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NBA GPP Picks Breakdown
Sheesh! What a crazy night of NBA news it was yesterday, at one point we had no idea what was going on in Philly. We were able to sort through the news and saw my Dad take down a single entry GPP for $5,000 on DraftKings. That gets me excited to break down this five-game slate of NBA GPP Picks on Sunday but before we do, make sure you are checking out our Win Daily Sports Super Bowl promo that gives you 55% off your first month at Win Daily and all our premium DFS content!
We have key news to watch already as Russell Westbrook, Trae Young, and Dejounte Murray are all questionable coming into today. When we have NBA slates like tonight or last night the best place to be is in the Discord Chat rooms. That is where myself and all Win Daily staff break the latest news and give our updated selections. For this article I will be using DraftKings pricing. I will select two players from each position that I believe have potential for high upside on this given slate.
Point Guard
Aaron Gordon – ($7,400)
Gordon now has three straight games with over 36 minutes and 40 fantasy points. In all three games Gordon has flirted with a triple double. Charlotte has allowed the seventh most fantasy points to small forwards. The offense is flowing through Gordon and good things happen when the ball is in his hands. The peripheral stats he has been accumulating recently is tough to ignore as he did record a triple double. I will have shares of Gordon due to upside he possesses to break a slate.
Kemba Walker – ($6,300)
Boston has been easing Kemba back into action slowly, but last outing he saw 29 minutes. The restriction should be lifted if not very relaxed here and we could get over 30 minutes of Kemba. Walker has started his season averaging a usage rate of 35% which currently leads the Celtics. With Tatum already ruled out, Kemba will keep his massive usage rate for another game. The price seems too cheap as he scored over 30 fantasy points in his last two games and both saw him log less than 30 minutes. Kemba should be freed of his restrictions and it’s time to roll him out.
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal – ($10,200)
Washington will be a prime to target for DFS value tonight as they will be supremely short handed across the board and Beal will be the biggest beneficiary. If Westbrook is out the amount of shot attempts Beal could take is almost infinite. I’m joking obviously, but before their postponements Beal was averaging nearly 29 shot attempts per game in the Wizards last three games. Beal could surpass that in this game if given the minutes. Dejounte Murray is questionable for the Spurs and I like the chances of this game staying closer if he is out. There is so many people out for Washington that I couldn’t get a usage calculation due to lack of minutes. We can expect a fast-paced game as the Spurs are the tenth fastest team this NBA season. A massive usage is expected here for Beal if Westbrook is out, and if this game stays close Beal will likely be the reason.
Alec Burks – ($4,800)
Tonight will mark Burks third game back from his extended absence. His minutes haven’t been an issue in his return as he played at least 27 minutes in both of his games back. Last game we saw Burks record a 25% usage rate, but his shot didn’t fall. He went 3-14 in a good matchup against the Kings. A chance to rebound here though as Portland has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. Portland also ranks third worst in the league in terms of defensive efficiency. A great matchup here against a banged up Portland team.
Small Forward
Rodney Hood – ($3,800)
This isn’t an amazing matchup for Hood but this should be a good spot for Hood to hit value at a weaker small forward position. Hood’s price has stayed under $4,000 which provides a safe floor. Hood played 25 minutes and scored 28 fantasy points in the one start for McCollum. Maybe the most noteworthy stat was he carried a 30.1% usage rate in that game. This price is just too cheap for Hood if he is going to see that kind of usage.
Isaac Bonga – ($3,300)
Due to the limited forwards available for Washington, Bonga will be forced into action. In the three games this season that Bonga has seen at least 17 minutes he has produced at least 15.75 fantasy points. San Antonio is allowing the fifth most fantasy points to small forwards as well. Bonga knows the system unlike the newcomers and should get as many minutes as he can handle here. Another good cheap option from the Wizards would be Garrison Matthews at $3,400 but he is only shooting guard eligible.
Power Forward
Julius Randle – ($9,200)
Portland has struggled defensively ranking the third worst team in defensive rating. Randle should see a good individual matchup as Portland’s power forwards are much smaller than Julius. His team high usage rate of 27% should allow the big man to bully Portland in the paint. Minutes are rarely an issue with Julius as he logged at least 36 minutes in five of his last six games. At this price Randle has been as consistent as it gets scoring at least 45 fantasy points in ten of his last eleven appearances. Randle should keep that streak going here in this solid spot against the Blazers.
Demar DeRozan – ($7,600)
I like DeRozan in this spot regardless of Dejounte Murray’s status. DeRozan does benefit greatly when Murray is off the floor though as he sees a usage increase of 4.5% That brings his usage rate to 29.2% and his fantasy points per minute to 1.22. An amazing matchup against Washington should benefit him even more. The Wizards rank second worst in defensive rating and have played at the fastest pace this season. Derozan has shown 50+ point upside several times this season and I think we could see it again against this fast paced team. Last game was essentially without Murray and DeRozan scored 47 fantasy points so look for a repeat performance tonight.
Center
Clint Capela – ($8,500)
Man has Capela been dominating or what? He has scored at least 54 fantasy points in four straight games now. He played at least 37 minutes in three of those games and the game he fell short of that was a major blowout. A usage rate of around 23% in his last four games is an uptick from his season average. A matchup with the seventh fastest team in the NBA shouldn’t hurt Capela as he recently demolished the Wolves and they rank sixth quickest. The Wolves defense is not comparable to the Bucks however and this should be a slightly tougher matchup. Regardless of that its tough to ignore what he has been doing and another fast-paced matchup is looming here so feel free to roll him tonight.
LaMarcus Aldridge – ($6,000)
My Spurs plays are based upon Dejounte Murray being out because I believe he will be. With Murray out another player that benefits would be LMA. He sees a usage increase of 3.4% bringing his usage to 28%. With Murray off the floor his fantasy points per minute have been 1.11. LMA is facing the fastest team in the NBA this season and that should allow for a few extra rebounds. Aldridge just showed his upside without Murray last game as he accumulated 43.75 fantasy points. Another 40-point game shouldn’t be out of the question here against a terrible Wizards defense.
Knicks vs Blazers
Julius Randle – 11.5 rebounds – More – He plays more than enough minutes to eclipse this number due to Thibs tight rotation. He has also eclipsed this number in four straight games. A pace up spot against Portland should benefit Randle as well.
Damian Lillard – 7.5 assists – More – With McCollum ruled out for an extended perioud of time Lillard should have the ball in his hands plenty. Lillard has average 6.7 assists per game this season and that’s with McCollum. I feel like this number is too low given the massive usage for Dame without his back court partner.
Closing NBA GPP Picks 1/24
Thanks for reading my article NBA GPP Picks 1/24. This is looking like it could be another crazy slate and it is just five games. We have star players listed questionable heading into the day and we already had value with Washington. It is shaping up to be another stars and scrubs night as we already have some value and have the potential for more to open up. Keeping up on the value and news is very important. A good way to keep up is either in the Discord Chat rooms or checking out our NBA projection Models. If you’re going to be busy enjoying NFL Championship Sunday this may not be a good slate to join. Have a great Sunday everyone and good luck!
