We have an awesome day of football ahead of us on this last Saturday before Christmas. First, if last night’s inaugural College Football Playoff Game taught us anything, the atmosphere for the playoff games is second to none. And the pressure is definitely ramped up as we saw an Indiana team look completely overwhelmed by the moment.

As for the NFL, we have two tremendous games for our Saturday viewing pleasure as AFC heavyweights meet to determine playoff positioning.

So we’ll cover it all here and hope you can sit back and enjoy what is the most exciting day of football that we’ve seen in quite some time.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFFS

SMU MUSTANGS +9 at PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (12pm EST)

There are several teams in this year’s playoffs that have benefited from their schedule. Obviously, Indiana was one and showed the world their metrics were weighted thanks to their weak opponents. And prior to the Big 10 title game, the same could be said of Penn State whose out of conference schedule consisted of West Virginia, Bowling Green and Kent State. In fact, they played two ranked opponents in the regular season, with both happening at home, and they were 1-1. Overall, Penn State ended with the 30th ranked SOS (strength of schedule).

On the other hand, SMU’s resume looks even worse. They played no teams in the top 15 this season. Their toughest game was the ACC Championship game, which they lost to Clemson. Only other ranked teams they played were Louisville and Pittsburgh, who were no higher than #18 in the polls. The Mustangs schedule was ranked 60th overall.

But the reason I’m backing the Mustangs today is twofold. First, Penn State under HC James Franklin does not perform well in high pressure situations. The Nittany Lions are 13-27 against ranked teams in Franklin’s 11 seasons as coach. They are 3-17 against top-10 teams.

But my second reason is the matchup. SMU allows just 93.4 yards rushing per game. That is 5th best in the nation. Penn State relies on the running game to open up their passing. The Lions average 202. yards per game rushing, good for 18th best in the nation. Additionally, SMU is a top 10 scoring offense and top 25 yardage offense. Penn State has played two teams ranked in the top 25 in total yardage, USC and Oregon, and they allowed a combined 75 points to those two teams. I think SMU has a strong front that can slow down Penn State and a good enough offense to stay in this game for all four quarters.

TEXAS LONGHORNS -12 vs CLEMSON TIGERS (4pm EST)

Watching Texas, they may have the most talented roster in College Football. Their issue is finishing drives and making mistakes at crucial times. They were the better team in the SEC Championship, but didn’t put Georgia away early as they settled for FG’s instead of converting them into TD’s. The Longhorns have the best defense in this playoffs and that will show today against Clemson.

The Tigers were fortunate to get into the show. It took some luck, as Syracuse knocked off Miami after being down 21 points to allow Clemson to play in the ACC Championship game. Then there’s the 57-yard FG to win the ACC. They’ll need more than luck today in Texas as they are playing a team that went toe-to-toe with everyone, including Georgia. Does anyone remember what Georgia did to Clemson earlier this year? Yeah, it was 34-3 with Clemson gaining just 188 total yards.

I know Texas got somewhat lucky with their schedule in the SEC. But they are a very good team who just loss a game they felt they should have won. I think they’ll put their best foot forward today and take out their frustrations on Clemson.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES -7 vs TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (8pm EST)

There is no bigger spotlight in college football than the one pointing directly at Ohio State HC Ryan Day. After a fourth straight loss to rival Michigan, the Buckeyes leader is coaching for his life. And that’s rightfully so as he has failed to bring home the hardware, or beat their hated rival, with arguably the most talented team in the nation.

That pressure can break you or make you stronger. And for one night, I like the latter. Tennessee has a great running game but they struggle in the passing game. Ohio State was pushed around on the ground by Michigan, and many will point to that as reason to give the Volunteer’s hope. But I chalk that up to being 3 touchdown favorites and not taking their opponent seriously (which is obviously a mistake and coaching issue). That will change tonight in the big spotlight shining on the horseshoe. The Buckeyes will step up and force Tennessee to throw which will create turnovers and allow Will Smith to operate on a short field. I’m buying the Buckeyes and will back them in the biggest game of Ryan Day’s career.

NFL SATURDAY

HOUSTON TEXANS +3.5 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (1pm EST)

The Texans have been underwhelming this year, but have clinched the AFC South with a 9-5 record after 14 weeks. By clinching their spot in the postseason, they can now focus on setting up a run to New Orleans. And that starts today as they travel to the two-time defending Super Bowl Champs in Kansas City. I like the Texans to play one of their best games, specifically on defense, and keep this game close throughout. Houston allows the 4th least yards per game and 9th lowest points per game in the NFL. And KC is just 13th in points per game at 23.5. And the injury to Patrick Mahomes is a concern as the Texans rush the QB at a high rate as they rank 2nd in the NFL with 45 team sacks.

PITTSBURGH STEELERS +6.5 at BALTIMORE RAVENS (430pm EST)

This is a classic Mike Tomlin spot. Coming off an embarrassing defeat in Philadelphia, the Steelers are looking left for dead. No George Pickens and potentially no TJ Watt. But as a dog, Mike Tomlin thrives. He is 44-29-1 against the spread as a road underdog. Better yet, the Steelers have won 7 of the past 8 games against their bitter rivals. This is just too big of a number in one of the best division rivalries in the league.

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