Dave Gloeckner 
Four weeks in and we hit our first losing weekend of the season. Fading the public has resulted in negative results to date. But that doesn’t mean we should change our formula or plan of attack. This season is a long sprint and past data shows that we can stay on top as long as we are consistent. As for survivor, we stayed alive albeit barely. The Eagles won in OT against their Division rival Commanders to let us stay afloat. For my pool, there are just 15 people left and I have two of those entries. I hope you have a similar script and if so I’ll give you my top play of the week below.
As always, I like to look at some of the trends from the previous week. For week 4, it was all about the public once again as they went 10-5-1 ATS (over 50% of bets made on a side). Overall favorites were 9-6-1 on the week and covered several big lines including the 49ers spread over the Cardinals. Vegas is waiting for a reckoning, and it might come as soon as Week 5. As always, they will get their money back, but the key is to find out when.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 9-7 (last week 2-2)
NFL BETS WEEK 5
PITTSBURGH +4.5 vs BALTIMORE
I played Pittsburgh in Week 2 which was following an embarrassing defeat. We are in a very similar situation as the Steelers are coming off one of their worst performances in several seasons. In Week 4, they lost to the Houston Texans by a score of 30-6 and were outgained by over 200 yards to a rookie QB. This made four straight weeks in which the Steelers were outgained but yet they are still 2-2.
While this was somewhat predictable in parts because the Steelers offense is unequipped to battle with top teams, they are in an advantageous position this week as Baltimore comes to town. First off, Steelers HC Mike Tomlin is notorious for bouncing back after a loss. In fact, the Steelers have won their last six games as a home underdog following a road loss. And looking back at this series as a whole, the underdogs have covered the spread seven straight times.
Baltimore is also playing it’s third road game in their last four weeks. All three of those are against Division opponents. Finally, the public is backing the Ravens heavily as 66% of the bets and 70% of the money is coming in on Baltimore so far. One week doesn’t define a team but last week’s optics put the Steelers in a poor perspective for public bettors. Instead, I see value in Pittsburgh this week and think they’re live for an outright win against their heated rival.
NEW YORK GIANTS +12.5 at MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Giants laid a big fat egg on MNF in Week 4 against the Seahawks. And there is little reason for hope and optimism with Big Blue. Their QB, Daniel Jones, is underperforming but the O-Line isn’t helping as they allowed 11 sacks to Seattle last week.
But here’s the thing, 97% of the money and 90% of the bets have come in on Miami. I haven’t seen a situation, or a game, where Vegas would be setup to lose that badly.
This is a close your eyes and pray type of bet, but similar to the Chiefs last week against the Jets, the bets on this game is too lopsided and feels like a setup. In 2022, double digit underdogs went 19-9-1 ATS. They haven’t fared as well in 2023, but the data set has been too small as we’ve seen only four games with double digit spreads.
I’ll take Vegas, and the recent trend of big dogs covering, when placing my Giants bet this week. It’s risky, but to me worth the backing in this spot.
CINCINATTI BENGALS -3 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS
We have two teams sitting at 1-3 but also pointing in different directions. Up until last week, the Cardinals were competitive in every game and even pulled off a huge upset against the Cowboys. Because of that positive play, they are sitting as 3-1 ATS on the season.
Cincinnati on the other hand has been playing terrible football. They are 1-3 overall and 1-3 ATS but could easily be 0-4 if the Rams didn’t let them off the hook two weeks ago. Last week felt rock-bottom as the Tennessee Titans dominated the Bengals on both sides of the ball.
So as both teams are headed in different directions, we’ll never see an opportunity like the one presented to back the Bengals. Preseason odds had this spread at -7 or higher. The Bengals were one of the top four teams in Super Bowl futures betting while the Cardinals were last. Yet, we now have polar opposites in terms of play and now the spread is just Cincinnati -3.
There comes a point when the Bengals will just simply have to wake up and play better and I’m betting it’s this week in Arizona. The road can be the best place for a struggling team and can offer a place for them to bond and focus on football only. I’ll bet this is the week the Bengals finally straighten things out and start to play like the team we all expected they were.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +5.5 at BUFFALO BILLS
This is a proverbial road game for Jacksonville but in reality, they are closer to home than their opponent. The reason for that is this game is being played in England where the Jaguars have a minimum of one game per year. And in this case, it’ll be their second straight game playing overseas making them that more comfortable and ready for the environment and travel.
The other factor in play is the lopsided action on this game. As of right now, the Bills are getting 75% of the bets and 89% of the money. A classic case of over-perception on one team as Buffalo is coming off one of the most impressive wins of the season when they beat the Dolphins 48-20.
SURVIVOR PICK MIAMI DOLPHINS
The Eagles made it closer than it needed to be last week against the Commanders. But they prevailed in OT and got the most important stat of all, a Win. So we move forward and I’m going to roll with the Dolphins this week. Even though I’m taking the Giants with the points, they don’t have enough firepower to keep up with the Dolphins Fast and Furious offense. The GMen will do their best to avoid a 1-4 start and will give a spirited effort. But Miami is too skilled, and too fast, for the Giants to pull off the upset.
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