joeborst@zeigler.com 
NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30
Wednesday greets us with another monster slate that will likely be very concentrated on a handful of games as the tanking Thunder, Rockets, Pacers, and Trail Blazers are all on the slate. They will be popular targets but don’t forget the playoff teams tonight when building lineups in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/30!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
The Tanks
Thunder
Most of the field is likely to flock to teams that have strong value plays to fit in the studs they want and that makes plenty of sense. All of these games carry very high totals to start out the night before and I’m betting the two teams that lead interest are the Thunder and Trail Blazers. People will feel good about those teams going bonkers on the last slate and there are still some good plays.
Let’s start with the Thunder and assume that Tre Mann is going to play tonight instead of getting scratched 30 minutes before the game this time around. He’d be looking at 15-20 field goal attempts against a team that is in the bottom five in defensive rating this season and the best approximation of FPPM and usage rate for Mann in this situation is 1.04 and 30.2%. It’s a 208-minute sample size so it’s not the most minutes but it’s also not insignificant either.
If we take Mann off the court, Theo Maledon would be nearly must-play (he’s a strong play regardless) at just $5,400. He played 40 minutes last game and in his 172-minute sample, the FPPM is 1.24 and the usage rate is over 28%. If they are down to eight men again, my main target in addition to Maledon would be Aaron Wiggins who also played 40 minutes and would be expected to carry the offense as well. Aleksej Pokusevski is getting up there for my taste and Isaiah Roby would be hard-pressed to flirt with 40 DK points again, though I’d rather play him than Poku at the salary. Keep in mind, Roby is not very likely to shoot 11-13 from the field including 4-5 from deep again.
Key Run-Back Options – Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Clint Capela
Trail Blazers
They are running a joke of a lineup right now and I’m not banking on Brandon Williams or Drew Eubanks to pay off their salaries over $7,000. This isn’t the Thunder on the other side and while the Pelicans aren’t world-beaters, they are way better than OKC and are fighting for the play-in game. Instead of trying to attack the interior with an expensive Eubanks, I’d much rather drop down a bit in salary and focus on the tier of CJ Elleby, Keon Johnson, and then Greg Brown or Ben McLemore. We still need clarity on if Brown is playing but we’re still looking at nine players in this rotation. Elleby and Johnson likely have the safest minutes but this team is committed to the tank so there are really no sure things at all. McLemore needs to be lights out from beyond the arc and New Orleans is in the bottom 10 in FG% allowed but if his floor is sub-10 DK points. I really want to see what the model does with this team before deciding, but I’m not that interested in paying the premium on this side.
Key Run-Back Options – Brandon Ingram (played 26 minutes, 30 is reasonable here), Jonas Valanciunas, C.J. McCollum
Rockets
We already know that Christian Wood, Dennis Schroeder, and Eric Gordon are out but what complicates matters is the fact Alperen Sengun is questionable. He missed the fourth quarter in the last game so I would be very surprised if he plays in this game but it has a total of 233 points and a spread under three. This could be the most popular game of the night and we’re looking at Kevin Porter, Jalen Green, Jae’Sean Tate, K.J. Martin, and Josh Christopher to carry the load. Christopher especially could be the punt of the night at just $3,900 and he played 30 minutes in the last game and went for 42 DK points. That may not be a huge surprise because when all the Rockets who are missing are off the floor, Christopher leads the team with a 1.10 FPPM and his usage rate is 25.6%m followed by Martin at 0.96. These guys will be premier punts on a slate that has plenty of studs to chase. If Sengun is out, it’s all systems go for the cheaper players.
Key Run-Back Options – Davion Mitchell (expensive), Trey Lyles, Damian Jones, Donte DiVincenzo, Chimezie Metu
The Studs
Nikola Jokic – I mean…where else would we start other than the man who’s going to win MVP again this year? Not only did Giannis possibly jump Joel Embiid last night in the voting (I said what I said), Jokic is one of the primary targets on this slate. Denver is in the softer part of their schedule and Jokic has to put this team on his back every single night. He’s playing 35 minutes some nights and the Indy frontcourt is not built to deal with his size or skill level. His points+rebounds prop will be of interest to me again tonight and Jokic is worth every cent. We touched on this in the last slate but the Pacers have a defensive rating of over 120 points since the trade deadline and that would be the worst mark in the NBA by five points during the regular season. We could get some Indy value, but I would put the other three teams ahead of them. I especially think Houston could be the best fit for the evening.
Luka Doncic – The matchup with Cleveland is more than enticing and if Luka had been playing like he is since February, the MVP race would have a much different tone. He only played 30 minutes flat last night as the Mavs wiped the court with the Lakers and Dallas is fighting to maintain home-court advantage. What is really going to challenge the Cavaliers to stop Doncic is the lack of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, who is listed as out. Doncic drives at the second-highest rate in the league and scores over 12 points per game. With their rim protection taking a massive hit, Luka has immense upside again tonight.
Dejounte Muray – It’s another monster game for the Spurs since the Lakers lost last night because right now, the Lakers are out and the Spurs are in. This is a surprising turn of events and the pace in this game should be wild as both teams are in the top six in pace and the total is 231.5. Murray has been even better than usual since the trade deadline (where the Spurs were sellers) with a 29% usage rate and 1.48 FPPM. He’ll need all the tools working to deal with the Grizzlies who just seem to never lose without Ja Morant and we can expect 35+ minutes once again. I’m not crazy about the rebounding upside here and would find the extra for Luka, but it’s not hard to see Murray lead the slate.
Honorable Mention
Heat/Celtics – This game on the surface is massive as these teams are slugging it out with the 76ers and Bucks for first in the East. However, Boston’s defense has chewed up everyone in their path since the year started and the total is under 220 points. You could argue it’s the most “important” game on the slate, but I do think we have better fantasy spots than this matchup. I will mention Bam Adebayo wince Robert Williams is out for the Celtics because the paint is suddenly way more vulnerable for Boston.
Wolves/Raptors – I don’t have Spicy P going for 40 points again so I really like OG Anunoby because his salary is not high enough for a player that’s on the court for 40 minutes. He only took 12 shots in the last game and still put up 31.5 DK because he’s going to do a little bit of everything. His defense will be needed for Anthony Edwards on the wing and if you’re in the mid-range, OG could be your man. The Raptors are going to continue to play just monster minutes and the Wolves are allowing the third-highest frequency of 3-point attempts in the league. Gary Trent is in a solid bounce-back spot as well, and the same could be said for Karl-Anthony Towns. If Edwards is dealing with OG, KAT has to be the main guy in this matchup.
Suns/Warriors – If Steph Curry was active, I’d be way more excited for this game and it’s fair to point out the spread is just 6.5 points. Still, Phoenix is in a great spot and while you can play Devin Booker any day of the week, it’s the combo of Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton that would have my attention a bit more. Golden State has had some issues with big men from time to time and when you have the Point God feeding you the ball, Ayton can do some damage in the pick-and-roll even though the metrics say Golden State has handled that play type well this year. I don’t exactly see why they’re letting CP3 play 36 minutes at this point since everything is locked up and he’s had some seriously bad injury luck, but an $8,000 Paul has plenty of upside. He’s flirting with 11 dimes per game and when it’s crunch time, he gets to his spot among the best in the league. With the salaries of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson, I’m not likely to force a run-back from the Warriors.
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