Dave Gloeckner 
Week 15 was good for us as we posted a 3-2 record on our game bets. But yesterday wasn’t good for us in NFL as we went 0-2 backing both road dogs. On the good side, we did go 2-1 in college football yesterday so all wasn’t lost. We’re still hanging tough and staying above the red line, but we’re looking to take a big leap over the next three weeks so we can have a nice little wallet for the playoffs.
Of note, the dogs went 5-11 last week. Which is a reverse split from Week 14 when we saw the dogs rule the day. We have to assess whether this is a sign of things to come down the stretch or whether it was just an anomaly for Vegas.
As for Survivor, if you’re still alive, congrats. We gave out the Eagles last week and they came through. We’re trying to look at teams that you may not have taken yet based on schedule.
NFL BETS WEEK 15 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 39-38-1, game bets only)
NEW YORK GIANTS +9 at ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons were the news story of this week as they turned the page on the Kirk Cousins experiment after only 14 games. Atlanta now hands the ball to rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. The former Washington QB was picked in the top 10 of the 2024 NFL Draft and led his team to the College Football Championship Game. He’s uber talented, and has a great set of receivers and backs to throw to in Atlanta.
The reason I’m backing the Giants today is because of the expected ramp up that is typically needed by a rookie QB. Even the great Jayden Daniels lost his first game this year when he played the Bucs. The same can be said for Bo Nix and Drake Maye. The only QB that won his first start this season was Caleb Williams but that was because Will Levis turned the ball over 3 times including a pick 6 to lose the game (Bears trailed 17-0 as well).
Giants are terrible and packing it in. But Atlanta’s defense isn’t strong enough to completely pin down the G-men. Malik Nabers is still an issue and the Giants have found some success on the ground of late. I’ll take the points today, reluctantly.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -1 at MIAMI DOLPHINS
Two of the more disappointing teams in the NFL square off today in South Florida. While both seam deflated, I’m backing the 49ers today to show up with some added motivation and play a distraction free game. For one, the incident involving their LB De’Vondre Campbell not wanting to play last week should galvanize this team. They should want to play as together as they had all season to help rid themselves of that noise and build a new foundation for 2025.
As for the Dolphins, Tua turned it over 4 times last week as the pass rush affected him greatly. San Fran still has a solid front and can create havoc along the line. Then there’s this little thing with the coaches as Mike McDonald comes from the Shannahan tree. I’ll take the teacher as the student has not shown up this season.
CAROLINA PANTHERS +5.5 vs ARIZONA CARDINALS
The books, and me, got a little too excited by the Panthers recent play. From being a favorite versus a 5-win team, the Panthers are now a 5+ point dog against a 7-win team. This just feels like a little overreaction here to a bad game. The Cardinals haven’t been lighting it up, losers in three of their last four. And more troubling, they are 2-4 on the road SU this season. Those two wins were both by one point each so their overall point differential in those six games is -36 (they are +44 at home). I’m banking on the Panthers to return to their competitive ways and possibly pull off an outright win today in Carolina.
NEW YORK JETS +3.5 vs LA RAMS
I said I wouldn’t be the Jets again back in Week 13. But I broke that rule last week and it paid off. The reason being, the Jets are now playing with house money. Rodgers had his first 300-yard passing game in years last week. Which just shows they’ve shutout the noise and are just playing football. My concern for the Rams is they are flying across the country, playing an early game, in freezing weather. Remember where Rodgers once played? Yes, cold shouldn’t be a factor. But it could for a QB that’s played his whole career in a dome and LA.
BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): Chicago Bears +7.5 (-120)
SURVIVOR PICK
GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Saints are a mess. The Packers aren’t. Do you think the Saints will be up to play in the freezing cold of Green Bay in December just 2 days before Christmas? I don’t.
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