Adam Strangis NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/27
We are back for a six-game slate tonight and it would be ideal if we don’t have a speaker fire like last night, wreaking havoc with the slate for about 45 minutes. Most importantly, no fan got hurt and we do have some teams on a back-to-back situation. There are some fun games on the schedule for the NBA DFS Today: Gems with Ghost & Adam 3/26 so let’s start digging in to see what we like!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Hornets at Nets
Hornets – The prices are all reasonable for Charlotte as they take on a Nets squad that played last night who just so happen to lead them by 1.5 games for the eighth seed in the East. The Hornets may not be in any danger of falling out of the play-in scenario but that doesn’t mean that can’t try to get one slot higher and that should mean minutes for LaMelo Ball. He has played as many as 39 (lo and behold, he’s capable) and his ceiling is huge when he’s under $9,000. Just understand that the range of outcomes is large with him and the rest of the Hornets. They’re mostly a young squad and even though Ball has the usage rate lead at 27.6%, the consistency hasn’t always been there. Terry Rozier and Miles Bridges are options as well but Bridges could potentially see KD across the floor on some possessions and that doesn’t sound like much fun. Rozier has been running a little cold lately in his categories outside of points but that’s helped drive the salary down to much more comfortable levels. It’s easier for 40 points to pay off now with 1.05 FPPM and he has among the better matchups if Kyrie decides to defend Ball. Rozier would face the likes of Seth Curry and Goran Dragic, giving him the edge. Lastly, Mason Plumlee could be of slight interest since he’ll likely match whatever minutes Andre Drummond plays, but Drummond is the better rebounder and Plumlee has a very low floor.
Nets – I don’t believe the Nets sit anyone tonight because Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving have missed plenty of games for various reasons this season. Additionally, neither played over 31 minutes last night and the starters altogether played fewer than normal. That was a luxury that pays off tonight as this is the only game with a total of over 230 points (237.5) and both teams are in the top 12 in pace. It’s tough to pick between KD and Kyrie since they both are over 31% for the usage rate and at least 1.41 FPPM. If you want a narrative, I could see Kyrie going off in his first home game of the season and being generally on coast-mode last night. Andre Drummond is still very interesting since he only had to play 18 minutes last night and we all know the score with big men against this Charlotte frontcourt. They get mashed in the paint in rebounding and points allowed and that’s about all Drummond does, and he has a 47.5 DK point game recently against this team. The potential is certainly there and he’s not expensive at all. It’s harder now to grab secondary players with KD and Kyrie active for every game.
Lakers at Pelicans
Lakers – All of a sudden, this game is close to a must-win for both teams. The Lakers are 1.5 games ahead of the Spurs at ninth and the Pelicans are just one game ahead in 10th. The loser real has some heat on them about potentially missing the play-in altogether and it will be difficult to not want to play LeBron James in this scenario. I mean, say what you like about the Lakers being trash (they are) and the hand LeBron had in it (a very large one) but he’s leading the league with 30 points per game. That’s insanity. He’s hit over 60 DK points in each of his last three games and he’s taken at least 26 shots in those three games. I can’t possibly believe that won’t happen again tonight and he’s not even the most expensive player on the board tonight. Give me close to 40 minutes of LeBron and get everyone else out of the way. I’m not really interested in playing anyone else because, for $11,200, I want LeBron to threaten for a triple-double and do everything.
Pelicans – My focus could be very narrow on this side as well. If Brandon Ingram remains out, the duo of Jonas Valanciunas and CJ McCollum has my interest more than anyone else. JoVal gets a dynamite matchup in the paint as the Lakers are in the bottom seven in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. JoVal is in the top 10 in paint touches, paint points, rebounds, and rebound chances this season and nobody is going to stop him on the interior. Since the last time Ingram took the floor, JoVal is averaging 1.46 FPPM and McCollum is at 1.26 with a 30.7% usage rate. We’ve attacked the perimeter of the Lakers all year and night doesn’t change that philosophy. This game has a three-point spread and the total is the second-highest of the night at 229. We need Ingram news but trying to play a Pelican tonight could be a high priority. I’m focused on the studs in what is basically a playoff game.
Warriors at Wizards
Warriors – It appears that Golden State will rest guys on Monday for the second leg of the back-to-back and play everyone tonight. If that remains the case, count me in on Jordan Poole again. I’ll be looking at his assist prop during the day as he’s racked up 25 over the past three games and without Steph Curry in the lineup, he’s averaged 26 points in those nine games. The usage rate is over 30% and the salary isn’t quite expensive enough for a matchup against a team that is bottom six in defensive rating this season. I’m honestly not sure what to make out of Klay Thompson after his explosion in the last game for 55 DK points. The plus side is he played 40 minutes, which is just incredible to see for him personally. That’s tough to totally ignore and he has 1.15 FPPM on the season without Curry. My issue is Klay scored 37 real points and still only scored that 55 DK. Is he going to score almost 40 points every game? With Thompson, any number is possible for him but I’d play Poole for the cheaper salary much more often than not. I’m a little hesitant to go much outside Poole here because Draymond Green hasn’t had the same impact on categories as we’re used to and Andrew Wiggins just doesn’t have the ceiling. Let’s see the starting lineup, as it changed last game. I’m interested in Kevon Looney but want to see if he starts before deciding just how interested.
Wizards – Kyle Kuzma is still out of the Wizards and Kristaps Porzingis has picked up the slack. He’s been a monster with 1.55 FPPM without Kuzma in his limited time with the Wizards and if that stuck, KP is not that expensive because it’s coming with a 31.4% usage rate. He’s not likely to play more than 32 minutes so there is a path to failure, but throwing KP aside is not the move. In the last game, Tomas Satoransky entered the starting lineup and played 29 minutes with 22 DK points. He’s still a value if starting but that is not for sure yet. Deni Avdija went bonkers last game and his salary is still acceptable because starting or not, Avdija will play 30-ish minutes and has 0.87 FPPM on the season without Kuzma. I’m not forcing a Washington run-back but I would go either to the top or punt with Sato if using a Wizard.
Honorable Mention
Jazz/Mavericks – These teams are strong defensively but the game is for sole possession of the fourth seed in the West. If you’re not going with LeBron, Luka Doncic is the path to take and he’s been a monster since the trade deadline. Luka has averaged close to 31 points and the team got shaken up in a positive way for him. On the other side, the trio of Donovan Mitchell, Jordan Clarkson, and Rudy Gobert are all interesting. Mitchell and Gobert were both relatively disappointing in the last game but Bojan Bogdanovic remains out of the lineup. When that is the case, Mitchell is over 36.5% for the usage rate and Clarkson is at 0.99 FPPM. Gobert will face little resistance on the interior and could easily flirt with 50 DK points in this spot.
Teams To Monitor
Celtics – With Al Horford being ruled out, Robert Williams is a significant value at just $6,000 on DK. He needs to match KAT for most of his minutes and he has block upside as well as a potential double-double. Grant Williams should start and is a value play as well. He does only have 0.68 FPPM when Horford is off the court so this isn’t a plug-and-play situation, it’s more of last man in.
You can find us on Twitter @BetsByGhost and @Bucn4life
