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NBA GPP Picks 1/30
Welcome back to another edition of NBA GPP Picks 1/30 for tonight’s eight games slate. Another 7 PM CST lock time should allow us to gather all the injury news we need. This evening’s main players to watch are Lebron, Anthony Davis, Tyler Herro, and Jimmy Butler as they all come into today with a questionable tag. I would guess that both Lakers superstars play tonight.
A game to have exposure to will be Portland at Chicago due to the huge total of 232 in Vegas. In this article today I will be referring to DraftKings pricing where Giannis is the highest salary at $10,800. Based upon my research I will select two players from each position that intrigue me the most. Anything can happen with NBA slates now days so be sure to keep a close eye on news throughout the day. With that said let’s break down tonight’s juicy eight game NBA slate
Point Guard
Ja Morant – ($7,100)
With Valanciunas out I wanted to run the numbers and see if it affected Morant much. With JVAL off the floor Morant has averaged 1.42 fantasy points per minute and a 31% usage rate to add to it. It is a small sample size but It shows upside. The Spurs play at the ninth fastest pace and has given up the ninth most fantasy points to point guards this season. An average matchup here but Morant has played in four full games and scored at least 41.5 fantasy points in three of those. I think this price is too cheap and you can definitely do worse than this matchup.
John Wall – ($6,800)
Houston has been slowly working Wall back and last game he received 30 minutes on the court. His restriction should be light if not lifted here. Wall comes into tonight the cheapest he has been on DraftKings all season. As Wall has gotten more minutes his usage has increased as he sported a near 30% usage rate last game which led the team. He draws a good positional matchup as well with the Pelicans allowing the fourth most fantasy points to point guards this season. Wall has scored 35 fantasy points in his previous two games in which he was limited. With another minute’s increase expected over 40 fantasy points is a good bet here for Wall.
Anfernee Simons – ($4,400)
Simons is a sneaky little value here I think with McCollum, Jones Jr, and Nurkic already ruled out. Robert Covington is still questionable with a concussion as well so plenty of minutes possibly up for grabs here. With the three above off the floor Simons sees an impressive usage bump of 3.7% bringing his usage to 25.7%. He is recording .98 fantasy points per minute with them off the floor this season as well. Simons minutes are trending in the right direction and its possible we lose another Blazer in this spot. This matchup is fantastic as Chicago ranks second fastest and has given up the second most fantasy points to point guards. I put a third point guard because I don’t love small forward today and I could use this to mention Gary Trent. He is intriguing as well but Simons had better numbers in my opinion and is cheaper.
Shooting Guard
Zach Lavine – ($8,800)
Portland has been struggling defensively especially without several starters including defensive player Derrick Jones Jr. Portland has given up the sixth most fantasy points to shooting guards and have dropped to third worst in the league in defensive rating. When Markkanen came back it initially hurt Lavine’s usage, but had back-to-back games with 33% usage or more now. This is going to be a fast-paced game with minimal defense that I want to get pieces of. Grabbing Chicago’s usage leader in a good positional matchup looks to be a fine play.
Tyler Herro – ($7,200)
He comes into tonight questionable but I do think he plays. He returned from injury his previous game to play 32 minutes and accumulate 41.5 fantasy points. Goran Dragic has already been ruled out for Miami. If Butler is out again Herro is intriguing as his usage increases by 3.7%, which brings him to the team lead at 28.5%. He draws a great matchup against Sacramento who ranks dead last in defensive rating and play at the tenth fastest pace. If Herro plays his minutes shouldn’t be limited unless we hear otherwise as he did just play 32 minutes in his return.
Small Forward
Gordon Hayward – ($7,300)
In six straight games Hayward has seen at least 37 minutes of playing time which is almost as safe as it comes. His usage leads the team and so do his minutes. Milwaukee is a solid matchup as they have given up the third most fantasy points to power forwards and has been the seventh fastest team this season. This price is around the lowest that Hayward has been this season. Two straight subpar performances should keep Haywards ownership low for this slate.
Power Forward
LaMarcus Aldridge – ($5,400)
Due to a tough defensive task in Jokic the Spurs had to look elsewhere than Aldridge. Poeltl saw a big chunk of minutes to defend Jokic last night and that led to Aldridge to see just 22 minutes. This is strictly a GPP play because LMA does have fluciating minutes as we saw last night. I like that Valanciunas will be out allowing Aldridge to face lesser defensive opponents in my opinion. We have another cheapest price of the year alert here and that’s a big reason I feel safe with LMA. At this price he has a 7X to 8X ceiling and his ownership should be driven down some due to the terrible performance last night.
Carmelo Anthony – ($5,500)
When McCollum, Jones Jr, and Nurkic are off the floor Anthony sees a usage increase of 6.2%. That brings his usage rate to 27% second to only Lillard without the listed players. His fantasy points per minute during that time is good for this price at .92 points. The minutes have been great recently as he seen 35 minutes or more in two straight games. Melo draws an amazing matchup with Chicago who is second fastest in pace and has surrendered the fourth most fantasy points to power forwards this year.
Center
Mason Plumlee – ($5,400)
This isn’t a flashy usage play but Plumlee is looking in the eyes of an amazing spot. Golden state has been third fastest in the league and has surrendered the fourth most fantasy points to centers this season. Another positive for Plumlee is that Golden State has the lowest rebound percentage this season. That looks good for a man coming in with three straight double-doubles coming into this game. A great matchup awaits Plumlee and he has all the potential to capitalize here.
Xavier Tillman – ($3,500)
Tillman has been a very solid value play before Valanciunas went out and now he is still low priced. In his last five games Tillman has recorded at least 18 fantasy points in all five games. His last two games seen him accumulate 28 and 29 minutes which I expect to remain the same with Valanciunas out. In both of those games Tillman gathered 25 fantasy points as he has eclipsed that number in three straight games now. His price should be higher than this but we have a solid value play as a result. Gorgui Dieng is an option as well as his minutes could increase as will but Tillman was over $1,000 cheaper.
Monkey Knife Fight Plays of the Day
Trail Blazers vs Bulls
Zach Lavine – 25.5 points – More – This game should be a track meet with little defense played at all. It wouldn’t surprise me if the total of this game got near 250. Even with the return of Markkanen Lavine has still carried the heavy lifting for Chicago with the highest usage. Portland struggles against shooting guards which is another positive for Lavine.
Damian Lillard – 30.5 points – More – Lillard is going to take as many shots as he feels necessary to keep his team in games. As I mentioned in the Anfernee Simons piece Chicago has really struggled to defend point guards and the big usage without McCollum should continue to benefit Lillard. I don’t think we have seen the ceiling of Lillard when McCollum is off the floor but I do think we see it here against the Bulls.
Closing NBA GPP Picks 1/30
Join myself and the Win Daily staff in Discord Chat, where we keep you updated on all injury news and help you adjust to it accordingly. Slates with around half the teams playing are typically my favorite nights. Making it even more intriguing is we could have the injury news we need early enough to build lineups. Majority of tonight’s spreads are tight which should lead to a fun night of basketball. As usual news can break at any time of day with this COVID era so always be watching. Today is my birthday so I will enjoy tonight and have tomorrow off. Enjoy your weekend and tonight’s NBA slate. Thank you for reading my article NBA GPP Picks 1/30 and good luck on this eight-game slate!
