Dave Gloeckner 
Another week with two solid wins and two not so good results. The Chargers losing Justin Herbert to a finger injury obviously put us in a precarious position. But fading the public in Atlanta was our biggest edge and it resulted in an outright upset win for Tampa. With four solid weeks of football left, we’re heading towards the finish line of a profitable NFL season. Hitting at 58% and up 7.5 units to date is a good season. But of course, we want more!
The books had a profitable week in Week 14. The dogs went 9-5-1 and the public went 5-9-1. The biggest wins came on Monday night as two underdogs won outright in NYG and Tennessee.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 34-25 (last week 2-2)
NFL BETS WEEK 15
MIAMI DOLPHINS -8 vs NY JETS
A lot of this hinges on the ankle of Tyreek Hill. So I’m waiting out the news on his status before I jump fully on this game. If he’s out, and we can find a number under 7, then I’m still going to back Miami.
But the main reason I like Miami this week is because of their running game and the Jets porous rush defense. On the one hand, the Jets allow the 5th most rushing yards per game at 131.8. They are also 15th in rushing defense DVOA. As for Miami, they are 2nd in rushing offense DVOA and have the 2nd most rushing yards in the league. They also average the highest yards per carry at 5.3. They do not have to pass the ball heavily to dominate the game today. And with Achane (questionable), Mostert and Wilson, they have enough carriers to stay fresh and execute a run heavy game plan.
Lastly, the Dolphins are 3-0 after a loss and have won by an average of 12.5 points per game.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS+6.5 at LA RAMS
This bet is a story of two teams that come into this game with two distinctly different rest situations. The Commanders are coming off a bye week and haven’t played in 14 days. The Rams are coming off an OT game in Baltimore, which was played 3000+ miles from their home. Additionally, outside of a 4th quarter collapse in Dallas, Washington is much better on the road. They are 3-4 SU away from home (1-5 SU at home) and 5-2 ATS on the road. As for the Rams, they are 3-3 SU at home with their wins coming against Josh Dobbs (Arizona), Joe Flacco (Cleveland), and Geno Smith/Drew Lock (Seattle). The latter came on a Seahawks missed FG.
Point here is the Rams are in competition for a playoff spot but have had a tough travel routine of late while Washington is coming in fresh and plays better on the road. The public is also backing the Rams with 63% of the tickets and 58% of the money on LA.
TAMPA BAY BUCS +3.5 at GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Packers looked to have turned the corner but played complacent last week and ended up waking up too late to salvage a win in NY against the Giants. Now they’re behind the 8-ball again and will need to find a way to get started quickly today against Tampa.
But it’s a short week and Green Bay doesn’t run away from teams. They have played five straight one-score games coming into today. Additionally, Tampa is also a better road team than they are at home. The Bucs are now 5-2 ATS (3-4 SU) on the road and have a +16 point differential. I like the hook and believe Tampa’s running offense will keep them in the game long enough to potentially pull off the upset.
BUFFALO BILLS -2 vs DALLAS COWBOYS
We have an awesome game today sitting in the 4pm slot. The Buffalo Bills have won two straight games and are looking like the team everyone thought they were at the beginning of the season. As for Dallas, they got their first win against an opponent with a winning record last week by dominating the Philadelphia Eagles. And that has now enlightened the public bettors as they have flocked to the window to back the team with a star on their helmet. As of this writing 74% of the money and 80% of the bets are on the Cowboys. Yet, Vegas hasn’t moved this line more than 0.5 points all week.
I still think Dallas has issues in tight situations. They have proven they can win blowouts but Dallas is just 2-1 in games decided by six points or less. On the other hand, the Bills have played nine games decided by six points or less. If this game is close late, I’ll take the team in Buffalo that has played over 68% of their games that are defined in the clutch. Plus, Buffalo’s weakness is their run defense and Dallas is just 16th in rushing offense DVOA.
BONUS BET: KANSAS CITY -2 / SAN FRAN -6
With most Survivor Leagues over, let’s add a fun bet to today’s card. If you do have a survivor pick left, the Rams and Falcons would be ideal (unless you still have KC or Miami left).
I don’t often play teasers but today we have an opportunity to grab two of the best teams in the league against two of the worst. Additionally, we can get under two key numbers (3 and 7) which is what you should always look for in the teaser market.
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