Dave Gloeckner 
We ended up with a split last week but missed another winning week by 0.5 points as the Seahawks gave a game away against Cincy. The Sea Birds had four possessions inside the 20 in the 4th quarter and mustered only three points. But those are the breaks and we’ll look to bounce back in Week 7. There are six teams on bye this week, and with a Thursday game already played, that means we have just 12 games left to choose from.
We saw the books bounce back last week as the public went just 6-9 ATS. Some of the big results for Vegas were the NY Jets (+6), Cleveland (+10) and NY Giants (+14.5). It was the first week we’ve seen multiple double digit dogs cover.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 14-10 (last week 2-2)
NFL BETS WEEK 7
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +3.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns pulled off the upset of the NFL Season last week as they took down the 49ers to hand San Fran its first loss of the season. Backup QB PJ Walker managed the game well and RB Kareem Hunt produced big plays in the running game. But it was a dominant defensive effort as the Browns held the 49ers to just 215 total yards. The Colts, on the other hand, slept walked through 3 quarters as they fell to their division rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars, by a count of 37-20.
So we have two teams heading in opposite directions. But yet, I like the home dogs in this one and here’s why. First, the Browns have played just one road game this season and they lost that one to the Steelers. They haven’t played a road game in over a month which is a significant factor to handicap. They’ve also had the distraction of whether QB Deshaun Watson will toughen it up and play this week. His status is still questionable.
Lastly, the Colts are 3-1 outside of playing Jacksonville. They’ve beaten the Ravens, another AFC North team, with Gardner Minshew at QB. Their biggest weakness is their defense, but the Browns biggest weakness is offense. The Browns rank 22nd in Offensive DVOA and 20th in yards per game. The Browns passing game is even worse, ranking 31st in both DVOA and passing yards per game.
This game has a total of 41, one of the lower on the slate, so in a matchup that looks to be even, I’ll take the points and the Colts.
BALTIMORE RAVENS -3 vs DETROIT LIONS
I’ve been good with backing Detroit this season until last week when they won at Tampa. Their defensive prowess was on display as they made Baker Mayfield look like……Baker Mayfield. But this week, they have a much more challenging task trying to contain Lamar Jackson. The Ravens won in London last week against the Titans and spent as little time overseas as possible as they flew in on Friday and left immediately after their win. That doesn’t work for everyone, but it did for John Harbaugh’s team. So unlike week’s past, where I tried to fade a team coming back from Europe, I am actually backing the Ravens because of their unique travel plans.
Add to that, the Lions are on their 2nd straight road game and 3rd in four weeks. They are without their leading rusher as well as some other key components. While the Lions are third overall in total defensive DVOA, the Ravens are second. With the defensive stalemate, and the teams having similar offenses, I look at this game to be a battle of QB’s and coaches. And in both situations, I favor the Ravens. The Lions are very good and will be in the Super Bowl talk all season, but this is a step up in class and one in which Baltimore will be focused to take advantage of.
ATLANTA FALCONS +2.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
No NFL spread this week has moved more than the game between the Falcons and Bucs. Atlanta opened as a small favorite but has now been pushed to a 2.5-point underdog. The optics are bad in Atlanta, as they are coming off two poor performances in which their QB struggled. And since Week 1, they are now 0-5 ATS. Last week’s loss to Washington was a combination of several things, but the main reason was a 0-3 turnover ratio.
The Bucs on the other hand have beaten the Vikings, Bears and Saints. Not necessarily a murder’s row of teams. And the one area in which Atlanta struggles, pass defense, is not particularly the strength of the Bucs. Add to that, the public is hammering Tampa with 65% of the bets and 65% of the money coming in on Bucs. I’ll fade them here as we have the classic case of recency bias with Atlanta struggling and the Bucs sitting at 3-2 and atop the NFC South.
KANSAS CITY -5 vs LA CHARGERS
The Chargers did Chargers things again last Monday night as they threw the game away versus the Dallas Cowboys. With a potential game winning drive, QB Justin Herbert threw a critical interception allowing the Boys to come home with a much needed road victory.
In Mahomes career, he is 7-2 against the Chargers with a 99,9 passer rating. Last season he went 2-0 against LA and threw for 574 yards eith 5 TDs and 0 INT’s. While he owns the Broncos and Raiders, he tends to play his best ball against LA. I just can’t trust Brandon Staley, or Justin Herbert, in a close game against Andy Reid and Mahomes. The Chiefs have not impressed the public bettors of late but are 4-2 ATS this season including 2-1 at home. This is a chance for KC to put a stranglehold on the AFC West Division Title for an 8th straight season. And I expect them to take full advantage of that opportunity.
SURVIVOR PICK SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
At this point, you have probably taken the 49ers and Chiefs. So, we have to look outside the normal NFL powerhouses for our survivor play and we have a good one with Seattle. The Cardinals, after their nice start, have been outscored 95-45 over the past 3 weeks. And the Seahawks won both games by double digits against Arizona last season.
The only other play I feel that has some upside is the Washington Commanders. But I took them in Week 1 against Arizona so they’re off the board for me.
Good luck all and keep the win streak alive!
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