Dave Gloeckner 
Week 4 hung us with our first negative outcome of the season as surprising contenders, looking at you Minnesota and Washington, kept up their winning ways. Eventually, we will see regression with these teams but they have proven they are here to stay for the 2024 season. In the first weekend for byes, we look to a shorter slate to make our rebound and get back to, or over, 0.500. Looking at the Win Daily team, we have so many tools available to get your lineups set and bring home some big wins. You’ll see our NFL pre-lock show tomorrow and the projections and lineup optimizers are available for all our members.
As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday.
NFL BETS WEEK 5 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 7-9)
MIAMI DOLPHINS +1 at NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
I wasn’t sure if it could get any worse for Miami after they were dominated in Seattle in Week 3. The addition of Tyler Huntley gave hope that the so-called offensive mastermind would be able to flip the switch quickly and have the Dolphins clicking on all cylinders. But then Monday night happened and we saw an absolute embarrassment of a performance as Miami put up just 184 total yards against Tennessee and lost 31-12. While I have major question marks about the Fins coaching staff, they still have premium talent on offense and some big names defensively. So I’m hopeful that a beatdown on national TV will inspire a group of proud men to make the necessary changes, starting this week in New England.
The Dolphins also have some good news as they are supposedly getting back RB Raheem Mostert, OL Terron Armstead and DB Kendall Fuller for this game. And the Patriots recently lost the key to their offensive line as C David Andrews is out with a shoulder injury.
I expect the Dolphins to slow this thing down to a halt and attack with their running game now that they have Mostert healthy and he can shed some of the load. The Patriots are having significant issues at RB (Stevenson fumbling) and OL, which the Dolphins should take advantage of and create havoc on QB Jacoby Brissett. I’ll bank on an ugly game but one where Huntley pulls out some magic late and is able to lead the Dolphins to a GW FG.
LA RAMS +3.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS
Jordan Love made his return last week and almost brought the Packers back from 21 points down to beat the Vikings. He led the Pack on three touchdown scoring drives in the 4th quarter which gives hope that GB is back to the way they played last year when they made the Divisional Round of the NFC playoffs.
However, I’m backing the Rams today as they gear up to play just their 2nd home game of the season. Yes, the Rams are banged up especially at WR as Cooper Kupp will miss his 3rd straight game. But they still have Matthew Stafford and Kyren Williams, and Green Bay’s D has struggled this year ranking 19th in team defense DVOA and is allowing 23 points per game.
The main reason I’m backing LA is twofold. First, Green Bay has some dissention in the room as they have suspended WR Romeo Doubs for not showing up to practice this week. His omission from mandatory practice was due to him questioning his role in the offense. And secondly, when the Packers beat the Rams 20-3 last season, that marked the single lowest point total and yards gained in HC Sean McVay’s career. I’m sure he’s circled that and is chomping at the bit to ensure that doesn’t happen again. And as we speak, 71% of the bets and 80% of the money are backing the Pack setting this up for a big fade the public play.
CINCINATTI BENGALS +2.5 vs BALTIMORE RAVENS
Everyone saw the Ravens demolition of Buffalo on Sunday Night Football. It got so bad that Mitch Trubisky had to play a few series for the Bills as they threw up the white flag early in the 4th quarter. The most surprising part was Baltimore’s ability to run the ball as they gained an eye-opening 271 yards on the ground. We all know the Ravens are the best running team in the league, but to average 8.0 yards/carry against an NFL team for an entire game is impressive.
And those optics, are exactly why I like the Cincinatti Bengals today. The Bengals picked up their first win of the season last week in Carolina. The outcome was somewhat predictable, but the way they did it was surprising. The Bengals had their best rushing output of the season racking up 141 yards on the ground. RB Chase Brown broke out with 80 yards rushing and two TD’s. Being able to show a balanced offense will be a huge key to the Bengals getting back in the AFC North race.
Back to the optics, almost everyone will back the Ravens here as they have been on primetime in three of the four weeks to start the season. People have seen them almost beat KC, then dominate both Dallas and Buffalo. The eye test says the Ravens are great, and that’s what the public will back. We’re seeing 82% of the bets and 71% of the money on Baltimore.
And remember, the Bengals season ended at Baltimore last year when Joe Burrow went down with a wrist injury. Cincy had taken a 10-7 lead but learned quickly after a short TD throw that Burrow’s hand/wrist was severely injured. That spelled doom for that game and the rest of the season. Additionally, there is urgency with Cincinatti as falling to 1-4 could completely derail their season again. Getting to 2-3 and owning the tiebreaker against Baltimore would go a long way in getting back into the division race.
HOUSTON TEXANS -1 vs BUFFALO BILLS
It’s revenge day for someone today when the Bills travel to Houston to face the Texans. And I’m leaning on WR Stephon Diggs to have the last laugh. There has been much said about the relationship between QB Josh Allen and Diggs, and the two made a split this offseason as Diggs was shipped off to Houston. We’ve seen Allen perform admirably so far, with just 1 turnover in four games. But he is missing Diggs, as no Buffalo WR averages more than 57 yards receiving per game.
For Houston, last week’s comeback against Jacksonville was thrilling to say the least. But it did show another week of underwhelming results from the offense as they had only 17 points until the final drive. They are averaging just 19.9 points per game this season. But a win like that can be inspiring and I expect the offense to show some extra burst today as they have motivation and momentum on their side.
The public also backs Buffalo today with 69% of the bets coming in on the road team.
SURVIVOR PICK
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
The Gmen played tough against the Cowboys but managed just 5 FG’s. They struggle to score and that will be a factor today in the upper Northwest as the Seahawks are averaging 25.3 points per game..
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