Dave Gloeckner 
Week 16 was a step backwards as we went 1-3 in our plays. Christmas Day we saw a 1-1 record, which was admirable but we wanted more. So we have two more weeks to hit a big one and we’ll start with Saturday’s 3-game slate. Speaking of a “big one”, I posted all five bowl games on Friday and am currently sitting at 3-0. Both the other bets are trending nicely but this could be a very big day. So keep an eye on Discord on Saturday, as there are 7 bowl games for our viewing, and betting pleasure.
As for Survivor, if you’re still alive, congrats. We gave out the Packers last week which was as easy as they come.
NFL BETS WEEK 17 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 41-42-1, game bets only)
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS +5.5 vs LA CHARGERS
The Patriots showed fight and heart last week against Buffalo. Which is important when handicapping bad teams at the end of the season. There were rumors that HC Jerod Mayo’s job was on the line and the team couldn’t show any regression, or quit, down the stretch. If not for some timely mistakes, including a backwards pass turned to TD, the Pats may have beaten their division rivals. Which is evident of no quit.
As for the Chargers, their defense drives this train for the playoff hopeful team. But we’ve seen some holes in that unit recently, as the Chargers have fallen to 13th overall in defensive DVOA. In the last 2 weeks, they’ve allowed a total of 67 points to their opponents. Which means I have some confidence the Patriots can put up some yards and ultimately turn those into points.
Add to that New England is 4-2 ATS at home this season while LA is just 4-3 on the road SU.
CINCINNATI BENGALS -3.5 vs DENVER BRONCOS
This is a win or go home game for the Bengals. And in reality, even if they win they could be going home as they need a lot of help to make the playoffs including a win by the Chiefs in Week 18 who have nothing to play for. The scary part of betting the Bengals this year, is their defense. That unit ranks 29th in DVOA and allows the 5th most points per game at 26.2. Even with a big lead, the Bengals D has found ways to allow teams back into games.
But the good news is that side of the ball has gotten much better in recent weeks. The Bengals D has forced 9 turnovers in the last 2 games and allowed just 33 points. If they continue that trend, this offense will have enough to cover a spread that has leaked over the key number.
In desperation, I’ll take the hungrier team and the more veteran QB. Which are both wearing black and orange stripes.
ARIZONA CARDINALS +6.5 at LA RAMS
This is the game of the year in the NFC West. With the Seahawks win on Thursday night, they’ve kept pace with the Rams and forced them to win this game to clinch the Division. And ultimately, that win may not be it as they still need some help from friends. But with a loss, it would almost certainly set them up for an elimination game in Week 18 against Seattle.
If you look back at the previous game this year, you’ll see the Cardinals whooped the Rams to a tune of 41-10. It was HC Sean McVay’s second worst defeat of his career as head coach in LA. The Rams are definitely a different team since then, winning 8 of their last 10. But are they different enough to win by a touchdown over a team that beat them by 4+ TD’s?
Since the Rams defeat of the Bills, by a score of 44 to 42, the defense has stepped up allowing just 15 points in the last two games, including 0 TD’s allowed. But that has been against the likes of the 49ers (in the pouring rain) and the Jets (in the freezing cold). With weather in LA looking balmy this weekend, I see the defense reverting to the one that allowed 42 to Buffalo and 37 to Philly. Arizona is a division rival and would like nothing more than to make things messy in the NFC West. I look for the Cardinals to play spoiler and keep this one close, if not pull off an outright upset.
BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): N/A
SURVIVOR PICK
N/A
Will provide a pick on Sunday’s slate
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