Dave Gloeckner 
Happy New Years to the Win Daily family! I’m very much looking forward to the 2025 year with all of you as we continue to push out information to help us all “Win”. As we enter the final week of the regular season, I’m in need of a positive one to stay on the plus side of the marker for the season. What is unfortunate is there are not many games on the slate that have playoff meaning. But we still have some angles to attack including understanding motivation, bonuses, draft positioning, and backup player talent. We’ll start with the prime-time game on Saturday night and take it to Sunday’s thriller in Detroit to determine the #1 seed in the NFC.
NFL BETS WEEK 18 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 45-45-1, game bets only)
PITTSBURGH STEELERS +2.5 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS (SATURDAY 830PM)
The Steelers have experienced a rough taste of reality over the past three weeks. They were blown out by three of the best teams in the NFL in the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs. All along, the Steelers weren’t truly a viable 10-3 team. They lack offensive firepower, and their defense has significant holes, especially in the back end as both Kansas City and Philadelphia torched the Steelers through the air. But there’s one thing that Mike Tomlin is, and that’s the ultimate underdog. He is 21-7-3 as a home underdog in his career, including two outright wins this season (Baltimore and NY Jets). And coming off a terrible three game stretch, combined with the home underdog status to an 8-8 team, should be enough motivation to get the troops fired up.
Additionally, as much as Cincy has everything to play for, their defense is still an issue. The Steelers scored 44 on the Bengals back in early December. Since week 1, every team has scored at least 20 points on the Bengals minus the Giants (31st in points per game) and Browns (32nd in points per game). Then there’s the kicking concern which reared it’s ugly head again last week when Cade York missed a short game-winning FG attempt. On the other side, Pittsburgh has one of the best in the game who rarely misses in his home stadium. Finally, over 63% of the bets and money is pouring in on Cincy as their offense and playoffs hopes attract public attention.
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS +6.5 vs LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
The Chargers have everything to play for while the Raiders have everything to lose for. In LA, a win by the Chargers will lock them into the #5 seed and send them to Houston next weekend for a playoff meeting with the Texans. A loss would push them 1000+ miles more east to Baltimore. The much more preferable option is obviously the Texans who have limped to the AFC South title this season despite having a negative point differential (-9).
But I’m going to back the feisty Raiders in this one. While a loss would put them in the conversation for a top-5 pick, that doesn’t seem to be something that is on HC Antonio Pierce’s mind. The Raiders have won their last two games following a 10-game losing streak. The reinsertion of QB Aiden O’Connell has sparked that mini win streak. However, it’s also clear the Raiders aren’t willing to lay down for their coach and will play hard until the end. And if this is in fact Pierce’s last game, I’m certain he will do his best to win it to improve his resume.
While the Chargers have looked impressive in the past two weeks, I could also see them getting out to a lead and then benching people thus opening a back-door situation. Playing in Houston likely means an early Saturday game so getting some guys out early might be in the back of Harbaugh’s mind if he feels he has the game in hand.
Lastly, 19% of the bets and 7% of the money is coming in on Vegas. That is the lowest on the board today and feels like this is a spot where the real Vegas could cash in big.
CHICAGO BEARS +9.5 at GREEN BAY PACKERS
The Packers have won 11 straight games against their rivals from the south. It is the longest current winning streak that one team has over another in the NFL. And wouldn’t it be so Chicago if they snapped that streak today? It’s obviously a meaningless game for the Bears and one they should lose to improve their draft stock. With a win they would likely drop outside of the top 5.
On the other hand, Green Bay is already resting several defensive players. They can only improve their positioning in the NFC with a win if the Commanders lose. Otherwise, Green Bay is off to Philadelphia for the first round of the playoffs. There will likely be scoreboard watching in Lambeau and that will determine the fate of their star players like Josh Jacobs, Jordan Love and others. I see the Bears playing this one for momentum and pride, as in not to lose their 12th in a row to Green Bay. Give me Da Bears in a game they should play to do what they know best, lose. But will do what Da Bears do best, which is the opposite of what their fans want.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS +3 at DETROIT LIONS
I love both teams as they’ve embattled injuries and played hard, solid football all season. Minnesota incurred an injury to their presumed starting QB, JJ McCarthy, in the preseason. And all they did was hand the keys to Sam Darnold and watch him drive this team to a top 10 offense in scoring and passing. Detroit has had to overcome significant injuries to both fronts, including their defensive star Aiden Hutchinson and heart-and-soul RB David Montgomery. But yet, they keep winning, and doing it in style.
But ultimately, I’m taking the healthier team tomorrow night in the battle for the #1 seed in the NFC. The 49ers, who have been in shambles for weeks, put up 475 yards of offense against the Lions last Monday Night. That included 400 yards of passing. We just stated how Minnesota has a top 5 passing offense which means we have a major issue for the Lions. If it wasn’t for two Brock Purdy INT’s, the Lions likely wouldn’t have held on last week.
And Minnesota has the top rush defense in the league which will give Detroit some issues in their offensive attack. I see the Vikings getting just enough stops, and scoring enough points, to win the biggest game of the weekend and get the much desired 1st round bye.
BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): NEW YORK JETS -1.5. Say goodbye to Aaron Rodgers for good! We will all be better off for it. But in classic Rodgers fashion, he’ll leave with a win and tell you how close they were this year and how good he is.
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