Dave Gloeckner 
Week 3 ended in good fashion as the Eagles dominated the Bucs on MNF to get us to 2-2 for the weekend. The bad part was our survivor pick as “America’s Team” got dominated by the worst team in the NFL. Dak was Dak and Dan Quinn got outcoached by a PeeWee Herman doppelganger. That sums it up but the good news is that I play in two survivor leagues so we can keep this train moving.
As always, I like to look at some of the trends from the previous week. For week 3, it was all about the favorites which also meant the public did well since they like to ride the chalk. Overall favorites were 9-6-1 on the week and covered several big lines. And remember, being with the public isn’t a bad thing as witnessed by the 49ers vs Giants game last week. We just need to pick our spots wisely to back the general pool of people because as we know, Vegas wins in the end.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 8-4 (last week 2-2)
NFL BETS WEEK 4
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1 vs LA RAMS
The Rams sputtered on MNF versus the Bengals going 1 for 4 in the redzone and letting a game slip away that they should have won. HC Sean McVay abandoned the run and ended with a 63/37 run-to-pass ratio. Which was a curious move as the Bengals are ranked 28th in rushing defense according to DVOA.
This week, they get to face the Indianapolis Colts who are a surprising 2-1 to start the season. The Colts are coming off an upset victory in OT against the previously undefeated Baltimore Ravens. And now they come home for a cross-conference tilt with their rookie QB cleared to play. And we’ll get to that in a second. But the key in this game will be the Colts defensive front as they are 2nd in the league with 12 sacks. As we know, Matt Stafford isn’t very mobile and was sacked six times against Cincinnati last week.
As for the rookie QB, Anthony Richardson, his status is the biggest reason I’m backing the Colts. Outside of one late mistake against Jacksonville, this team could be 3-0. And we saw his dynamic playmaking ability in Houston in Week 2 when he ran for two TDs in the first quarter. The Rams faced two bad rushing teams but are still ranked 29th in rushing defense DVOA. This is a great matchup for both Richardson and Moss to dominate the ground game and give the Colts a decided edge to get the W.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +6.5 at DALLAS COWBOYS
The Patriots have arguably the hardest schedule to start the year. That has toughened them up for a game like the one they are scheduled to play Sunday in Dallas. On the reverse side, the Cowboys have faced the easiest schedule in the NFL yet they are just 2-1. They have played against the following QBs; Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson and Joshua Dobbs. While Mac Jones is behind Dobbs in QBR, he is the most talented thrower the Boys have faced this season.
However, the real challenge in this game lies in the trenches. Dallas is ranked 20th in rushing defense DVOA and that’s with the two New York teams ditching the run game due to score. Last week, Dallas allowed over 220 rushing yards to the Cardinals as well as an eye-opening 7.2 ypc. That was against a physical runner in James Conner. Which is exactly what they’ll see this week with Rhamondre Stevenson. Bill Belichick was surely watching last week and took notes.
Then there’s Dak Prescott. The Patriots have bottled up both Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa (I won’t even mention last week’s QB in the same sentence as these two). They will have a gameplan in place to confuse and befuddle Mr. Prescott.
I’m not calling outright, but the coaching margin is as wide as the Grand Canyon and I believe the Patriots will be able to keep this game within reaching distance right to the end.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -3.5 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS
The New Orleans Saints not only lost a heartbreaker in Green Bay last week but they lost their starting QB, Derek Carr, to a shoulder injury. And after what we saw from Green Bay on Thursday Night Football, against the Detroit Lions, bettors will surely question the Saints.
But instead, I’m looking at this game as a premium opportunity to back the Who Deys. First, the Saints have only allowed three offensive touchdowns this season. In fact, they haven’t allowed more than 18 points in a game this year. Only three teams have allowed less points than this Saints defensive unit. And if you watched MNF last week, then you know Baker is still Baker. Meaning he’s bad. The Eagles outgained the Bucs by 298 yards as Tampa managed just 174 yards of total offense. The running woes of a year ago are back as the Bucs have the worst yards-per-carry at 2.8.
As for the offense, RB Alvin Kamara returns from a three-game suspension this week which will inject energy, and skill, into the backfield. Then there is Jameis Winston, who will start in place of the aforementioned Derek Carr. We know he is a gambler but one who can get hot. And speaking of getting hot, he’s playing against his former team that discarded him for Tom Brady. Jameis doesn’t need much for motivation but there’s a lot already there for him in this one. I will be tuned into the pre-game hype speech and hoping that energy gets us a winning ticket.
BALTIMORE RAVENS +1.5 at CLEVELAND BROWNS
I promise you all, I tried to avoid the Browns game this week. But after all my research, I just couldn’t turn away. Just like a crazy girlfriend, no matter the circumstance, they have me wanting more. Now, the good news is, I’m 3-0 in Cleveland games this year. So take that for what it’s worth when reading this section.
My concern with the Browns this week revolves around their offense. Even if they were healthy, I’d have doubts about Watson and company and their ability to move the ball on the 5th ranked defense according to DVOA. But health is the key word here, as several notable players including QB Deshaun Watson and TE David Njoku are questionable. Cleveland’s pass offense, so far, is ranked 23rd and they have been sacked 12 times which is 4th most in the NFL.
In the end, this pick is about the Ravens resilience as they lost a tough game last week against Indianapolis. John Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson rebound well from losses. In the last two seasons, Jackson is 6-0 SU following a loss (*counting games he started and finished). That’s enough for me to back Baltimore this week and see them win a pivotal division game.
SURVIVOR PICK
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Jalen Hurts is 20-1 in his last 21 regular season NFL starts. The one loss was to the Washington Commanders last year in Philadelphia. That’s enough motivation for someone that doesn’t need much to get him dialed in for games.
And Washington looked terrible last week as they turned the ball over five times against the Bills. The Eagles defensive line will create similar problems for QB Sam Howell and help the Birds get another W.
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