Steven Polardi NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/6
We’re back in action tonight with six games and plenty of teams on back-to-back situations along with some teams embracing the tank. I’m looking directly at you, Oklahoma City Thunder. Last night they threw a late wrench into things as they started a bunch of players they signed off the street, so they are a total wildcard. Let’s talk about the teams that we have a good feel for already and figure out who we need to focus on in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/6!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Teams That Have to Play and the Studs
Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls, Boston Celtics, Dallas Mavericks, and the Atlanta Hawks
Note – The Suns/Clippers game doesn’t fall into this category because they are both locked into their spots. We could have the Suns be the premier value team since they played last night and could elect to sit multiple starters in a game that means nothing.
I would have to think Luka Doncic is going to be very popular tonight and that’s more than understandable. Dallas is still fighting to host a series in the first round and picking on the lowly Pistons is ripe for a big game from Luka. Since the trade deadline, Doncic has sported a 39.3% usage rate and 1.58 FPPM which are both very impressive marks. Detroit is both inside the top 14 in pace and the bottom eight in defensive rating so this isn’t the worst spot for Doncic to rack up the fantasy points. The Pistons also allow the fifth-highest FG% from deep, something Luka can exploit as he’s shooting 8-10 3-point attempts per game lately.
We’ll see what happens with the Nets since they played last night as well and if they decide to sit anyone. The results of the night before could help dictate that so we’ll revisit them in the morning. It does look like Goran Dragic and Seth Curry could both be out once again, putting almost the entirety of the scoring burden on Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. If they remain in range of moving up to the seven/eight slot in the East, I’ll bet both guys still play here and Durant will continue to be my favorite of the duo. His ceiling has generally been higher since he does a little more in the box score outside of scoring. Since the deadline, KD is at a 32.2% usage rate and 1.43 FPPM, both higher marks than Irving.
Trae Young is in another phenomenal spot against the Wizards since he’s been the entire offense in the past month or so. John Collins last played on March 11th and since then, Young has posted a 1.52 FPPM with a 46.7% assist rate and 65.7% true shooting rate. Washington is 25th in points allowed in the paint and Young is fifth in drives per game at 17.4 and sixth in points scored from that play at 10.2 points per game.
It looks like everyone is going to play in the Boston/Chicago matchup but the salaries aren’t exactly great for any player in this spot. Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, and Zach LaVine are all at fair price points and this game could be on the slower side. Chicago is just 15th in pace and Boston is 24th so if everyone is active, I’m not going after anyone from the top of the pricing grid from this game.
The Wild Card
The Thunder hold some of the keys to this slate because they could give us two punt plays at the flat $3,000 minimum on DK. Both Georgios Kalaitzakis and Zavier Simpson were inserted into the starting lineup last night and OKC basically played a six-man rotation. Do I know who these players are? Not at all. Does it really matter how good they are if they’re getting 30+ minutes at the minimum? Not really, it doesn’t. Now, this game against the Jazz doesn’t start until 9:00 p.m. so we’ll need to hope for some clarity before lock but if these guys remain in the starting lineup, they’re going to be on the table even though the fantasy production wasn’t spectacular by any means. This whole team is up in the air and we’ll have to re-visit during the day but if Aleksej Pokusevski, Theo Maledon, Aaron Wiggins, and others remain out of the lineup, there’s certainly value to chase.
Teams To Monitor
Pistons – Cade Cunningham may not be on the injury report, but he is a frightening player right now after he left last game after just seven minutes to never return. Maybe it was a real injury, maybe it was a tanking injury but they are also without Hamidou Diallo, Kelly Olynyk, Marvin Bagley, Jerami Grant, and Cory Joseph. Depending on who’s active for them, players like Braxton Key and Killian Hayes could have some value but Dallas is a strong defensive squad at seventh in defensive rating.
Knicks – They’ve packed it in for the season but Obi Toppin has seen the door open for a boatload of minutes with no Julius Randle down the stretch. He’s played 31 and 35 minutes in the past two games and is still at a very affordable salary against a defensively deficient Nets team that played last night.
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