Adam Strangis 
NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/7
The clock continues to wind on the NBA season and we’re down to just a few games per team left. Thankfully, there are teams tonight that still have some wins to chase so there are options, and there are plenty of teams that have stopped caring. Let’s start getting a feel for who we want to chase after on this slate in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/7!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
The Studs
Much like the MVP race, there is a choice to be made at the top of the grid between Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Joel Embiid. Both Jokic and Embiid have been just pouring it on lately and I like both for different reasons. While Jokic has a tougher road in the paint against Steven Adams and the Grizzlies are the best rebounding team in basketball, Jokic does have a 69 DK point game under his belt against Memphis this season. Access the past six games, Joker is averaging 72 DK, 35.8 points, 16.3 boards, and 7.7 assists. He understands the mission of getting into a playoff seed and avoiding the play-in game. Denver’s game also has a total of almost 20 points higher, which is at least part of the puzzle.
This is not to dismiss Embiid who has been averaging 66 DK across his last six with 36.8 points scored and the undersized Toronto frontcourt is not something that should scare us. They are only 20th in points allowed in the paint compared to 11th for Memphis. The only slight concern here is the window to get to the one seed is just about closed. The Sixers may not have that much to play for and their motivation to get the second seed (and potentially a Brooklyn matchup) is questionable. The main reason for Embiid still being well in play is because he’s Cleary trying to win MVP with his remarks and play lately. If he can have his way against Toronto, I’m hard-pressed to see Philly taking him out early.
As far as Giannis goes, the Bucks are tied for third with the Sixers after the Celtics won last night but Giannis could terrify this interior of Boston without Robert Williams. Boston still has a suffocating defense for the most part so Giannis is my clear third of the super studs although to total is 227 points. The Philly game is under 219 as of Wednesday night but that doesn’t worry me about Embiid. Giannis has had two down games in a row (foul trouble in one really hurt) and I’ll be curious to see ownership.
Games That Matter
Magic/Hornets – The Magic side of things will be where will pull some value like Markelle Fultz, Mo Wagner, Ignas Brazdeikis, and Chuma Okeke. These teams are both in the top 10 in pace so Orlando can keep up with Charlotte and neither team is above 19th in defensive rating. We’re on the usual suspects for the Hornets in LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and Terry Rozier. Bridges especially has no defender on the wings to worry about and 1.07 FPPM. I can also get behind P.J. Washington as the Magic are in the bottom 10 in points and rebounds in the paint and that was with more of their starters active.
Spurs/Timberwolves – Somewhat lost in Tuesday’s slate was Minnesota losing to the Washington Wizards and that helped the Nuggets in a big way. The Spurs are locked in their playoff matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans so Dejounte Murray will still be missing from the San Antonio lineup. Tre Jones is still not expensive enough as he’s playing 32-34 minutes and running the offense, flirting with 40 DK in the past two games despite taking just 22 shots in total. He could be about the only player I want from the Spurs as Keldon Johnson and Jakob Poeltl are about at the ceiling. If anyone, Poeltl gets the nod with Minnesota being 17th in points allowed in the paint and rebounds allowed.
On the Minnesota side, knowing Karl-Anthony Towns is still under $10,000 has my eye. San Antonio has just been crushed by big men and in the paint, they are in the bottom five in both points and rebounds allowed. KAT still has 1.37 FPPM and the team lead in usage rate as well at 27.9%. Anthony Edwards is back up to a very scary salary because he’s so prone to duds, but there aren’t many players that have the same style of ceiling. Taking Murray off the court for the Spurs leaves them with a below-average defensive rating of 111.2 so that helps all the Wolves, including D’Angelo Russell. Center might be loaded but KAT is still the man I want from this side of things.
Teams To Monitor
Lakers – The full expectation tonight is that the main three players sit since the season is over, but Malik Monk is very interesting. He’ll be the only player capable of making a shot and could host near 25, and we know that he can get hot in a hurry. Golden State will win this game going away but Monk is still viable here. I’d much rather take value plays from Orlando against Charlotte than try and predict what soon-to-be-ex-coach Frank Vogel does with all these veteran bench players.
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