Adam Strangis NBA Sunday 1/17 Core Four
We have another four game slate tonight, so playing cash games is pretty tough. There’s not a ton of value that is obvious as of now, but that can change pretty quickly as we know. The biggest news as of now remains that Joel Embiid is out for the Sixers, so we have at least one team that will be a little short-handed. Let’s get into the NBA Sunday 1/17 Core Four plays so we can start figuring out what pathways we need to take tonight for the green screens!
Core Four
Nikola Jokic ($11,200 DK/$11,500 FD) – Oh buddy, does it shape up to be a Nikola Jokic day. While Rudy Gobert is (pretty much rightfully) widely considered a great defender, he can struggle with certain players. Joker is one of them with a bullet point. Over the last six games these two big men have faced off, Joker has a 60, 79, 54 and 69 DK point games in four of them. There was one bump in the road where he fouled out in 16 minutes, but I’m not letting that deter me in the least.
Here’s what is really interesting. The Jazz actually give up the most points per possession on post ups at 1.12. However, they only defend it at the eighth-lowest frequency because Gobert is in the paint. Most teams don’t go after it. Well, Jokic is ninth in the NBA in post up frequency and second in field goal attempts per game. Joker also is ninth among starting players in “and one” frequency on post ups. Not only does that mean some chances at free throws, but if Gobert gets into foul trouble it’s all over down low for Utah. Gobert has proven he has issues with Big Honey on multiple occasions Jokic is rocking a 1.63 FPPM on just a 28.4% usage rate. The metrics really support the Denver stud tonight to anchor our lineups.
Zion Williamson ($8,100 DK/$7,700) – The second-year player has been…disappointing? Not quite what we thought? There’s nothing that is a massive reason as to why he’s sitting under 40 fantasy points per game, but one issue is the pace the Pelicans play. Sitting 26th in pace doesn’t exactly seem to suit this team in my eyes, but maybe the learning curve is too steep right now. All this sounds like a poor argument to play him, until we look at the spot he has – playing the Sacramento Kings.
Sac-Town doesn’t believe in defense since they sit dead last in points given up and the eighth-fastest pace in the league. They are also 18th in rebounding and both Marvin Bagley and Hassan Whiteside are questionable. Zion should be able to kill them on the glass regardless and the high pace is exactly where Zion excels.
He’s been sitting right abut in the 5x range lately, but the pace can easily push him towards 6x and higher. Lonzo Ball is out for a bit, and in a 130 minute sample Zion is rocking a 30% usage and just a 1.08 FPPM. It’s just a matter of time before the FPPM catches up with that massive usage, higher than even Brandon Ingram in the sample size. Zion is sitting at about a 4.5% lower true shooting rate, while the Kings allow the eighth-highest FGA from within five feet and the fifth-highest percentage from that range. This has the makings of a ceiling game for Zion.
Update – Everything I said about Zion still stands, but on DK I believe that Damontas Sabonis becomes priority. Myles Turner is out, and the Pacers are fairly short-handed with no Turner, Oladipo and TJ Warren. In 85 minutes this year without that trio, Sabonis sports a 30% usage rate and a 1.42 FPPM. I will try to make the effort to get both Zion and Sabonis on FD, but it’s really not possible on DK.
Jordan Clarkson ($6,300 DK/$5,200 FD) – Still far too cheap on FD and more than palatable on DK, I’m looking for a runback option for Joker. Clarkson fits the bill, as he has put up 41 and 31 DK in the two games Joe Ingles has missed. He’s also taken a total of 31 shots in those two games, only four behind Donovan Mitchell for the team lead. Clarkson is here to chuck and be the scoring punch off the bench, and he’ll do that again tonight.
Not only did he take 31 total shots, 21 came from beyond the arc. His shot can come and go, but Denver sports the fourth-highest field goal percentage from three in the association. If he gets hot in this one, I don’t think 50 DK is out of the question at all. The Jazz staggered him away from Mitchell for about 12 minutes last game, giving him a full quarter worth of time to be the primary trigger man in the offense. The $6,300 on DK seems scary at first, but for GPP settings he’s the perfect mix of role and potential we’d want.
Isaiah Roby ($4,200 DK/$4,200 FD) – Some folks may be sour on Roby because he fouled out last game, but he still hit right about 6x. The price barely moved on DK and in his three starts he’s hit at least 24 DK in each game. If you’re telling me that’s the floor when a player starts, I’d take it at $4,200 every time. The big factor that gives him a bump is Embiid is out for Philly. He’s fourth in free throw attempts per game, so not having to deal with that is a bonus for Roby. He has a perfectly acceptable 0.99 FPPM with Al Horford off the floor. The price works, he matchup is better than normal and we need some salary savings at some point.
With the Sixers game postponed, Nickeil Alexander-Walker takes over this spot as the value that makes the most sense to me. I will stress to backload the lineups on DK! We have some moving pieces in the two later games, so decide on your Denver/Utah pieces and give yourself the best flexibility possible!
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