Adam Strangis 
NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10
We’ve come to the last day of the regular season in the NBA and some teams have a little bit to play for, even though every team has locked in a playoff slot in some format. It’s going to make the day tricky as far as who we need to target so let’s talk about it in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 4/10!
Early Slate
Note – Today is far more about who’s got something to play for and who’s active as opposed to metrics. Therefore, the article will be a little bit skimpier because so many guys will be sitting out tonight.
The easy slate is the one I’m most interested in playing because every game has a team that is definitely trying to win. The Brooklyn Nets, Cleveland Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks, and the Charlotte Hornets are the four teams in the play-in tournament in the East and they are all playing in this time slot. The Nets and Cavs are seven and eight heading into tip, one game ahead of Atlanta and Charlotte.
Hornets – The team is in full health outside of Gordon Hayward and I’d be mostly focused on the main three players here in LaMelo Ball, Miles Bridges, and Terry Rozier. Washington is sitting mostly everyone and they are in the bottom eight in defensive rating with everyone active, so this is a good spot for the Hornets.
Nets – We know the drill by now in that Kevin Durant is one of the best players in basketball and I tend to go with him when deciding between investing in him or Kyrie Irving. All the Nets have to do is beat the Pacers and they finish seventh, so they would host the seven/eight playoff game and the Pacers have a defensive rating over 120 since the traded deadline. Andre Drummond should be able to hammer this undersized frontcourt even in limited minutes and the double-double bonus is well within reach.
Cavs – This is one interesting game and we need to see what the Milwaukee Bucks do. Technically, they should want to lose this game to not sit in the two seed because that would likely match them up with the Nets in the first round. If the Bucks sit their guys (everyone is questionable), I’ll be more interested in the Cleveland side and we’ll have plenty of value like Jordan Nwora from the Bucks. They could also decide they don’t care who they play in the first round and play everyone, which would change the slate.
Hawks – This is the best opponent on the slate because the Rockets have played at a top-three pace with a bottom-three defensive rating all year long. Enter Trae Young with a shot at moving up to the seven/eight matchup, but this is where it gets tough. If the Nets and Cavs are both up big in the third quarter, you could see Atlanta pull the starter early because their game wouldn’t matter. My main goal for this slate is to play Young, KD, and use values from the Wizards and Bucks to fill things out.
Main Slate
Three teams likely put forth their best foot on this slate in the Dallas Mavericks, Golden State Warriors, and the Utah Jazz. The Mavs and Warriors are fighting for the three seed and Dallas could win but would need Golden State to lose against the Pelicans to take over the third seed. That’s an issue because the Pelicans can’t move so they may not play their regular staters. That scenario is why I’m hesitant on any Denver Nuggets player as well. Even if they play, they need to win and the Jazz would have to lose to the Trail Blazers for Denver to get up to the five seed. This set of games all happen at 9:30 so the in-game implications are impossible to guess before tip. I’d mostly focus on Utah, Dallas, and Golden State in the late portion and we still need to know if Never is even trying to play anyone.
Lastly, the Celtics and the 76ers both could use a win so we should get their starters through most of the game. The hiccup is if Milwaukee has already lost, one of those teams would have to decide if they want to play to win or stick Milwaukee at the two. It’s something we’ll need to monitor heading into lock and what they want to do.
The Chicago Bulls can’t move and are stuck in the six seed and because of that, they are sitting their starters. Players like Ayo Dosunmu and Patrick Williams are likely going to be chalk and the model will guide us as they take on the Timberwolves. The flip side of this game will be popular as well because Karl-Anthony Towns is out so Naz Reid and others are going to be a strong value. Additionally, D’Angelo Russell and Patrick Beverly are questionable so Minnesota will likely punt this game. It’s going to be where most of the cheap plays come from on this slate.
If you’re playing tonight, be prepared for late-breaking news about who’s sitting out. There are a lot of teams that are stuck in their seed like Memphis, Phoenix, Los Angeles (already sitting guys out), Toronto, Miami, and San Antonio. Things will surely change and this slate is going to be decided in Discord for the most part, with a focus on the Chicago/Minnesota game. The studs to focus the builds on are Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid provided Philly plays hard tonight.
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
