Adam Strangis NBA Monday 1/18 Core Four
I promise we will get back to the cash format when we’re able, but today we have split slates that are four games or fewer. As of now, FanDuel doesn’t even have an early slate like DK does (that one is three games) and both sites have a four game evening slate. We’ll do a core four for the Early on DK, then hit the Late slate as well for both sites. We’ve got quite a bit in front of us to sort through in the NBA Monday 1/18 Core Four so let’s get to work and figure it out!
Core Four DK Early
Damian Lillard ($9,900) – He’s likely to be the highest-rostered player on the slate and I don’t really care. With C.J. McCollum out for an unknown period and missing Jusuf Nurkic, the Blazers really live and die with Dame now. Without McCollum, he has a 31% usage rate and a 1.39 FPPM. The Spurs are within 0.2% of leading the league in three point field goal percentage allowed which is not what you want to see when Lillard is coming to town. I honestly expect the usage and FPPM to go up now that he knows he has to carry the team to an even higher extent. The Spurs are 11th in pace and mid-pack in points allowed, a solid spot to attack.
Enes Kanter ($6,300) – I made a calculated fade of Kanter last slate and got housed for it. Not today my friends! Kanter can’t defend, a big reason he’s been on multiple teams and he doesn’t always get minutes. Well, Portland A. doesn’t have a choice but to play him 28-30 minutes and B. don’t play defense anyways. Even on a 17.9% usage, Kanter has produced a 1.32 FPPM and we saw the ceiling the last game. With LaMarcus Aldridge down low, they need some size and Kanter should be slated for at least 25 minutes ago. Kanter already has 6.5 paint touches per game (and going up) and are dead last in rebounding in the paint.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,400) – Oh, did you think I didn’t want to attack Enes Kanter defense? This is a PRIME spot for LMA, who I normally am not that excited for. Today is a different story because the play type that Kanter has been destroyed on for years now is the pick and roll. Let’s take a look and see who is the roll man in that play type in the league…well, look at that. It’s Aldridge at a 39% frequency. I do have to admit that he’s only shooting 38.6% on these plays, but we can bet that Kanter is going to help that go up today. I’m typically not on Spurs when everyone is active, but LMA has a 24.3% usage and just a 0.93 FPPM right now. The main culprit is a 47.9% true shooting rate, which isn’t sustainable.
Trae Young ($9,400) – I know, the Core is expensive and only leaves us $4,500 per player. Minnesota will be short-handed to a big extent, so we have a lot of value coming from that side. Pay attention to Ghost’s model (duh, that shouldn’t need said) to fill things out. Young is in another smash spot here with no KAT down low to help defend. He drives at the fifth-highest rate and even though KAT is not a good defender, him not being there still makes it easier. The Wolves are sixth in pace and fourth-worst in points allowed and these are the game we target with a player like Trae. The 31.4% usage speaks so much to having a 1.20 FPPM and I can’t fathom a 47.1% true shooting rate hanging around. He’s at a 56.5% rate for his career, and this is a good spot to start getting right. He just went for 50 DK on a 7-23 shooting night.
Main Slate Core
We’re going to hold off on declaring exactly who the Core for the evening is quite yet. There’s a lot of news that we need, headlined by Kyrie Irving. He may or may not play, which is massive for the Nets. If he doesn’t play, we can turn to Kevin Durant or James Harden, and my lean is Harden. If Kyrie plays, I’m likely to fade those three Nets since we don’t know how it works yet and nobody is cheap.
The second factor is Victor Oladipo. He’s expected to be active for the Rockets and is likely to be a lock on FD with John Wall still out. However, he’s not even in the player pool on DK. So we can’t play Dipo himself and that hurts some of the value. These are massive pieces to the day and we need some clarity before we can get there. Be sure to check back for the NBA Monday 1/18 Core Four!
*UPDATE*
James Harden ($10,800 DK/$10,300 FD) – It is very difficult to choose studs tonight. However, Harden checks in as one of my top choices. I had a (not exactly risky) suspicion that he would lose his attitude when he got out of Houston. Not only did he drop the attitude, but he dropped about 40 pounds overnight if pictures are to be believed. The Beard also dropped a triple-double teaming up with Kevin Durant. You need one of those guys in the lineup tonight in my eyes with no Kyrie still and Harden is a lock on FD at one of the lowest prices you’ll get.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,400 DK/$11,300 FD) – I talked in Discord earlier today that Greek hasn’t had the ceiling that we’re accustomed to. This has to be that spot. Brooklyn does not have anything in the paint that can deter him and he drives 10.4 times per game. He’s also averaging only 4.8 paint touches per game so far this year, down from 6.0 last year. When Brian and Ghost are in lock step on a player, we should pay attention. I also blame them if he has a floor game (I kid, I kid). He’s too cheap on DK and reasonable on FD as well.
James Johnson ($5,000 DK/$4,700 FD) – Kristaps Porzingis is expected to play, but I think it would be negligent to have him log another 30+ minutes as he works his way back from injury. The Mavericks are short-handed as is, and if Tim Hardaway is out on top of everything else….yikes. Dallas could be down to nine players plus KP. Whether they have a gimpy THJ or not, Johnson should see 25+ minutes here and he typically racks up at least 3-5 steals and blocks on top of his other production. We also need to be interested in players like Jalen Brunson and Trey Burke pending Mavericks news. The good news is they’re the first game on the slate.
DeAndre Jordan ($4,800 DK/$4,500 FD) – This might not jump out as the best spot for Jordan. After all, Milwaukee is first in paint points allowed and 10th in paint rebounds. However, Jordan is the only viable center. The Nets absolutely need him on the floor as much as he can handle tonight against Greek and Brook Lopez. It helps a little bit that BroLo is not the typical rebounding center either. The model digs him on both sites and on FD, there’s really no a lot of options. Let’s kill two birds with one stone and hope for a repeat of the performance against the Knicks.
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