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Happy New Year! Welcome to the first version of NBA GPP Picks 1/2 for a five-game slate. This slate doesn’t appear to be projected for a ton of points as Cleveland vs Atlanta is the only game over a 220 total for this five game slate. That highest scoring game has opened at a total of 233 favoring Atlanta by 6.5 tonight. Three of these games have a spread more than 8 so picking from the closer games may be important. We look to have minimal injury news other than Evan Fournier and Alec Burks both being questionable. Tj Warren has also recently had surgery on his foot and will miss an extended period. Charlotte and Atlanta are the two teams on the back end of back to backs so those may be teams to watch with news through today. In this article I will be using DraftKings pricing to give my top plays from each position on a point per dollar basis. Let’s get into this exciting five game slate for this Saturday evening!
NBA GPP Picks 12/27
Darius Garland – ($6,000)
First let’s mention the massive minutes that Garland is playing with 37 and 38 minutes his past two games. Cleveland has been running a tight rotation and Dante Exum the only other guard started at SF last game. Having a usage rate of 24% in this matchup with Atlanta should allow Garland to exceed 40 fantasy point for the third time this season. As fast as the Hawks play and the amount of points they surrender this will be Garland’s best fantasy matchup yet. I will have one of the Cleveland guards in my builds.
Lamelo Ball – ($5,500)
Currently playing well in this crowded Charlotte back court, Lamelo is forcing the Hornets to play him. He has a 24% usage rate as a rookie in just five games this season. He has seen over 27 minutes in two straight games, scoring over 30 fantasy points in those games. Those games were not the closest of contests but Charlotte is the largest under dog on this slate at -9.5. Even if this game against Philly gets out of hand Ball is likely to get blowout minutes and that security should allow him to have another 30 fantasy point night.
–SG
Austin Rivers – ($3,700)
Value on this slate may be extremely hard to come by unless news breaks at some point. I like Rivers coming back from injury he played 21 minutes in his first game back and I expect that to increase to 25-27 minutes here. This Knicks team is thin in the back court especially if Burks sits out against and minutes should be plentiful. Before that first game Rivers had yet to practice with the team. Now with practice and potentially more minutes coming his way the fantasy production should only go up.
Victor Oladipo – ($6,700)
Hitting value in every game so far this season Oladipo has been as conistent as it gets. Up to this point he has led his team in usage, and now we take away TJ Warren. In his season opener against these same Knicks, Oladipo scored 35.5 fantasy points on just 28 minutes. As long as this game stays close we should see more minutes and more fantasy production from Oladipo showing us another game above 40 fantasy points.
SF
Brandon Ingram – ($8,100)
In Ingram’s first meeting with Toronto, he had an amazing performance of 61 fantasy points. Leading the Pelicans in both minutes played and usage this season with a 30% usage rate. We can’t ask for a better defensive matchup for Ingram as Toronto allows the most fantasy points to small forwards this season. Toronto is allowing 10.3 assist’s to small forwards which leads the league by more than 1.5 so a triple double wouldn’t be out of the question here. A fantastic matchup and a high usage rate should allow Ingram to smash value tonight.
Cedi Osman – ($4,600)
In Cleveland’s past two games without Kevin Love, Osman has seen a usage rate above 20% in both games. He struggled shooting in those games resulting in him not hitting value. A prime matchup against this speedy Atlanta team that is allowing the sixth most fantasy points to small forwards this season. This price for Osman is also the lowest we have seen it this year
Terrence Ross – ($5,200)
This play leans heavily on if Fournier is out as Ross see’s a 7.8% usage bump without Fournier. With that bump Ross has a 34.2% usage rate without Fournier on the floor. That is an insane usage rate for a player at $5,200. The Fournier news will tell me where to go with this pick if Fournier is out you simply pick Ross and if he plays I wont be interested in Ross.
PF
De’Andre Hunter – ($5,300)
With Gallinari being ruled out for several games, minutes for Hunter are much safer. He has yet to shoot less than ten times in a game this season and has a three-point percentage of 48% to start the year. Cleveland has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to power forwards and that is the best power forward matchup on this slate. The Cavs struggle the most against SF and PF from a fantasy point perspective and I love these Atlanta players priced around 5k specifically Hunter. Having pieces of this high scoring game will be key and Hunter should be a strong consideration for your lineups.
Aaron Gordon – ($5,600)
The main issue so far with Aaron Gordon is the minutes due to Orlando be precautious with him he has only seen 30 minutes once this season. He may have seen 30 minutes against the 76ers if the game wasn’t way way out of hand. His usage rate the last two games has been above 25 percent so having the ball isn’t the issue. If Gordon gets the minutes his upside is well over 40 fantasy points especially if Evan Fournier is absent.
C
Myles Turner – ($6,400)
I want exposure to these Pacers big men against the Knicks centers who have allowed the most fantasy points to centers this young season. I think Sabonis will be the higher owned of these two but he has the hefty price tag. Turner has seen a 2.2% usage bump with Warren off the floor. He already was consistent nearly hitting value in all five games to start the season, now he draws the best matchup you could ask for to this point. The Knicks have allowed centers tons of steals and blocks this season and Turner is averaging an absurd four blocks per game this season. If you don’t play Turner, I recommend playing Sabonis, one of these big men should have a tremendous day.
Domantas Sabonis – ($9,400)
With Tj Warren absent Sabonis is in line for a big day with his 2.8% usage increase bringing his total to a team leading 27% usage. One of these two bigs for Indiana will be in all lineups I submit this evening. The Knicks have not only allowed the most DraftKings points to center but also the most real points to centers. Minutes shouldn’t be a question here either as Sabonis has been on the court at least 37 minutes in four out of their five games. This matchup against the Knicks is pure gold and I will be hammering these Pacers without Warren.
Clint Capela – ($5,200)
It looks as if Capela is fully up to speed and past his injury after playing a season high 30 minutes in last nights game against Brooklyn. Those minutes allowed him his first double double of the year. Cleveland typically plays big with Drummond and Javale Mcgee always roaming the paint so Capela should see however many minutes he can handle. A matchup against the team allowing the seventh most fantasy points to centers will allow him to pay off his cheap price tag as he’s averaging beyond a fantasy point per minute this season.
Knicks vs Pacers game
Julius Randle – 21.5 points (MORE) he is the focal point of this offense. Has yet to play under 35 minutes this season. Randle also leads the team in usage at 26%.
Domantas Sabonis – 20.5 points (MORE) Warren is out. Knicks cant guard centers. read the above write up on Sabonis
Thank you for taking the time to read my NBA GPP Picks 1/2 five game slate breakdown. We currently don’t have much to watch for injury news other than Evan Fournier and Alec Burks being questionable. Although those aren’t stars they are noteworthy names and make other players on their team more enticing. Be prepared to make the right adjustments when news hits with the Discord Chat rooms. The WinDaily staff and I will be in there to answer any questions and help you make the proper adjustments when news strikes. The Hawks have had a couple players on the injury report recently and could elect to rest them on the second half of this back-to-back. I will be starting my builds with one of these Indiana big men leaning more towards Turner given his price. Enjoy your Saturday night and best of luck on your lineups!
