Dave Gloeckner 
Week 1 was just so-so. We went 2-2 on our four bets. On the bright side, we did nail the Jags as the Dolphins are all hype. But we put faith in Mr. Kohl’s who paid us back with one of the worst games of his career against the Pittsburgh Steelers. How is Atlanta feeling about that investment in Kirk Cousins now? Looked exactly like what they saw out of Ridder and Heinecke last year. As for Win Daily, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.
As for Survivor, week 1 was crash and burn as we laid an egg with the Bengals. But my pool allows a buy-back after week 1 so we turn the page and try to get back on the winning track in week 2. I will not fade the Pats this week!
NFL BETS WEEK 2 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 2-2)
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS -1.5 vs NEW YORK GIANTS
The betting market is flooded with New York money this week. And it’s a wonder if they even watched football last week as the Giants ranked up there as the most disappointing team of the week after getting trounced by the Vikings to a tune of 28 to 6. While the Commanders didn’t fare well, allowing 392 yards to the Buccaneers, they at least had a pulse. As of this writing, 83% of the bets and 80% of the money is on the Giants making this a very public play.
Yes, I know the stats revolving around Giants QB Daniel Jones and his propensity to play well against Washington. He is 5-1-1 against the Commanders in his career and has a 10 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Comparably, he is 17-37 against the rest of the NFL. However, Jones was 0-4 against the Cowboys when Dan Quinn, the new Commanders HC, was the DC in Dallas. And in those contests, he averaged just 151 yds/game passing with a 1 to 3 touchdown to interception ratio. Yes, the Cowboys have a better D than Washington currently employs, but it does show Quinn knows how to attack Jones.
Also, the Commanders big weakness in Week 1 was their pass D as they allowed an 80% completion rate and 4 passing TD’s to Bucs QB Baker Mayfield. As we all know, the Giants offense doesn’t have that type of burst from their passing game. In fact, it’s ranked 30th in DVOA, trailing just the Browns and Panthers. I also like the matchup of Jayden Daniels dual threat attack versus the Giants. According to PFF, the Giants were rated last in rush defense last week as they especially disliked the LB play led by Bobby Okereke (55 snaps and recorded just 2 tackles). This is very notable as the RPO needs to be controlled by the DE’s and LB’s.
I missed on Washington in Week 1 but I’m going back to the well here. And hopefully doing it with an unbiased mind. The public is all over the Gmen. Which is always a reason to zig. But I also think the Giants will not be able to take full advantage of the Commanders weaknesses and they’ll also have challenges of their own to stop a powerful run game from the Commanders.
BALTIMORE RAVENS -8.5 vs LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Raiders HC Antonio Pierce was a great story last season as he rallied the troops after the firing of Josh McDaniel. And because of his passionate leadership, he was hired as the permanent head coach in the offseason. So, there was plenty of good vibes around Vegas knowing Pierce was at the head of the spear. But those vibes may have disappeared in just one week as the Raiders HC made several head scratching calls, including a punt late in the game on 4th and short in Chargers territory. Which means the jury is out on Pierce and with every misstep and loss, the trade Davante Adams campaign will just get louder. Making each Raiders game must see TV.
But the real reason for backing the Ravens here is the fact that Baltimore is coming off a Thursday night game. And the Raiders are traveling due east and starting a game at 1pm EST. Speaking of the latter first, the Raiders are 0-7 since the start of the 2022 season on the road against teams east of the Mississippi River. That included a 30-12 loss last year to Chicago, who was starting QB Tyson Bagent. As for the Ravens playing on Thursday, they were able to endure 3 extra days of rest and are 5-0 since 2018 on the week’s following playing on Thursday night.
The Ravens let one get away in Kansas City and did not play their best football. Baltimore has extra rest and is playing a team that doesn’t play well on the east coast. Remember, Baltimore led the league in point differential last season and had nine wins by double digits. They know how to win big and have a very good opportunity to do so tomorrow against a Raiders team that looks to be in turmoil already.
DETROIT LIONS -7.5 vs TAMPA BAY BUCS
We have a rematch of the NFC Divisional Round playoff game last season in which the Lions won 31-23. The big difference in that game was turnovers as the Lions won that battle 2-0.
Looking back at Week 1, the Lions were fortunate to come away with a victory as they needed OT to get past the Rams. Down south, the Bucs looked solid in their thumping of Washington. So simply from an eye test, and based on the close contest in the playoffs last year, these two teams look much closer than a 7.5 point spread.
The issue stems from Tampa’s health on defense. Especially in the secondary. They suffered four key injuries in Week 1:
- All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield is presumed OUT with a foot injury
- CB Bryce Hall went on IR after Week 1 (nickel corner)
- Starting CB Zyon McCollum suffered a concussion, is questionable but did practice Thursday
- DB Josh Hayes suffered an ankle injury, did not practice Wednesday or Thursday
That spells doom against a high-profile passing attack such as the Lions. I’m also concerned about the efficiency at which the Bucs can move the ball consistently. Tampa ranked 29th in rushing DVOA in week 1 and was 25th in rushing rank per PFF. Therefore, I’m siding with the Lions and for Detroit to get their first 2-0 start since the 2017 season.
CINCINNATI BENGALS +6 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Bengals once again floundered in their season opener. This time to a gutty Patriots team. For all intensive purposes though, gutty or not, the Patriots were supposed to be one of the worst teams n football entering the season. And what was more concerning was the offensive output as they scored just 10 points.
So, there’s no wonder that just 19% of the money this week is on the Bengals as they travel to KC in Week 2. In my Yahoo pick-em pool, 79% of the picks are on the Chiefs at -6.
Which is the perfect opportunity to buy low on Cincy. Listen, they looked terrible in week 1. But the Bengals play the Chiefs tough. Burrow is 2-0 in his career in the regular season against Mahomes. And he’s 3-1 overall including playoffs.
The Bengals need WR Tee Higgins back and I’m not sure he’ll suit up. If he is able to go, this becomes a smash play. Otherwise, the Bengals will need to find ways to get the ball to Chase early and often.
The Chiefs are always a public team, and rightfully so. And the Bengals are at a low point in bettors eyes. But this looks like a great spot to fade the norm and back a team that is better than what they showed last week. I’ll take the points with a possible outright win by Cincy.
SURVIVOR PICK
BALTIMORE RAVENS
I don’t always want to take the biggest spread but the fact that the Ravens lost week 1 and aren’t happy with it makes me very happy to back them ATS and in survivor. Baltimore is not happy with how they played against KC and will look to take that out on Vegas. Plus, based on the reasons above, the Raiders have some serious disadvantages that will be too tough to overcome.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
