Dave Gloeckner 
Happy New Years Eve to the WinDaily family. Today is our last chance to take one more bite out of 2023. Here at WinDaily Sports we’ve been fortunate to have the support and comradery from a group as passionate as us about sports. We’ve seen big wins in the community from MLB, NBA, NHL, NASCAR, UFC, PGA, CFB, NFL and more. But let’s see if we can put one final big one in the books and start 2024 tomorrow with a some extra money in our pockets. And that’s what you have if you’ve been following my College Football Bowl Picks, I’m 16-8 over the past week hitting at a 67% clip.
The books got back on track last week as favorites covered in just seven of the sixteen games. More importantly, the books won the lopsided bets coming home with a 4-1 record when the public had 70% or more of the bets on one side. Today is a big day in the NFL as we the remaining 14 games of the week on all Sunday.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 40-28 (last week 2-2)
NFL BETS WEEK 17
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS +2.5 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are looking to clinch the NFC South for a 3rd straight year. And they can do just that today with a win over the Saints. Just this time it will be without Tom Brady which is somewhat of a surprise according to preseason odds. Newly signed QB Baker Mayfield has found a home in Tampa and surged of late helping the Bucs win four in a row coming into Week 17.
On the other hand, the Saints are limping into this contest by losing four of their last six games. Their new QB, Derek Carr, looks terrible in a new offense and hasn’t been able to find any consistency.
So we have two teams, going in opposite directions, with new QB’s also playing with different projections. But yet, the Bucs are favored by less than 3? This feels like a trap. And when it feels that way, I zag while others zig. If you take a deeper look at the stats, the Saints have some clear edges. First, the Saints pass defense is 10th in DVOA which is their strong suit. The Bucs are bad running the ball, sitting 27th in DVOA, but excel in the passing game ranking 14th overall. That type of split plays directly into the Saints hands. And New Orleans actually has a better point differential even with one less win.
The Bucs have played well as dogs this year, but are just 2-2 ATS as favorites. And Baker Mayfield is 13-25 ATS as a favorite. It just says NFC South to have this race go down to Week 18 and potentially have a team win the division with a losing record. I’ll take the points today with NO but also think they win outright.
ATLANTA FALCONS +3 vs CHICAGO BEARS
The Bears are coming into this game playing very good football as they are winners in three of their last four games. Their only loss in that stretch was by three points to the surging Browns. The key to the revival has been an opportune defense that has 10 turnovers in the last four contests and held opponents to just 14 points per game.
But speaking of defenses, the Falcons have tightened things up of late allowing just one touchdown over the past two weeks. And my primary reason for liking them today is that they have the 5th best rushing defense in the league according to DVOA. The areas to exploit Atlanta is in the pass game as they are 28th in that category in DVOA. But the Bears are just the opposite as they are 10th offensively in the running game and 24th in the pass.
Atlanta’s offense isn’t good or flashy. But they showed good balance last week where they racked up 177 rushing yards and 229 passing yards against the Colts. With that type of balance, and the defense having an edge, I expect Atlanta to hang around and cover this number. Plus, as of this writing, 81% of bets are on Chicago and the line has stayed steady.
NEW YORK GIANTS +6.5 vs LA RAMS
I’m giving you the abridged version here as I’m getting ready to hop on the WinDaily NFL Pre-Lock show in the next 30 minutes. But I’m backing the Giants because I believe Tyrod Taylor can make plays in the passing game to keep this close. And wouldn’t it be so New York if they actually won a game they shouldn’t to hurt their draft stock? Well, maybe they don’t win this one but coach Daboll hasn’t lost the team and I think they’ll play hard today for him.
DENVER BRONCOS -3 vs LA CHARGERS
I’ll side with the public on this one. Sean Payton got his way and benched Russell Wilson as part of the transition to move on from the embattled QB. LA played tough last week against Buffalo. But that game against the Raiders is still on tape. And the motivation in LA has to be low as they are without their top two WR’s and a handful of other starters.
BONUS BET: GREEN BAY PACKERS +1.5
Adding a bet to close out another profitable week. Looking to close out at 4-1 and will back the Packers here. The defense is questionable but they are facing a rookie QB making his first career start in Jaren Hall. Take this for what it’s worth but Green Bay is 2-0 ATS in domes this year.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
