Dave Gloeckner 
Week 2 was just very good for us in the betting market. I went 12-4 in several pools, and more importantly won our Win Daily pool on the Sleeper App with an 11-5 mark. The position of fading the market and not buying the hype worked well. On the Win Daily page, I was just 2-2 and that puts us at 4-4 overall. But that’s solid as we’re going to grow the early season malaise into a winning way. So follow and hop on the train when you see fit. As I’m confident we’re on our way to another winning season here in the NFL betting market. Looking at the Win Daily team, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.
As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.
NFL BETS WEEK 3 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 4-4)
HOUSTON TEXANS -1 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
I highlighted this last year, that I like to fade teams coming off a win versus the 49ers. But 2024 ended up being different as teams coming off a win versus the 49ers were 4-0 SU the following week (49ers had 5 losses but their 5th was in week 18 to Rams).
However, I’m back on the bandwagon of fading teams off a 49ers win and it starts this week with the Vikings. Minnesota has looked good in 2024 by beating the Giants soundly then following that up with a big win against SF. But the jury is still out as they have a mediocre QB in Sam Darnold and a bunch of misfit toys on offense with WR Justin Jefferson the only real threat for defenses. Minnesota will be once again without WR Jordan Addison as he’ll this week with an ankle injury.
The real key is the Vikings pass D which has been bad the past few years. The Texans strong point is their pass O, with CJ Stroud passing to a triumvirate of quality receivers in Stefon Diggs, Nico Collins and Tank Dell. On the other side, the Texans are bringing a fierce pass rush and that will help befuddle Darnold and create turnover opportunities.
The Texans didn’t look great on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, but they won. Which is the sign of a good team. They’ll take those lessons learned and apply them into a big road win in Minnesota this weekend.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS -1 vs CHICAGO BEARS
In a battle of promising young QB’s, I’m going with Anthony Richardson and the Colts today. Indianapolis lost a tough game at Green Bay last week. That was off the heels of a narrow loss to division rivals the Houston Texans. The big reason why they’re sitting at 0-2 instead of 2-0 is turnovers, as Richardson has four interceptions to his name already this season. And each one has been unforced and unfortunate. But the good news for the Colts is their offensive line has played stellar as they are #1 in pass blocking and run blocking this season. So there is room for yards to be had even against a tough Bears D.
On the other side, we have a team in the Bears that are 31st in the league in total offense. Chicago QB Caleb Williams is running for his life as he’s been sacked nine times in the first two games. It’s evident that teams are willing to blitz Williams and force him to flush out of the pocket. I expect the Colts will do the same today and make life hard, once again, on the 2024 #1 pick.
TENNESSEE TITANS -2 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Will Levis experience has not been fun for HC Brian Callahan. Two inexplicable turnovers in the first 2 weeks have cost the Titans dearly as they lost nailbiters to the Jets and Bears. The good news is the defense has been outstanding, holding teams to 206.5 yds/game. That ranks 1st in the league.
We know the issue in Tennessee is the QB play, especially the turnovers. In Green Bay, they have their own QB issues. Former Titan QB Malik Willis looks inline to get another start today. The Packers limited Willis to just 14 pass attempts last week as they chose to try to win a game like the 1960’s teams, with the running game. Green Bay ended up running the ball 53 times last week for a 79/21% run to pass ratio. That type of gameplan won’t work today in Tennessee as the Titans allow just 92.5 yards/game on the ground in 2024.
We need to keep an eye on the Jordan Love situation because if he is able to play this line will shift. And it could impact whether or not I play the Titans.
CAROLINA PANTHERS +6 at LAS VEGAS RAIDERS
Close your eyes and say a prayer for me. As I’m betting the Carolina Panthers today when they travel to Vegas to take the field against the Raiders. I’m playing numbers here, as what we’ve seen on the gridiron so far could now have me logically back the Panthers. First, the switch to QB Andy Dalton should boost some life into an inept offense. Dalton has been solid wherever he’s gone and is a serviceable NFL QB. Secondly, the Raiders are traveling back west after one week on the east coast. And that week was productive as they pulled off a shocking upset of the Baltimore Ravens. However, the back-and-forth travel, plus the exuberance of a huge win will play against them today.
The other piece of good news is that these teams are much closer in DVOA than the spread suggests. The Raiders are 25th in defensive DVOA while the Panthers are 24th. Offensively, Carolina ranks 32nd, but Las Vegas isn’t far behind at 28th. In yardage, the Raiders allow 349.5 yds/game (24th) while the Panthers allow 364 yds/game (25th).
Lastly, the books are showing just 8% of the tickets and 7% of the bets coming in on Carolina. Yet, they’ve only moved this line by 0.5 points since it opened. Something seems fishy in Vegas as this shows signs of potential smart money coming in if the line is moved to 6.5 or 7. It’s a cat and mouse game at the windows that I’m sure bettors, and odds makers, are keeping an eye on. But the volume coming in now doesn’t align with line movement. Close my eyes and say a prayer, I’m playing the numbers and zagging against the public with the Carolina Panthers (note it’s worked the first two weeks).
SURVIVOR PICK
TAMPA BAY BUCS
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