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NBA GPP Picks 1/17
Welcome back to another small four game weekend edition of NBA GPP Picks 1/17. We should have majority of the news we need to build lineups before lock unless something unforeseen happens. Obviously, that would shock absolutely no one now days. A big game I will target this evening is New Orleans vs Sacramento as they are projected for the highest total of 230 points. In this article I will breakdown each game due to the small slate giving my favorite plays from each game based upon my research. In this article I will be referring to DraftKings pricing where Nikola Jokic is the highest priced player at $11,200 facing that stingy Rudy Gobert defense. If no news occurs I love this little four game slate so let’s get into it!
Pace is 1st being the fastest and Def RTG 1st is the best defense.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Oklahoma City Thunder
Pace: 4th Def RTG: 6th Pace: 12th Def RTG: 17th
76ers
Tobias Harris – ($7,800)
Last night without Embiid we saw Harris eclipse a 31% usage rate, unfortunately his shot wasn’t falling. That usage rate was his highest on the season by 5%. It wasn’t a great performance but I hope that will scare people away so I can fire him up again. A slightly better matchup and quicker pace should allow Harris to put that increased usage to good use. I expect lower ownership tonight than the chalky Harris last night, but it’s hard to ignore the 7% usage increase he holds when Embiid and Curry sit. I will roll out Harris again in hopes for a better result.
Shake Milton – ($5,900)
Milton saw a 31.5% usage right in last night’s game against Memphis minus Seth Curry and Joel Embiid. He had a fantastic night scoring 28 real points in route to a 40 point fantasy performance. When Curry and Embiid sit, Milton see’s a higher usage increase than Harris at 8%. Three straight games Shake has scored 34 or more fantasy points and with that high of a usage rate that is unlikely to change here. Milton is a key part of this 76ers team and it is showing as they are missing some key pieces.
Dwight Howard – ($4,800)
As Embiid was absent last night and will be again this evening Howard started in his place. Accumulating 34 minutes of playing time and recorded 18 rebounds, eight points, three blocks and assists. Philly ran a tight rotation of nine guys last night and Bradley only played nine minutes. I love this spot for Howard as he matches up with Isaiah Roby the youngster starting for Al Horford. As long as he gets the minutes again he should be able to get two more points to get that double-double bonus on DK.
Thunder
Isaiah Roby – ($4,200)
In his previous two games with Horford out Roby saw a usage rate above 20%. In those games he has averaged 25 minutes of playing time. Looking deeper into that one of those games was a blowout and the other he was in foul trouble and eventually fouled out. He has paid off this salary in both games without Horford and his minutes could increase if he stays out of foul trouble. When he has started this season for Horford his lowest fantasy production is 24 fantasy points. That was the game in which he fouled out as well, this price is just too cheap. Roby will likely be a popular salary saver and his pivot is Mike Muscala at $3,600.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – ($8,300)
He see’s majority of the usage on this team averaging 26% usage rate on the season and 27.4% with Horford off the floor. He has scored over 50 fantasy points in four of his last five games and we are looking at a pace up spot against the 76ers. The games in which SGA has busted this year have all been massive blowouts, but this game is just a 3.5 point spread in favor of the 76ers. In this pace up spot and having the highest usage on the Thunder I like rolling out SGA in tournaments.
Utah Jazz vs Denver Nuggets
Pace: 23rd Def RTG: 9th Pace: 25th Def RTG: 23rd
Jazz
Donovan Mitchell – ($8,500)
A usage machine Mitchell has been this season averaging 32% usage on the season. He has also had above a 31% usage rate in five of the Jazz last six contests. Denver has struggled defensively as we see with their rating. Shooting guard is the place to attack them as they have given up the sixth most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. As we see the pace here could be extremely slow, I will sprinkle in pieces from this game so Mitchell isn’t a must play.
Jordan Clarkson – ($6,300)
In the most recent two games with Ingles out Clarkson has logged 28 minutes of action in both. His usage rate in those games is 28.5% right around his season average. The uptick in minutes is important here as he has seen closer to 30 minutes with Ingles out. In the three games he’s had above 28 minutes his lowest fantasy production is 31 fantasy points. As I just mentioned with Mitchell Denver struggles most against shooting guards as well.
Nuggets
Jamal Murray – ($7,400)
I won’t be playing Jokic given his hefty price tag facing Rudy Gobert defense. Murray could see an increase in usage given the tough matchup for the Nuggets star big. In Denver’s most recent two game Murray is averaging a 28% usage rate which is up 5% from his season average. Not an ideal matchup for Murray but he did go off for 48 fantasy points in a slow game against the Suns. Murray’s lowest minute total is 29 and both of those were on the same back to back set. He should see his regular mid to upper 30’s in minutes here.
New Orleans Pelicans vs Sacramento Kings
Pace: 26th Def RTG: 9th Pace: 7th Def RTG: 30th
Pelicans
Nickeil Alexander-Walker – ($4,900)
In the previous two games with Lonzo Ball out Alexander-Walker has led New Orleans in usage over Brandon Ingram. A usage of 31.5% in those two games for the starter in place of ball. He gets a prime spot against Sacramento who is bad defensively and plays quick. The Kings have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to shooting guards to make it even better. A beautiful spot here should allow Walker to pay off his highest salary yet this season.
Brandon Ingram – ($8,800)
A couple of tough matchups have hindered Ingram in his two recent games playing both LA teams. A nice rebound spot here for a guy that I don’t think many people will pay up for. He handles majority of the usage on this team regardless of who is in and out. Sacramento has struggled defensively and has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to small forwards this season. Ingram has recorded at least 35 minutes played in six straight games now.
Eric Bledsoe – ($5,500)
I’m not sure if his eye is cleared up yet but I will take a shot on him in tournaments with Ball out his minutes should be safe. Last game without ball Bledsoe had a usage rate of just under 22% and that was his second largest usage on the season. Obviously, this is a prime spot against the Kings who by far rank the worst defensive team in the NBA
Kings
De’Aaron Fox – ($7,900)
These Kings players are all priced about where they should be in my opinion. Fox hogs a big chunk of usage and the remaining usage is distributed evenly among several players. New Orleans has allowed the seventh most fantasy point to point guards which should bowed well for a point guard with a 29% usage rate in his last five games. Fox is likely to be guarded by Alexander-Walker who I would love to pick on if he gets the start here again.
Marvin Bagley – ($5,400)
He is worth a mention because if he does sit there is some salary relief to consider in Nemanja Bjelica. For now we will talk about Bagley who is second on the Kings in usage averaging a 24% usage rate. The Pelicans have allowed the second most fantasy points to power forwards on the season. Six straight games Bagley has scored more than 20 fantasy points, on these smaller slates a weight consistency a little bit more.
Indiana Pacers vs Los Angeles Clippers
Pace: 15th Def RTG: 6th Pace: 29th Def RTG: 25th
Pacers
Malcolm Brogdon – ($8,700)
I will go Brogdon over Sabonis tonight simply due to the price. With Oladipo gone and currently no one to fill his place after the devastating news with Caris LeVert. He has been about as consistent as it gets recording more than 33 minutes in ten straight games and shooting at least 18 times in seven straight. Brogdon has seen a 2% usage bump with Oladipo off the floor bringing his usage to 27% just a tick below Sabonis. It worries me if this game stays close but regardless the minutes should be there for one Indiana’s main offensive options.
Edmond Sumner – ($3,200)
Entering the starting lineup for Oladipo against Golden State Sumner saw a season high 31 minutes. Last game he only saw 20 minutes in part due to a blowout. He has scored at least 17.5 fantasy points in both games without Oladipo and is averaging an 18.5% usage rate in those games. That is solid for a player near minimum price on DraftKings. Even if Jeremy Lamb plays he will likely be limited in his first game off a torn ACL, Sumner’s minutes should be safe for just a bit longer.
Clippers
Paul George – ($9,500)
Man Paul George has been rock solid this season a big reason for that is huge minutes. Prior to the Clippers blowout with Sacramento, George had six straight games with 38 minutes or more. He had also scored a minimum of 42.5 DraftKings points during that span. Vegas doesn’t have this game as a major blowout so minutes should be normal for PG. His 29% usage rate facing young Edmond Sumner defense will allow George a fantastic fantasy night.
Marcus Morris – ($4,000)
Morris seems to be back without limitations as he has three straight contests with over 20 minutes played. He has made those minutes count racking up a usage rate of 24% in his previous two games. Likely to seeing the second unit defense of Doug McDermott, is a favorable matchup for Morris. Being one of the lowest salary Clipper players Morris has a good path to hit value with a usage rate behind only George and Leonard.
NBA GPP Picks 1/17
76ers vs Thunder
Tobias Harris – 20.5 points – More – He see’s the big usage increase without Embiid. Even if Embiid played this amount of points seems low. I think this number again should be much closer to 24.5-25.5. He just surpassed 20.5 last night without Embiid and had a bad shooting night.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 22.5 points – More – The clear focal point of this offense as he leads the usage rate. He has eclipsed this total in four of his last six games, a pace up spot, and Horford out should only increase his shot attempts.
Closing NBA GPP Picks 1/17
I mentioned earlier that I love this slate if we don’t get any crazy news. We have places to be different and not any crazy cheap value that is bound to smash. In a situation we do get news join myself and the WinDaily staff in the Discord Chat to help you make the proper adjustments. Don’t forget to check out the projection models I use those to help build my player pool. Thank you for taking the time to read my article NBA GPP Picks 1/17 breaking down this four game NBA slate. Good luck on all your bets/lineups for this Sunday of NFL playoff football and NBA slate. We will be back next weekend!
