Dave Gloeckner 
We had a good radar on most games last week until each QB we backed threw a critical INT. It was Mac Jones (on one of the worst throws an NFL QB has ever thrown), then Jameis Winston, followed up Zach Wilson putting one right on a Raiders numbers. And that’s what you can get when backing terrible teams. So we move on in a season where we’re still sitting at close to 60% winners. The public ran hot again last week by backing Dallas, Arizona and Minnesota. But the books did win back some money on MNF with the Broncos covering the spread and winning outright. All together, the public was 7-6-1 in Week 10.
This week features just two home dogs and has four games with spreads over 9 points. So it’s a tough week to find good landing spots as home dogs have been paying off this season. But we have four picks below that we’ve identified that fit in our betting landscape.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 22-18 (last week 1-3)
NFL BETS WEEK 11
CLEVELAND BROWNS -2 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Oh how I’ve missed you Cleveland. Over the first four weeks of the season, I bet every Browns game and was 4-0 in those outings. But once they started playing QB roulette, I stayed away from the Dawg Pound and looked for other viable alternatives. However, now that the dust has settled and QB Deshaun Watson is out for the season, I feel like it’s time to go back to Ohio and the lovable Browns. And today, I’m backing them versus the Steelers as they turn the page and start a new season with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.
The biggest reason I’m backing the Browns is their defense. We’ve seen this with several teams in the past after they lost their QB, and often the defense has to carry the load and step up their play for the team. And while the Browns D has done that most of the year, I expect them to be even better today against Kenny Pickett and the Steelers. Pittsburgh is ranked just 17th in offense according to DVOA while the Browns are the #1 defense. And take into account the Browns are 4-1 at home and the Steelers lost their one game on the road against a team with a winning record by a score of 30-6.
BUFFALO BILLS -7 vs NY JETS
I realize the Bills are a tough team to back. They are now 5-5 on the season straight up and 3-7 ATS. In fact, they’ve lost 6 straight ATS and haven’t covered a game since their drubbing of Miami in Week 4. But I’ve seen enough of the Jets over the past two weeks as we’ve been subjected to seeing them fail miserably while playing in prime time. In those two games alone, they’ve managed just 18 total points and scored zero TDs. And those were against the 18th (Raiders) and 27th (Chargers) ranked defenses in the league. While Buffalo hasn’t been great defensively, they still suit up a stellar D Line as they are 2nd in the NFL with 33 sacks.
Sometimes the sting of a loss like the one Buffalo had on Monday to Denver, can motivate a team. The Bills have shown the ability to play down to teams but also blow teams out. Buffalo has the 4th highest point differential, +78, while sitting at just 0.500. That type of point difference projects to a 7-3 record.
So I’m backing the talent and fading the ineptitude today. Yes, the Bills aren’t playing good football. But their antennas will be up today as they face a division rival who upset them in Week 1. I expect the blow out version of the Bills to show up today and send the Jets even further back in the standings.
GREEN BAY PACKERS +3.5 vs LOS ANGLES CHARGERS
Green Bay has been a huge disappointment this season. QB Jordan Love has not progressed and threw another crippling INT last week against Pittsburgh in a game they should have won. The Packers are now 1-4 in games decided by six points or less. But their opponent today, the Chargers, are just as bad in close games as they possess a 1-4 record in games decided by 6 points or less. So we have two bad teams, that make bad plays, and find ways to lose. In a situation like this, I’ll take the home team and points as my deciding factor. Because in the end, Matt LaFleur has gained more trust than Brandon Staley. Even though they look like the same floundering team this year.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +3 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Being an Eagles fan, I stay away from betting their games or providing betting advice. Unless I feel there is a good opportunity to back them with not just my emotions but money too. And that looks to be the case this Monday Night in KC as I think the Eagles will be motivated to play their best game of the season. For one, Jalen Hurts has the knee brace off which signifies his mobility is back. That was the biggest factor in the Super Bowl as the Chiefs couldn’t stop Hurts because he was elusive in the pocket and broke off big runs when needed.
The other factor here is the Chiefs have not looked good the last few weeks. The once vaunted KC offense has put up just 17 points/game over the past month (4 games). And that includes a defensive touchdown against Miami. The Eagles pass D is bad but their run defense is the best in the league. Looking back at the Super Bowl, the Chiefs ran for 158 yards and had a 6.1 ypc. That ended up playing a huge factor in their win as they kept the Eagles D Line guessing and unable to put pressure on Mahomes. If the Eagles negate the run this week, and turn KC into a one-dimensional passing attack, they will be able to get to Mahomes and make life tough on the Chiefs QB.
SURVIVOR PICK JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
I still have the Lions left but I’m trying to save them for Thanksgiving against Green Bay. So the next best option available is the Jaguars who face the Titans today in North Florida. With Baltimore losing Mark Andrews and the Dolphins having a tough schedule ahead, the Jaguars could put themselves in pole position for a top 2 seed in the AFC. If they’re to get there, they must come out of Duval with a win today and I expect them to do so against a Titans team that scored just 6 points last week against Tampa.
NOTE: My next favorite plays behind the two above are the Dolphins and Cowboys. I have a pool that started two weeks ago and am using the Dolphins in that one.
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