Dave Gloeckner 
We had another solid outing by going 3-1 in our plays from last week’s article. The Jets are the only team that prevented us from sweeping. So they are now on my banned list. Well at least banned for backing purposes. I also posted the Packers +3.5 last night hitting yet another Prime-Time game. Keep those post notifications on if you’re tailing as I’m usually waiting for late injury news before finalizing my plays. I will note, we had SF last Sunday night and that was trending nicely until McCaffrey’s injury. Therefore, overall, I was 4-2 in the past week which gets us to the magical 0.500 mark. Let’s keep this rolling as this time of year is the best time to make some extra cash.
Of note, the public went 11-5 last week. Of the 5 “non-public” plays, we were on four of them all weekend with Chicago (Thursday), LV (Friday), Arizona and Carolina. Road teams stole the show going 9-7 ATS in Week 13 with eight outright wins.
As for Survivor, the Broncos did what I expected and forced Jameis into critical turnovers. If it wasn’t for those pick 6’s, the Browns would have come out with a victory. So we breathe a sigh of relief.
NFL BETS WEEK 14 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 32-32-1, game bets only)
ATLANTA FALCONS +5.5 at MINNESOTA VIKINGS
This is the 3rd straight week I’m betting against Minnesota. And if you’ve followed me the previous weeks, then you have some extra cash in your pockets. The Vikings are a very fashionable 10-2, but just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. The market has adjusted and so have other teams. It’s shown, if you have a serviceable QB, you can score on the Vikings. Just ask Goff, Stafford, or Kyler Murray. Since October 6, which is the seven game streak I speak of, those teams have combined for 15 scoring drives against the vaunted Vikings D.
While Kirk Cousins showed his worst last week, throwing 4 INT’s, the Falcons rank as a top 10 offense in yards per game. According to DVOA they are 13th overall, ranking as the 10th best rushing offense and 13th best passing team. And then there’s a little bit of motivation. We saw it with Jerry Jeudy on MNF. While Cousins wasn’t traded, like Jeudy, he wasn’t overly pursued by the Vikings in FA.
The Falcons are at a very low point in their season, and one in which the public sees a vulnerability. I’ll take the return of Kirk and I expect the Falcons to play one of their best games of the season this weekend in Minnesota.
CAROLINA PANTHERS +12.5 at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
The Eagles are coming off of one of the best wins in the 2024 NFL season as they shut down the #1 offense in Baltimore to come away with a 24-19 road victory against one of the AFC’s best. Now they return home, after a two-game road trip where they beat two winning teams, to face one of the worst teams in the NFL. And this is sandwiched between a huge Keystone state showdown next week against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
As for the Panthers, since Bryce Young took over in Week 8, Carolina has been much more competitive and that’s due in part to an uptick in their offensive output. In all, the Panthers have covered four straight winning two of those outright as underdogs.
I fear a lack of motivation in Philly this weekend. We saw it when Cleveland and Jacksonville visited the Linc, with both those teams covering big numbers. And the Eagles have a propensity to allow late garbage time offense, with their last three opponents scoring a TD in the 4th quarter with less than 70 seconds left on the clock. I could definitely see a letdown and backdoor cover here in Philly.
ARIZONA CARDINALS -2.5 vs SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
We backed the Seahawks two weeks ago in their matchup with Arizona. A critical pick-6 from Kyler Murray helped fuel that winning bet. And guess what, Seattle did it again last week as DT Leonard Williams returned an errant Aaron Rodgers pass 92 yards for a score. Take a step back even further, to Week 11, where the Seahawks pulled off a miraculous comeback in San Fran with a Geno Smith rushing TD with only 12 seconds left on the clock. To say it nicely, Seattle is playing with house money. And the house doesn’t lose that often.
On the other side, the Cardinals let one slip away last week in Minnesota. They kicked 5 FG’s and went 1 for 6 in the redzone. Similar to Seattle’s fluky takeaways that turned into scores, the Cardinals lack of production in the redzone is not sustainable (1 for their last 8). I like both these teams fortunes to turn this week as a Cardinals win will further muck-up the NFC West and make the division must watch TV down the stretch.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS -6.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS
The one public team I will back, for a 2nd straight week, is the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are still fuming from their loss in Cleveland two weeks ago. They have revenge on their minds. And as long as Winston is back there “Farve-ing” it, we have high volatility in this game. Meaning we could see a Browns win to a Pittsburgh blowout. I lean to the latter and look for the Steelers to keep up their winning ways this week at home. The other thing to consider, the Steelers were 3.5 to 4 point favorites in Cleveland two weeks ago. The spread is only a few points higher so I think we’re getting a discount here as a road to home flip usually costs 5 to 6 points.
BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): TBD
SURVIVOR PICK
MIAMI DOLPHINS
If you still have the Dolphins in your pool, this is the week to use them. The Jets have quit. Their QB stinks. The Defense is worse. And there’s no real relief in sight.
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