Dave Gloeckner 
Win Daily Sports is flying high into the first Sunday of the NFL Season. We’ve already had some solid hits on the Thursday and Friday Showdown’s. But now comes our wheelhouse, which is the Sunday Main Slate. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow but before then, hop into the projections and lineup optimizers readily available for all our members.
Like last year, I will be providing my top four games each week. Last season was a resounding success as I hit on 63% of my plays during the season and finished with a 49-29 record. You can check out Week 18’s article which gives the final tally as to how we finished.
I will also provide a pick for a popular pool that many casual and avid fans play called an Eliminator or Survivor Pool. You must pick one team to win on any given week in this format. The catch is if that team loses, you are out of the pool.
And if your team wins, you can’t select them again for the rest of the season. I’ve won several of these in the past years, and my strategy is simple: WIN the week don’t WAIT! Only canvass the future a little, and instead, focus on the now.
NFL BETS WEEK 1
ATLANTA FALCONS -3 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS
Whether it’s Russel Wilson or Justin Fields, I like the Falcons to come away with a victory and cover in week 1 against Pittsburgh. There are several factors in play here but the largest one for me is the difference in offensive talent. First off, Atlanta likely had the worst play at QB in 2023 with Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinecke battling for worst in the league. So it was no surprise the Falcons invested heavily in the offseason at QB and brought in Kirk Cousins as well as drafting QB Michael Penix. Overall, Atlanta has the superior offensive units by owning the better QB, RB, WR’s, TE and O Line. Speaking of the offensive line, the Falcons return all five starters from a solid unit last year. This was a unit that ranked 4th in pass blocking and 7th in run blocking a season ago.
Defensively, I will give Pittsburgh a slight edge as they can provide a solid pass rush and have quality players in the defensive backfield. But Atlanta strengthened theirs in the preseason with the addition of LB/DE Matthew Judon which helps one of their biggest weaknesses which was pass rush (no player had over 6.5 sacks for Atlanta last season). You could argue their biggest splash on defense was bringing in Rams DC Raheem Morris as their head coach as he’s been at the helm of several top 5 defenses.
Don’t forget about one key intangible here, and that’s the person calling the plays for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Last year Arthur Smith was the head coach of the Falcons and inexplicably ignored his best player, Bijan Robinson, and fumbled every move at the QB position. Now he calls plays for the Steelers and will undoubtedly be motivated himself to prove Atlanta wrong. But instead, I think the motivation will come more from the 50,000+ fans in the seats.
Lastly, I see a significant market imbalance as 65% of the bets are coming in on the Steelers yet 60% of the money is supporting the Falcons. That tells me where the smart money is, and I love to follow that trail right to the ticket window.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +3.5 at MIAMI DOLPHINS
Last year was supposed to be the next step for the Jags. In 2022 they came out of nowhere and won the AFC South under HC Doug Pederson. Then they won a playoff game, after being down by 28 points. And while they lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, they did hold their own. Which is why they wore the crown of “next one up” and ended up as a team that couldn’t handle expectations as they crashed hard with a late season collapse.
So, one can understand why everyone is picking the Dolphins this weekend. For one, Miami is a public team that displays a high-octane offense and has character at the coaching and skill positions. The Jags are the opposite, as their coach is barely heard from as well as their QB and other stars. In one Yahoo pool I’m in, 91% of the picks ATS are on the Dolphins.
Which means we are zigging while everyone else is zagging. But this is more about the Dolphins who we all have a saying about. They beat up on bad teams and lose to good ones. Miami proved that to be real as they were 1-6 against teams with winning records last year, with their one victory coming by 2 points against Dallas. Even more alarming is they were outscored by 100 points in those 7 games.
While Jacksonville just missed out on the playoffs, they were a winning team at 9-8. And they have talent that’s equivalent to the Dolphins. I think the Dolphins are a heavy public play so I’ll swerve and go against the populous. I expect the Jags to be motivated by last years failures and ome ready to play and win this game outright on Sunday.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +3.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCS
The Washinton Commanders are generating some good buzz lately as HC Dan Quinn takes over a team that has been often overshadowed by ownership issues and poor play at QB. They used the 2nd pick in the draft to select Heisman Trophy winner QB Jaylen Daniels. And he’s looked the part in training camp and preseason. Almost like a young RG III who burst on the scene his rookie season and propelled Washington into the playoffs.
On the other hand, the Bucs are fighting against Father Time and somehow delayed the inevitable rebuild for another year. But it did put them in a precarious position as QB Baker Mayfield played so well that they had to sign him to an extension. I find that as more of a problem than solution as Mayfield isn’t the long term answer, as witnessed by his 2022 season when he was found jumping team to team. We’ve also seen WR Mike Evans continue to perform and high standards but he now enters his age 31 season meaning his production will soon see a dip.
The other trouble is the Bucs can’t run the ball efficiently. Which is exactly what HC Dan Quinn wants to do to offenses, which is make them one-dimensional. I like the matchup of the unknown (WASH) versus the overachiever (TB) here. Also factor in that Vegas doesn’t have teams fully figured out yet. Last year in Week 1, underdogs went 10-6 ATS and road teams went 12-4 ATS. I think this is a spot that’s dangerous for Vegas as they’re seeing 68% of the money come in on Washington.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -5.5 vs DENVER BRONCOS
The Seahawks made a big change in the offseason as they parted ways with long-time HC Pete Carroll and brought in the Ravens DC Mike MacDonald to assume the role as Head Coach. While Carroll still has a role with the organization, this is clearly a new genre and one in which MacDonald has full autonomy. The Hawks were abysmal on defense last year and he has the pedigree and coaching aptitude to change that immediately.
The trouble for Denver is they have a rookie QB in Bo Nix starting his first NFL game. And it’s being played in one of the most raucous stadiums in the NFL in Lumen Field. Yes, Nix played in Oregon the last 2 years but that won’t get him prepared for the level of noise the 12th man brings.
Finally, this game has one of the largest deltas in ticket handles versus amount of money bet. At the time of this writing we’re seeing 47% of the tickets come in on Seattle against the spread. But more importantly, 74% of the money is on the Seahawks. This could impact the line by tomorrow so keep an eye on that. However, if you can get -6 or less than book it.
SURVIVOR PICK
CINCINNATI BENGALS
The Bengals are in much better shape heading into the first week of the season than they were last year. There O-Line has been addressed and their franchise QB is fully healthy. They also received good news yesterday when star WR Ja’Marr Chase indicated he would play this weekend despite contract talks hitting a stalemate. But the real reason for this play is their opponent, the New England Patriots. The Patriots are considered by most to the be the worst team in football. They have the lowest win total at 4.5. And by all accounts from the preseason, HC Jerrod Mayo has some learning to do. Mayo looked overwhelmed in several situations including his choice of starting QB.
You don’t have many games in which you can use Cincy this year as the AFC North is one of the best divisions in football. So take them when you can and this is definitely one of those situations.
Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.
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