Dave Gloeckner 
The Eagles comeback win against the Chiefs on MNF gave us Philly fans a memorable win but also a four-game sweep in our bets for Week 11. But that page has turned, and we now look towards the best football day of the year, Thanksgiving. As always, this is a day to spend time with family and be thankful for life and the important people in it. But we also get a chance to bet some football and maybe even build that bankroll. So with that, I bring you our annual Turkey Day Three Pack!
2023 SEASON RECORD: 26-18 (last week 4-0)
NFL BETS WEEK 12 THANKSGIVING DAY
GREEN BAY PACKERS +8.5 at DETROIT LIONS
The Lions have played on Thanksgiving every year since 1934. And in their record on this holiday is 37-44-2. More importantly, Detroit has lost 6 straight games on Thanksgiving with their last win coming in 2016 against the Minnesota Vikings. But this is a different Lions team as they own the second best record in the NFL at 8-2. Additionally, they own the best record ATS at 7-3.
These teams have played once this year already and the Lions completely dominated that game winning in prime-time at Lambeau by the score of 34-20. And now the Packers are without their star RB Aaron Jones who left last week’s game with a knee injury. Yet, the oddsmakers have kept this line just above 7 points all week yet bringing in 70% of the tickets on Detroit.
Add to that the Lions are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 games against the Packers and 11-1 in their last 12 games ATS against NFC North opponents. It just looks too easy and for that reason I’m going to back Green Bay. If anything, the Packers have been better on the road this year. They are 1-4 away from home but have a plus 7 point differential as their four losses have been by a combined 11 points. As for the Lions, they are good at home but just 3-2 ATS in the Silverdome.
I’ll stick with my principles here and fade the public even though the teams are headed in drastically different directions.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +13 at DALLAS COWBOYS
The Cowboys blowout bad teams (outside of a team from the desert). And that’s even more true at home where their lowest margin of victory has been 20 points (30-10 vs Jets).
But they Boys don’t play as well on Thanksgiving. They are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 games played on Turkey Day. As for the Commanders, they are 5-0 ATS on the road as a dog. Dallas has the firepower to dominate this game, but will they need to? I’ll side with the trends here and back Washington in what could be a late backdoor cover.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -7 at SEATTLE SEAHWAKS
This is the main event and one you’ll hopefully be able to stay up and see. The top two teams in the NFC West face-off for the first time this year. Last season, they ended the top two teams in the Division and faced off three times. And the 49ers dominated all three matchups winning by a combined score of 89-43. Looking deeper in the box score, San Fran outgained Seattle by an average of 145 yards per game.
And now Seattle has question marks on offense as Kenneth Walker III and Geno Smith are both questionable. While many expect Smith to play, the question will be how much zip he can get on the ball with an injured elbow. This is the biggest public side of the day as 76% of the bets are coming in on SF. And while the 49ers defense did bother me last week against TB, I expect them to tighten that up and bring the house against a wounded duck taking the snaps for Seattle. So I’m willing to back the public here and side with the team with momentum and one that has dominated their opponent of late.
SURVIVOR PICK DETROIT LIONS
If you still have Dallas available then lock them in and go enjoy your dinner. But for me, the pool of teams is getting shallower. So my best option tomorrow is the Detroit Lions. They’ve shown some moxie of late winning close games against the Chargers and Bears. So even if this game is close in the 4th, I trust the Lions recent wins will help push them over the hump against the Packers. Jordan Love has not been good at closing out games and I can’t see him doing so tomorrow.
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