Dave Gloeckner 
We had our first big week of the NFL season last week going 3-1-1 in our posted game bets and hitting on 3 of 4 prop bets in Discord (including a +180 ATD bet). Then we started off this week with another winner as we cashed the Bengals at +6.5 on Thursday Night Football. So things are trending upwards as we look to get back, or over, the 0.500 mark this week. It’s taken a while, but staying consistent and fading the public has started to put money in our pockets.
As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Lions.
NFL BETS WEEK 10 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 18-20-1)
NEW YORK GIANTS -6 at CAROLINA PANTHERS (930am EST)
Reminder, this is a European game, so you have to get your bets in early for this one. The Giants and Panthers are in Munich for the final game of the season being played overseas. Both teams are 2-7 and each showed some fight last week, including a win by the Panthers over the Saints. To think this is almost a touchdown spread seems wild, considering how bad the Giants have been this year. But the troubles have mainly been at home, where New York is 0-5 with a point differential of -67. On the road, they are 2-2 with a point differential of +4. And this week, they are as far from home as possible.
On the other hand, the Panthers pulled off a big win behind QB Bryce Young as they beat the Saints 23-22. Considering they lost 47-10 to the Saints in Week 1, this was a massive turnaround and one that could provide momentum for the second half of the season. But I’m not buying it. Despite the win, Carolina is still the worst team in football with a -146 point differential. When they lose, they lose big. Each of their 7 losses in by double digits. So, if you think the Giants will win, chances are it will be by a wide margin.
Also consider the betting market is showing significant smart money on the Giants. The public is pouring in 67% of the bets on Carolina but just 28% of the money.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -6.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
Tampa gave everything they had on MNF against Kansas City despite being completely shorthanded on offense and defense. Yet, the Chiefs snuck out another one score victory with an OT win against the Bucs.
Now Tampa has a short week to prepare for San Fran who is coming off a bye. And news coming out of the bay is that star RB Christian McCaffrey will be activated for the game tomorrow.
This just looks like a tough spot for a Bucs team that struggles to stop the pass and is playing on fumes against a fully rested opponent in the 49ers.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +4 vs BUFFALO BILLS
The Colts couldn’t have looked much worse last week in their primetime matchup on SNF versus the Vikings. Indianapolis managed just 6 offensive points and 227 total yards on way to a defeat in Minnesota. It’s left many to question whether benching QB Anthony Richardson was the right move. But HC Shane Steichen has stuck to his guns and once again handed the QB reigns to Joe Flacco. The Bills, on the other hand, pulled out an impressive win over the Dolphins despite being outgained by 50 yards and losing the time of possession battle.
The Bills win last week gave them a 4.5 game lead in the AFC East. At this point, the division is pretty much wrapped up as the Jets are in 2nd place at 3-6 overall. The Colts are sitting at 4-5 and playing a must win game. I’ll take the hungrier team in this matchup to pull off the outright win and keep their season alive. Add to that, the Bills have their arch-nemesis on the schedule next week in the Kansas City Chiefs. Looks like a classic trap game and look ahead spot.
HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 vs DETROIT LIONS
The Lions are coming off another dominant performance. This time against their most hated rivals in the Green Bay Packers. Detroit is now 7-1 and look like the class of the NFL. This week they take their 6 game winning streak to Houston to face off against the 6-3 Texans. Houston is took a loss to the Jets on TNF in Week 9 despite outgaining the Jets by 30 yards. The main reason for the loss was the redzone, as they converted just 1 of 4 opportunities from inside the 20.
The books are taking big money on Detroit this week with 83% of the bets and 73% of the money on the Lions. Yet the opening line has moved from Detroit -4 to Detroit -3.5. Houston may have the services of WR Nico Collins this week which would be a boost to their offense. But they have enough on the defensive side to keep this game close as they rank 2nd in overall defense. I’ll fade the public here and take the Texans who will surely be motivated as a home dog in primetime.
BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD
SURVIVOR PICK
LA CHARGERS
The Chargers defense is solid and will keep Tennessee under 20 points. QB Justin Herbert is having a great season with 10 TD’s to only 1 INT. The recipe for success in LA is to play tough defense, run the ball and win the turnover battle. They’ll do all three tomorrow en route to their 6th win this season.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.
