Dave Gloeckner 
We had another solid outing by going 3-2 in our plays from last week’s article. The Monday Night Football game got us on the plus side as the Bengals used a fortunate bounce to cover the line as road favorites. The thought of Kirk’s revenge went sour, but the Panthers covering a big line and almost pulling off a stunner in Philly was our best play of the weekend. We’ve now dug ourselves out of the early season hole and got over the 0.500 mark. With four weeks left, and a recent string of 8 games over 0.500 in the last 6 weeks, we’ll look to keep the momentum going into this weekend’s big slate.
Of note, the dogs went 7-5-1 last week. Of the seven ATS covers, two were outright wins.
As for Survivor, most leagues have wrapped up but if you’re still alive then I’ll give my best play outside of Baltimore (16-point favorites). We won last week by backing the Dolphins. This week, I lean Philadelphia as a 5.5 point favorite. The Eagles had a lot of white noise going on this week but I think that’ll help them focus and knock off another AFC contender. Another team to consider is Minnesota as they are playing a Bears team that is looking like they are laying down for the rest of the season.
NFL BETS WEEK 15 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 35-34-1, game bets only)
DENVER BRONCOS -3.5 vs INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
Both teams are heading into this critical matchup coming off a bye week. They are both relatively healthy and fresh which will be key as this game is as close to a playoff game as any this weekend. With a win, the Broncos chances of being in the playoffs rises to 91%. But with a loss, they drop to 51%. On the flipside, the Colts have a 51% chance of reaching the playoffs with a win but drop to 6% with a loss.
I lean towards the Broncos in this matchup as they have been a team on the rise over the past two months. In their last 3 home games, they are 3-0 ATS and have an average win margin of 18.3 points per game. Alternatively, the Colts are 3-3 ATS on the road this season, and are 1-2 ATS in their past 3 road games. This includes two games they won by 1-point each against the hapless Jets and Patriots.
Additionally, I see a broad gap between the teams in DVOA. Denver is 5th overall defensively while Indianapolis is 16th. Offensively, it’s closer but Denver still has the edge at 20th overall vice Indy at 22nd overall. And Denver has played a much tougher schedule than the Colts. So, saddle up and say it together, Broncos Country “let’s ride”!
NEW YORK JETS -3.5 at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
I said two weeks ago that I’d never take the Jets again. Yet here we are and I’m breaking my promise. But really, the Jets are a favorite against anyone? Not only a favorite but a road favorite and one that is over the key number of three. I hate to say it, but this line tells me something. This is more of an indictment on the Jaguars, Doug Pederson and Mac Jones. So with that, I’ll keep this one short, J-E-T-S, JETS, JETS, JETS!
CAROLINA PANTHERS -2.5 vs DALLAS COWBOYS
The Panthers are favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. Say that with me again. The Carolina Panthers are favorites against the Dallas Cowboys. Imagine what this line was projected to be before the season started. Likely at least a touchdown favorite for Dallas. So it’s crazy how the tides have turned and we’re now on the opposite side of the seesaw.
But this line speaks volumes. The Panthers have been playing better football since reinserting QB Bryce Young into the starting role. They’ve covered five straight games including two against top teams in the league such as Philly and KC. As for Dallas, they let a game slip on MNF which virtually takes away their (slim) possibility of making the playoffs. They’ll likely not be as up as they could have been if they won last week. While the Panthers are playing inspired football. Give me Carolina in what would be an upset on paper but not in Vegas.
CLEVELAND BROWNS +5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
The Chiefs keep winning games that they clearly shouldn’t. And while that is good for their record, they have been a losing team in Vegas all year. Kansas City posts a 12-1 record SU but is 4-9 ATS including six straight losses to the number.
The Browns are a roller coaster mainly because their QB plays with such a reckless abandon. But since Jameis took over the reigns from Deshaun Watson, the Browns are 2-1 ATS at home including two outright wins as an underdog against Pittsburgh and Baltimore.
BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): Green Bay Packers -3 (Sunday Night Football)
SURVIVOR PICK
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Bears are a mess. They can’t block anyone and their QB holds onto the ball forever. Not a good recipe against Minnesota who are 4th in the NFL with 40 sacks.
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