Jason Mezrahi 
I will keep this short and sweet. If you have been following my run in Discord for the past 3 months of NFL and NBA prop betting you would have your next 10 years of membership paid in full. If you haven’t followed along there is no better time than the Super Bowl
The place I start my research process daily is reviewing the entire NFL Player Prop Model here. I will publish this after locking my first bet for the Super Bowl and will be adding more each day until we make it to kickoff.
Christian McCaffrey over 33.5 Receiving Yards -110 FanDuel
Christian McCaffrey is very good at football. Whether running or catching passes he is once again very good at football. No matter the game script CMC must be involved to either play catchup or to close out the game. No lead will be safe against the Chiefs and I can easily see the the 49ers playing from behind. His reception prop is juiced heavily to the over of 4.5 when I’m writing this and it can easily pop to 5.5 by game time. If CMC gets 5-6 catches I think one of them goes for 20+ while the other 4-5 clears the prop easily. I road this last week as my biggest bet and will be locking at minimum of 1 unit on it.
Isiah Pacheco over 65.5 Rushing Yards -110 FanDuel
Pacheco has gone over this number in 4 of the last 6 games and we just saw what Aaron Jones, Jahmyr Gibbs, and David Montgomery did to this 49ers defense. This is not the same fearful niners defense we faded in daily fantasy. The Chiefs will try to slow down this game and lean on Pacheco to relieve some pressure off Mahomes and the passing game. I laid 1 unit on Pacheco as soon as the market opened and wouldn’t be surprised that this number is 70+ soon.
Brock Purdy under 32.5 Passing Attempts -110 PointsBet
Mr. Purdy is going to be talked about a lot leading up the Super Bowl and this will be a career defining moment for the kid early in his career. I am not a Purdy hater but I love crunching numbers. Purdy has gone over this number only 2 times this year and if the 49ers get out to a lead it will be almost impossible for Shanahan to keep chucking the ball when he has CMC in the backfield. On top of all the numbers the Chiefs will try to slow down the pace just like they did in Baltimore. Putting 1 unit on Purdy under 32.5 attempts and would be shocked if this doesn’t close at 29.5 or 30.5 by Sunday.
Elijah Mitchell over 1.5 Rushing Attempts +110 DraftKings
Elijah Mitchell will have to spell CMC sometime through this game as I see this as a big workload for CMC type of night. Also if the books are right and the 49ers win the fourth quarter may be filled with runs. One other factor that plays in and I don’t even want to say it but I will, god forbid any type of injury and this becomes the lock of all locks. You can’t predict injuries but I have seen plenty of rubbing of CMC on the sidelines. Don’t get upset when you see Deebo getting some touches, just be patient and lock this in for 1 unit.
Big Money Novelty Props –
No explanation needed, but I have my reasoning for sprinkling a couple coins on each of the ones below. Suggested unit sizes are listed on the Bet Tracker page here.
- Patrick Mahomes 25 Rushing Yards in each half +2400 FanDuel
- Christian McCaffrey + Isiah Pacheco 250+ Rush Yards +1300 FanDuel
- Travis Kelce + George Kittle 20+ receptions +1500 FanDuel
- 60+ Field Goal scored +3500 FanDuel
- First RB to reach 40+ Receiving Yards Isiah Pacheco +600 FanDuel
- Patrick Mahomes 60+ Rushing Yards +850 DraftKings
- Isiah Pacheco 120+ rushing yards +900 DraftKings
- Christian McCaffrey 40+ Receiving Yards +130 DraftKings
- Christian McCaffrey 50+ Receiving Yards +220 DraftKings
- Christian McCaffrey 80+ Receiving Yards +900 DraftKings
- Player with longest reception Christian McCaffrey +2000 DraftKings
- Any Quarterback to throw for 350+ +350 Caesars
- Isiah Pacheco Most Receiving yards of game +19000 FanDuel
- Christian McCaffrey Most Receiving yards of game +2400 FanDuel
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