Dave Gloeckner 
We brought out the brooms last week and finished with a pristine 4-0 record as well as a Survivor win. Not all weeks are built the same but staying consistent and driving in our lane paid off. As for the public, they finally saw a bad week going 3-10 ATS. And normally, when the public loses, that means favorites do as well as they finished 5-8 ATS in Week 8. So, the scales are tipping and it’ll be important for us to still find the right mix of betting spots to attack.
We have a full slate of games this week as no NFL teams are on a bye.
2023 SEASON RECORD: 18-10 (last week 4-0)
NFL BETS WEEK 8
GREEN BAY PACKERS +1.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Packers and Vikings are headed in opposite directions. Since Justin Jefferson’s injury, the Vikings have won two straight games. And in those outings they’ve scored just 41 points but their defense has settled in and allowed just 30 (averaged allowed 24.5 ppg in first 5 weeks). As for Green Bay, they are coming into this contest losers of three straight games and are averaging just 16.6 ppg in that span.
But, streaks are meant to be broken and I like the Packers to come away with a win today, First, the biggest difference in this contest is the Packers O-Line versus the Vikings D-Line. According to PFF, the Packers have the following advantages:
- Packers O-Line Pass Block (7th) vs Vikings D-Line Pass Rush (31st)
- Packers O-Line Sacks Allowed 10 (2nd lowest) vs Vikings D-Line Sacks 19 (14th best)
The other thing I’m factoring is this, the last five teams that beat San Fran, and played the following week (i.e. no bye), went 0-5 ATS in their next game. And that includes a 1-4 straight up record with the only win being last week’s Browns (controversial win at that).
LA CHARGERS -8 vs CHICAGO BEARS
The end of the Brandon Staley is near. Another promising season is once again being wasted away with curious call after curious call. The Chargers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball yet they sit at 2-4 and 3.5 games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West.
But here’s why I like the Chargers in this spot. In the last 3 seasons, the Chargers are 7-5 ATS when favored by 6 points or more. On the other side, Chicago is 2-5 ATS the last 2 seasons when an underdog of 7 points or more. More importantly, they are 0-4 ATS the week following a straight up win.
From a football standpoint, both defenses are bad and rank 29th (CHI) and 28th (LAC) respectively in DVOA. But the difference is on offense where the Bears are ranked 25th in DVOA and the Chargers are 8th. In order to cover a big spread like this, there needs to be a team that can score and has a top offense. We have that in this case and the last point is, I’m not putting money on Tyler Bagent on the road.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -5 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS
The 49ers are coming back west after losing two consecutive games to mediocre teams. But home is where the heart is, and I expect the 49ers to get their mojo back in a big way today. San Francisco is 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year with their average score being 36-13 (outscored their opponents 107-38). As for Cincy, outside of their road win at Arizona, they laid two duds away from home losing to the Browns 24-3 and Titans 27-3.
The Bengals are coming off a bye, but there’s still something amiss with their offense which ranks 23rd in DVOA. They’ve scored more than 20 points just twice this season. The 49ers are going to feast against a below average O-Line today and give Burrow little time to throw.
CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS
The Panthers have allowed 42 points in consecutive games. So the bye week was needed in order to hit the reset button and figure out their deficiencies. This unit was a strength last season but has now become one of the worst units in football as shown with the 32nd ranked rush defense. But fortunately for Carolina, in comes a Houston rushing offense that is ranked 30th in DVOA. So weakness meets weakness here which could ultimately decide the difference.
As we know, this is a battle between the top two QBs selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. And CJ Stroud has the upper hand so far but a win today could sway things for Bryce Young. As for the Texans, they are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 SU on the road this season with their one win coming in Week 3 against the Jags.
Lastly, while I don’t consider him a good head coach, Frank Reich is 4-0 ATS after a bye week. The Panthers are going to bite eventually, and they have some motivation this week to do so. Give me Carolina as this number has risen past a key number. This is a pass for me at three points or less.
SURVIVOR PICK BALTIMORE RAVENS
Lamar Jackson is 17-1 against NFC opponents in his career. Good enough for me to take a road team today.
If you don’t have Baltimore, my other recommendations are:
- LA Chargers
- Detroit Lions
- Dallas Cowboys
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