Dave Gloeckner 
We are keeping ahead of the sticks here at WinDaily with our weekly NFL Game Bets. Unlike other sites, we post our picks, good and bad, and track our record. Posting a 58% win rate against the spread is good. But our bar is higher and we’re looking to get there over the next 5 weeks.
Week 13 was interesting as it saw a staggering number of road teams cover. In fact, the away teams were 10-3 ATS last week. The public held tough with the books going 6-7 ATS. But Vegas rallied late and took home wins with SF, Green Bay and Cincy to salvage the week.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 32-23 (last week 2-2)
NFL BETS WEEK 14
BALTIMORE RAVENS -7.5 vs LA RAMS
Lamar Jackson versus NFC teams is like a cheat code. The Ravens QB is 20-1 in his career SU against NFC opponents. Speaking of this season alone, Baltimore is 3-0 against the other conference and has outscored those opponents by a score of 106-33. They’ve played two of those games at home, against quality teams in Detroit and Seattle, and won those games by a margin of 75-9. The Rams have been a nice story this season, showing that HC Sean McVay still has more in the tank. But the Rams weaknesses are the Ravens strengths. The Rams have a top 10 pass offense but the Ravens rank 2nd in pass coverage according to PFF. On the other side, the Ravens have the #1 rush offense according to DVOA and the Rams have the 21st rushing defense in DVOA.
LA CHARGERS -2.5 vs DENVER BRONCOS
The Broncos turnover luck regressed last week as they lost the TO battle for the first time in six weeks. That ended up costing them the game in Houston as the Texans walked away with a last-minute victory by intercepting Russell Wilson to seal the game. The Chargers are a different story as their highly acclaimed offense took a back seat to their maligned defense last week as LA beat NE by a score of 6-0.
But I expect that to change this week as the Chargers offense will look to break out against the league’s 31st ranked defense in Denver. While I hate to lean on the Chargers in close games (0-6 in games decided by 4 points or less), Denver is just 2-3 SU away from home and 1-4 ATS.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -5.5 vs CAROLINA PANTHERS
The Saints are on a three game losing streak and fading in the NFC South race. But they welcome in the worst team in the league today in the Carolina Panthers to help end their streak of attrition. The Panthers are coming off a back-door cover in Tampa last week as they competed but lost 21-18. Speaking of back-door covers, that’s exactly what Carolina did to New Orleans back in Week 2 when Bryce Young threw a TD with one minute remaining to close the scoring at New Orleans 20 and Carolina 17.
But that luck only lasts so long. Carolina is now 0-7 on the road with four of those games being decided by double digits. The Saints advantage at the line should make a difference as Carolina has the 3rd worst pass blocking unit and the 5th worst run block rate.
TAMPA BAY BUCS +2.5 at ATLANTA FALCONS
Surprisingly enough, this is the biggest game in the NFC South and could ultimately determine the division winner. The Falcons won their first meeting against Tampa by a score of 16-13. With a win today, they would have a perfect 4-0 record in the division and a minimum 1.5 game lead in the NFC South. But instead, I’m backing the more desperate team today in Tampa for a few reasons. First, Tampa has played competitively away from home posting a 2-4 record but 4-2 ATS. Additionally, they’ve played four games in domes and are 2-2 but have a +11 point differential.
On the other side, the Falcons have been outgained by the Jets and Falcons in the last two weeks but found ways to win those games because of turnovers and one of those turning into a defensive TD. Much like Pittsburgh, it’s hard to continue to be outgained and win. And looking at the metrics, Tampa has the better units in all three phases according to DVOA:
- OFFENSE: Tampa 21st / Atlanta 24th
- DEFENSE: Tampa 14th / Atlanta 25th
- SPECIAL TEAMS: Tampa 24th / Atlanta 25th
SURVIVOR PICK NEW ORLEANS
A lot of survivor leagues have wrapped up due to big upsets last week in Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. But if you’re still going then your choices are probably limited. In that case, take the Saints today against the Panthers. New Orleans has not given us much confidence this season, but their advantages at the line and the noise in the dome should be enough to make Bryce Young cough up the ball once, or more.
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