Dave Gloeckner 
We were so close to a sweep in Week 5. A reliable kicker, Evan McPherson, missed a FG in OT that would have put some cash in our bank. And Matt Stafford threw a late pick while the Rams were headed to a cover, and potential win, to cost us as well. So it’s another 2-2 week and what could have been. But the good news is, close means we’re trending right in our analysis. So I’m looking forward to this new week and new chances to get back on the winning track.
As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.
NFL BETS WEEK 6 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 9-11)
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS -1 at CHICAGO BEARS
The Jaguars opened as 2.5 point underdogs and have shifted to favorites over the week. And looking at the action being bet on the early game in London, the Jags still are getting a minority of the bets and money. There are no significant injuries to either team, so the shift in line seems to be predicated on early sharp action on the Jags.
Either way, this does look to have a Jaguars type flavor to it. For one, Jacksonville is used to the overseas travel and has a routine for playing in London. So much so, they are actually playing there two weeks in a row for the second straight season. They’re accustomed to the travel, the practice routines, and most importantly the time change.
Then there is the matchup according to the team statistics. The Jags have the 32nd ranked defense according to DVOA. But that is mostly due to the terrible pass defense. On the other side, the Bears rank 26th in offensive DVOA. And they average just 191.8 yards/game passing the ball, ranking 23rd in the NFL. On the other side, while the Bears rank 7th in overall defensive DVOA, they are 30th against the run. Jacksonville ranks 16th overall in offense, according to DVOA, and has the 13th best rushing offense. That extends to PFF, as they have the 6th best rated run offense according to their metrics.
I like the normalcy of this game for Jacksonville and think their weaknesses won’t necessarily get exposed like they have against better pass offenses. Let’s start our Sunday with an early win.
CAROLINA PANTHERS +6.5 vs ATLANTA FALCONS
The Falcons brought Kirk Cousins to Atlanta in the offseason to improve their putrid QB play. They didn’t know they were bringing his luck in close games as well. The latest example was last Thursday when Cousins threw for over 500 yards in leading a game-tying drive in regulation to a game-winning drive in OT against the Bucs. The Falcons now sit at 3-2 overall, but their plus/minus is -4. That’s because their three wins are by 1 point, 2 points, and 6 points (OT). In fact, all five of their games are one possession games, being decided by 8 points or less.
We all know the Panthers are a mess. Their latest outing was maybe their worst, losing 36-10 at Chicago. They’ve allowed at least 22 points in every game and have a league worst point differential of -84. But when they hit their low, is when we pounce. Recall week 3, when we backed the Panthers in Vegas and they came away with an outright victory. Today is looking the same, as just 18%of the bets and 12% of the money is on Carolina.
And truth be told, the Falcons don’t play good enough defense to blow teams out. They’re allowing 23.5 points/game and 335 yards/game, both in the bottom half of the league. I think the Panthers can keep this one close enough for a while, and then Kirk Cousins will wake up and lead the Falcons on a GW drive.
DETROIT LIONS -3 at DALLAS COWBOYS
These two teams played a classic last year. The Cowboys held on to a 20-19 victory in that game pushing them to 11-5 and on their way to the NFC East title. But it took many curious calls by HC Dan Campbell to aid the Boys in their victory. The final was a 2-point conversion fiasco, as the Lions were afforded two chances (after a curious flag on a converted opportunity to an ineligible OL) but both fell short. I’m sure that moment, which was a low point for Campbell, will fuel as motivation today.
The other key is the Lions are coming off a bye and have been scouting the Cowboys for weeks now. And what they’ve seen is an offense that is not the same as it was last year when it led the league in points/game (29.9). This season Dallas is down to 23.4 points/game, good for 16th in the NFL.
Lastly, Dallas struggles on defense as well ranking 23rd in defensive DVOA and 31st in rushing defense DVOA. That is worrisome as Detroit is 2nd overall in rushing offense DVOA as the deploy two quality RB’s in David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. The Lions ability to exploit that weakness in the Cowboys will be the biggest factor, along with some added motivation from the HC, to help propel Detroit to a victory in Dallas. One they should have had last year.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +3 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The Steelers are a solid team, but they don’t put up enough points to ever put teams away.
CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS
This is a do-or-die game for the Bengals. After last week’s disappointing loss to the Ravens, Cincy has dropped to 1-4 and is 2.5 games out of the AFC North lead. The Giants are coming off a big win out west in Seattle, where they put up 29 points to beat the Seahawks. But news out of NY is that WR Malik Nabers is out for a second straight week, raising major concerns on how they’ll be able to keep up with a high paced Cincy offense.
SURVIVOR PICK
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
My survivor pool got so thin that they opened a new one starting this week! But the way this season has gone, this could be a bad investment. But I’m not getting tricky here, the Eagles aren’t very good but the Browns are worse. And Philly is coming off a bye with some renewed health. I’ll take the Eagles, in one of my only chances to do so, to start this new path to be the final survivor.
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