Dave Gloeckner 
We rebounded nicely in Week 5 of the NFL by winning three of our four bets. I’m now 12-8 on the season with a 60% win rate. While that’s solid, the public went bananas against the books by going 12-2 ATS last week (based on # of bets placed). The only true win that Vegas had was in the England game where the Jaguars covered and won outright as a dog against Buffalo. That makes four straight winning weeks for the public so tread carefully this week, or ride the wave.
Looking as season long data, there has been no separation between favorites and underdogs as they are split down the middle with an identical 38-38-2 record ATS. We have seen the road teams cover slightly more often than the home teams, with a record of 40-36-2. But more impressively, the public has won at a 62.5% clip.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 12-8 (last week 3-1)
NFL BETS WEEK 6
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3.5 at CINCINNATI BENGALS
I backed the Bengals last week and they came through in a big way by beating the Cardinals by 14 points. That game prompted post-game quotes from Ja’Marr Chase that he’s always open like a 7-11 store. Typical wide receiver talk and it was good to see Cincinnati finally feed their star the ball. But there’s trouble lying this week with Seattle. First, the Seahawks are coming off a bye week and are fresh coming across the country. Secondly, in their last game against the Giants, they sacked QB Daniel Jones eleven times. And while the Giants grade as the lowest pass blocking unit, the Bengals aren’t much better as they are the 7th worst OL in pass blocking.
The Seahawks have allowed a few big games to WR’s this season, but they own the 5th best defensive line according to pass rush rate. When we flip to the other sides of the ball, Seattle owns the 11th best run block offensive grade but the Bengals have the 3rd worst rushing defense in the NFL according to DVOA. The week off, plus the big advantage at the line of scrimmage, will keep the Seahawks in this game if not see them win it outright.
TAMPA BAY BUCS +3 vs DETROIT LIONS
The Buccaneers, like the Seahawks above, are coming off a bye-week. They also had an impressive win before getting a week off to rest as they smoked the New Orleans Saints in Week 4. And now that they’ve bottle up that good energy for 2 weeks, they get to uncork it against a Detroit team that is coming in somewhat short-handed. That’s because they’ve already ruled out RB Jahmyr Gibbs and LG Jonah Jackson. Additionally, rookie TE Sam LaPorta is listed as questionable. That would be a huge blow to a passing game that will be sorely needed against the Bucs who are rated as the 2nd best pass defense according to DVOA.
And while that’s just a small piece of the game side of things, the real reason I’m backing Tampa is due to the money and bets coming in as of this writing. Detroit opened as a 3.5 point favorite and has 76% of the bets and 54% of the money. Yet, the spread has moved in Tampa’s favor down to 3. Yes, that may be partly due to the aforementioned injuries, but it’s also a sign Vegas is not willing to give the hook to Tampa backers even though that’s the side they need. When we see a situation like this, they’re seeing sharp money come in on one side, and that’s likely the case here in Tampa. I’ll ride with the sharps, as well as the Creamsicle jerseys, this weekend in Tampa.
HOUSTON TEXANS +1.5 vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Here’s the first game where I will back the public. The Houston Texans have competed in every game to date and could easily be 3-2 and tied for the AFC South lead. But they let one get away last week against the Falcons and lost on a last-second FG. And they now move onto another NFC South opponent in the New Orleans Saints. The difference in this one is that they are home where they are 1-1 ATS and 1-1 SU (opposed to 1-2 SU on the road).
What I like in this one is that fact that is the Saints are 1-3-1 ATS on the season. Their first cover of the season was last week at New England where they got a defensive touchdown early and held the Patriots to just 156 total yards of offense. But this isn’t Mac Jones as the Texans have only turned the ball over twice this season. The Saints, on the other hand, are 6th in the NFL in takeaways with nine. Something will have to give in this one and if the Saints aren’t creating TOs then the Texans will be able to move the ball and put points on the board.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +2.5 at ATLANTA FALCONS
Honestly, I have no idea how this spread is just two points. But then I looked into a few factors and started to realize we have a live dog on our hands with Washington. First off, Atlanta covered the spread in Week 1 versus Carolina but is 0-4 ATS since that game. Secondly, Washington has played just two games on the road but is 2-0 ATS away from home. The Commanders are coming off an embarrassing defeat to the Bears but have extra days to right the ship since their last game was a Thursday Night Football game. Add to that Atlanta has won two games at home where they were favorites of 3 points or less, and failed to cover in both.
I see the odds stacking up nicely here for Washington to move the ball in the air against the Falcons who rank 25th in the NFL in passing defense DVOA. And Washington’s defensive weakness is Atlanta’s issue as well, as both struggle in the passing game. Give me the Commanders to continue their road efficiency and pull of the upset in the ATL.
SURVIVOR PICK BUFFALO BILLS
For transparency, I took the Kansas City Chiefs on TNF and kept my Survivor Pool alive without having to sweat a Sunday or Monday game. So, to be short here, my favorite picks outside of that are in the following order:
- Buffalo Bills vs NYG: Bills get Tyrod Taylor this week. And they’re coming off a loss. This one could get ugly.
- Miami Dolphins vs Carolina: The Dolphins are averaging 55.5 points per game at home. Carolina has the worst defense in football according to DVOA. Good luck Frank Reich.
- San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland: With DeShaun Watson out, the Browns turn to Dorian-Thompson Robinson. DTR threw three INT’s in backup duty for Watson last game. And now he faces the best defense in football. Ouch.
- LA Rams vs Arizona: The Rams impressed me last week. If they can keep a clean pocket for Stafford, he can still pick you apart. And with the return of Cooper Kupp, that should happen this week in LA. Cardinals are beat up and can keep it close. This is a risky pick but one that could reap benefits later in the season if you’re able to save a top team like the 49ers, Dolphins or Bills.
Good luck all and keep the win streak alive!
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