Adam Strangis NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31
We’re back to just five games today for the slate but there is not a shortage of playoff-caliber teams that need wins. There is a clear top-flight game that we want exposure to but there are other very strong spots that need attention in the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/31!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Bucks vs Nets
Bucks – There is only one game that is over 229 points for the total to start the night and this game is at 238. If Giannis Antetokounmpo plays 38 minutes again tonight, there’s a very strong chance he could lead the slate in scoring after going for 75 DK in the last game and the matchup on the inside is far easier against the Nets, who rank 14th in points allowed in the paint. The difference between Andre Drummond and Joel Embiid is enormous and the Bucks are only one game behind the one seed. The Nets are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and it’s not hard to see Giannis having a field day in this one. I’m still in on Brook Lopez as well because he sunk under $4,000 and he has enough range to make Drummond come out from under the hoop, which is his comfort zone. The minutes have been there for BroLo and he took 14 shots in the last game. I don’t expect that many again but you’re not paying a big salary for him and he could help fit two studs, potentially. The duo of Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday would not be priority spends for me (I’d prefer Jrue) but it should be noted that if they treat this game as a playoff game, these two will play close to 40 minutes. Even with Giannis, they’re over 1.10 FPPM on the season and that could work even if Giannis eclipses 70 DK.
Nets – Normally, I try to ground everything in this article in stats and metrics but I can’t help but feel like we get Kevin Durant on an absolute mission tonight. He’s averaged over 30 points in the two games he’s played them this year but it’s crunch time and you can’t tell me it doesn’t still burn him the Nets lost in the playoffs last year. I don’t think it’s likely that we can play KD and Giannis together so I’d still give the edge to Giannis but it’s still possible for the Nets to host the 7/8 game. Kyrie Irving has been super quiet for three straight games for fantasy and shooting 17-51 over those contests is driving that slump. That can’t last and the Bucks bleed 3-point attempts allowed so he’s on the table, but Kyrie is more of an MME option for me because driving to the hoop can be a little difficult among Giannis and Lopez. I’m not that interested in going with any other Net with KD and Kyrie soaking up so much usage on the team (well over 30% each).
Cavaliers vs Hawks
Cavaliers – Cleveland is down to the seventh seed while Atlanta is fighting to at least host the 9/10 game and potentially jump into the 7/8, so this is a mother massive game. Cleveland gets to face a bad defense in the Hawks and both teams played last night, so the defense may not be all that intense tonight. I keep feeling like Darius Garland is too expensive but given the situation they are in, maybe he’s at least playable. In the past month when Evan Mobley has been off the court (along with others), Garland is at 1.28 FPPM and a 32.4% usage rate. Seeing as how Trae Young is still a below-average defender, Garland has a path to 60 DK even if it’s a touch more narrow than you’d like for a player this high on the salary grid. Kevin Love may have bit us last night, but he’s far more affordable tonight and only played 26 minutes last night. With Love, you need that shot to work because he’s not going to rack up a ton of stats past that but the matchup and loss of any rim protection demand Love play near 30 minutes again. I’m going to be interested to see how the field reacts to Caris LeVert as well, who had a monster game. He scored 46 DK points on 32 real points and 11-19 for the floor, so there’s not exactly a lot that can be replicated to that line as far as shooting. However, in the past month in the sample from Garland, LeVert s at 0.96 FPPM and that’s with a 46.5% true shooting rate. His talent level is far above that.
Hawks – We touched on this yesterday that the Cavs have no rim protection and Luka Doncic made nine shots within 10 feet and Cleveland allowed 50 points in the paint, nine points higher than the season average. Enter Trae Young, who is averaging 17.3 drives per game and scores 10 points from that play. It’s hard not to be interested when he’s under the $11,000 mark and Young is still carrying extra work on the offensive end with no John Collins. You could also very much talk me into Clint Capela who only had to play 20 minutes last night and he can take advantage of the weakness on the interior. Before last night, Capela played 31 minutes in consecutive games and cleared 40 DK points. Cleveland has nobody to stop him and I am very interested in the mid-range.
Teams To Monitor
Clippers – Coach Ty Lue admitted that Paul George playing 30 minutes wasn’t the plan, but it happened, and getting the toothpaste back in the tube is going to be tough. At $9,400, I’m very intrigued by George but the caveat is he did shoot 6-9 from deep. Either way, walking into 20 shots and PG13 has a 34.2% usage rate and 1.30 FPPM on the season.
Jazz – I’m tempted by Donovan Mitchell after they suffered one of the worst losses of the season and there are not much better get-right spots than the Lakers.
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