff competition. Secondly, the Lions started the season with three impressive road victories. But since then, they are 2-2 away from home with their two wins coming by a combined 8 points (vs LAC and NO). Additionally, the Lions are just 2-2 in Division this year losing their last two games to NFC rivals.
The key will be the Vikings D and their ability to create pressure against Detroit. The Lions have allowed the 4th least sacks in the league. But the Vikings are 9th in the league with 41 sacks. Being able to get home against Goff could be the difference between a win and a loss. And if we know one thing, it’s that the Vikings are almost ensured to play a close game. So take the points, and I’d even advocate buying up to +3.5 (if you can keep the juice at -140 or lower).
ATLANTA FALCONS -2.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The Falcons are ready to post their job announcement for a new head coach. But before they do that, there is work to be done on the field as Atlanta still has an outside shot at the playoffs. New Orleans loss on Thursday has cracked open the door even wider for the Falcons and their fate is almost directly in their control. So they’ve done the unthinkable and switched their QB once again opting to go with Taylor Heineke. But for today’s game, I do think this is a good move as their opponent, the Colts, are vulnerable against both the pass and run. However, to beat Indy, you must be able to keep pace and gain positive yards in the passing game. And Heineke gives them the best chance to do that.
Additionally, the loss of Zach Moss and Michael Pittman can’t be fully quantified. Gardner Minshew relies on Pittman and without him, I foresee his risk taking to turn into turnovers. As much as I don’t like Arthur Smith, I do like money. And for that reason, I’m backing the Dirty Birds today.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES -12.5 vs NEW YORK GIANTS
This game lines up to be a make-or-break game for the Philadelphia Eagles. They come into Monday’s game against New York on a 3-game losing streak and doubts are starting to rise throughout both the fan base and organization. There are reports this week that some people inside the Linc are concerned about Jalen Hurts and his ability to lead. Which is utter nonsense considering they gave him one of the biggest contracts in the NFL just 6 months ago. So this one game will be a test of wills as they will not only have to battle their rivals from the north, but will also have to shed the weight of losing.
And I expect the Eagles to bounce back with resilience this week. Once again, as it was last year with games against NY, the battle in the trenches is the reason the Eagles matchup so well against the Giants. Last season, Philadelphia went 3-0 against the Giants and outscored them 108-45. In those games, the Eagles ran for 656 yards averaging 219 per game. And on the other side, the Eagles pass rush should finally break loose against a Giants offensive line that has allowed the most sacks in the league at 76.
BONUS BET: NEW ENGLAND +13.5 / JACKSONVILLE +7.5
Adding another teaser for your holiday betting action.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
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