Adam Strangis 
NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/3
We’ve got another eight games ahead of us tonight and playoff teams are plentiful. There are a handful of big games and we’ll likely have some teams throwing wrenches into the works on back-to-backs. There are a couple of games that already have my attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/3 so let’s go to work!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Wolves at Rockets
Wolves – They might be 12.5 point favorites to open up Saturday night but after a vital win in Denver on Friday, Minnesota has kicked the door open to potentially get out of the play-in game. They still need Denver to cooperate but the Nuggets play the Lakers at 3:30 so that is a game to keep an eye on heading into lock. The entire Minnesota team is just a hair too cheap and it starts with Karl-Anthony Towns. Big men against the Rockets have been profitable almost every single night this year and we just saw a guy like Damian Jones of the Kings torment Houston for 50+ DK points in each of the past two games, just as an example. The dynamic between KAT, Anthony Edwards, and D’Angelo Russell has produced some volatility from game to game but KAT still leads the team with 1.37 FPPM and a 27.9% usage rate on the season. Edwards himself has been steady as of late, surpassing 40 DK in three straight but he’s starting to get up there so there is a floor baked into his game. He did overcome 6-15 from the floor against the Nuggets and nobody produces for opponents quite like the Rockets. D-Lo is very cheap but I think I’d rather try and catch Patrick Beverly on a good night than pay nearly $7,000 for D-Lo in this matchup.
Rockets – It’s honestly a bit tough to get a run back from Houston due to salaries. While the duo of Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green have thrived in the past two games against the Kings, they are NOT cheap at this point and it’s had to expect them to score 50 DK. Even though the game sports a 243 total already, we have to spend the salary wisely and I have other plans for this salary level. In fairness to these two players, they do have at least a 25% usage rate and KPJ is sitting at 1.24 FPPM. That’s a lot and I won’t say you’re wrong to play him, it’s just other priorities. We also get the return of Alperen Sengun and I’m excited to watch him but I don’t think I can pay $7,000. He’s coming off an injury and if there’s any question about how he reacts, he’ll get yanked off the floor. Normally when Christian Wood is out, Sengun is a primary target with 1.12 FPPM and KAT doesn’t defense, but there is a significant risk in paying that.
Pelicans at Clippers
Pelicans – New Orleans is flying right now with a 7-3 record in their last 10 games and they have a leg up to host the 9/10 play-in game. The Clippers are stagnant in the play-in but they’re still getting guys back to form, but New Orleans needs to continue to win and Brandon Ingram is back to full-go. He was on the court for 35 minutes in the last game and the trio of Ingram, CJ McCollum, and Jonas Valanciunas is meshing well thus far. There is a 287-minute sample now and the FPPM is basically the same for all three (1.19 to 1.21) with Ingram having the advantage in usage rate (29.8%) and assist rate (26.9%). With his salary being the most affordable, he makes the most sense based on what we have seen from the trio. McCollum is not in a bad spot either as the perimeter defense is nothing to write home about for the Clippers. I think JoVal is safe for 5x as the Clips are 23rd or wore in points and rebounds allowed in the paint, but the path to a ceiling game (especially at this salary) is much more narrow than it has been through much of the season.
Clippers – If Paul George is under $10,000 without Kawhi Leonard, he is underpriced. That’s of course not a guarantee that he goes for 6x but the ceiling is absolutely there and it’s notable, especially against the Pelicans who are 17th in defensive rating. The Pelicans are also eighth in FG% allowed from beyond the arc and that can help PG get to a ceiling game. His usage is 34.4% on the season with 1.30 FPPM and I think he gets to 35 minutes tonight. In the last game, the limit was 32 minutes because he didn’t play the overtime period but they’ll need every minute they can get for their play-in game. Past that, I’m off the rest of the Clippers since everyone came up in salary after they went NUTS (looking at you, Robert Covington) against the Bucks. It’s a PG13 game or bust here.
Teams to Monitor
Suns – Phoenix has nothing to play for so Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, and Jae Crowder are all sitting this game out. I would be surprised if Chris Paul and Mikal Bridges played full minutes so the value Suns are going to be where it’s at tonight. JaVale McGee should start and get plenty of run but don’t be afraid to play Bismack Biyombo in deeper GPP formats. McGee isn’t going to play the whole game here and guys like Cameron Payne, Torrey Craig, and possibly Cam Johnson are all in play. I’d want to hear some type of minutes for Johnson as he played 18 in his first game returning from a quad injury, but he’s an important bench player. They’ll want him back to form in this week leading into the playoffs.
Warriors – Jordan Poole is really coming into his own while Steph Curry has missed time and I think it’s clicking for him just how important he can be to this team coming into the postseason. He went off again last night against Utah and now he gets the Kings, who are one of the most defense-deficient teams in the league at 27th in defensive rating. They also rank eighth in pace and we could see Golden State sit some players after a monster win last night against the Utah Jazz. With Curry off the floor, Poole has a 30.7% usage and it will go up if others sit out. Just imagine if Steph, Klay, and Poole are all hitting shots in the postseason. Good luck!
As far as the rest, we’ll need to wait this out based on who’s available. I would suspect at least Draymond Green sits out and probably Klay, but he’s playing a full boatload of minutes now so that’s not set in stone. Poole and possibly one other Warrior is very appealing tonight. Oh, by the way, the Kings are allowing the second-highest FG% from a 3-point distance this year.
Spurs – We expect Dejounte Murray back for this game after a late scratch in the last contest, and he should absolutely feast on this Trail Blazers defense. It’s down to Murray or one of the Sixers stars as far as players that are over $10,000 tonight and Murray is my favorite. It could be a rare slate I don’t jam one in if I’m targeting Poole and Timberwolves, but we’ll see how the day unfolds.
Thunder – They continue to roll with eight men in the rotation and I’d be sticking on the lower end of things as far as salary. If Aleksej Pokusevski is out again, Jaylen Hoard could be a target again because OKC threw him out there for 40 (!) minutes in the last game and he snagged 20 rebounds. I’d be lying if I said I expected that again, but 40 minutes is 40 minutes. Lindy Waters III has been popular lately and could be again but there is some meat on the bone, even if it’s not at the high end of the salary spectrum.
Raptors/Heat – This game may not be the most fun for fantasy but I’m still considering some exposure as both teams should play the starters quite a bit. Miami bleeds 3-point attempts and that bodes well for Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent, and OG Anunoby to some extent. Let’s see if the Heat pull any surprises with their lineup, though I don’t think that happens.
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
